Weekly Lines · 2019
Week 8.
15 games and 13 plays, replayed walk-forward on angles chosen from the seasons before 2019. Every number is open.
This week's plays: 7-6, +1.4u flat at -110. Season through week 8: 50-50, -4.7u flat at -110.
| Game | Market | Total | Final |
|---|---|---|---|
 WAS @  MINThu, Oct 24 20:20 ET | MIN +16.5 | 42 | WAS 9 at MIN 19MIN +16.5 closed · WAS covered |
 ARI @  NOSun, Oct 27 13:00 ET | NO +12.5 | 47.5 | ARI 9 at NO 31NO +12.5 closed · NO covered |
 CAR @  SFSun, Oct 27 16:05 ET | SF +4.5 | 41 | CAR 13 at SF 51SF +4.5 closed · SF covered |
 CIN @  LASun, Oct 27 13:00 ET | LA +12 | 48.5 | CIN 10 at LA 24LA +12 closed · LA covered |
 CLE @  NESun, Oct 27 16:25 ET | NE +9.5 | 43 | CLE 13 at NE 27NE +9.5 closed · NE covered |
 DEN @  INDSun, Oct 27 13:00 ET | IND +6 | 41 | DEN 13 at IND 15IND +6 closed · DEN covered |
 GB @  KCSun, Oct 27 20:20 ET | KC -5 | 48 | GB 31 at KC 24KC -5 closed · GB covered |
 LAC @  CHISun, Oct 27 13:00 ET | CHI +3.5 | 41 | LAC 17 at CHI 16CHI +3.5 closed · LAC covered |
 NYG @  DETSun, Oct 27 13:00 ET | DET +6.5 | 49 | NYG 26 at DET 31DET +6.5 closed · NYG covered |
 NYJ @  JAXSun, Oct 27 13:00 ET | JAX +7 | 39.5 | NYJ 15 at JAX 29JAX +7 closed · JAX covered |
 OAK @  HOUSun, Oct 27 16:25 ET | HOU +5 | 52 | OAK 24 at HOU 27HOU +5 closed · OAK covered |
 PHI @  BUFSun, Oct 27 13:00 ET | BUF +1 | 39.5 | PHI 31 at BUF 13BUF +1 closed · PHI covered |
 SEA @  ATLSun, Oct 27 13:00 ET | ATL -7.5 | 48.5 | SEA 27 at ATL 20ATL -7.5 closed · ATL covered |
 TB @  TENSun, Oct 27 13:00 ET | TEN +2 | 45.5 | TB 23 at TEN 27TEN +2 closed · TEN covered |
 MIA @  PITMon, Oct 28 20:15 ET | PIT +14 | 44 | MIA 14 at PIT 27PIT +14 closed · MIA covered |
The plays
A play is an angle with a prior record, staked by that record. The model's number alone is never a play.
The angle board mined, walk-forward record behind each
LAC @ CHI WIN CHI -3.5 1.0u
- model fades them by 2.0+, favorite, better coach, low total (41 or under) 134-86 (61%)
- model fades them by 2.0+, at home, better coach, low total (41 or under) 90-58 (61%)
- model fades them by 2.0+, better coach, low total (41 or under) 163-106 (61%)
- and 1 more angle on this side
NYG @ DET WIN DET -6.5 1.0u
- model fades them by 3.0+, at home, lost last week, in a dome 49-27 (64%)
- model fades them by 3.0+, lost last week, better coach, in a dome 43-24 (64%)
- model fades them by 3.0+, lost last week, worse QB, in a dome 34-22 (61%)
- and 3 more angles on this side
NYJ @ JAC WIN JAC -7 1.0u
- model likes them by 0.5+, big favorite (7+), more rest than the opponent, better record 17-11 (61%)
- model likes them by 0.5+, big favorite (7+), more rest than the opponent, better QB 17-11 (61%)
CLE @ NE WIN NE -9.5 1.0u
- model likes them by 0.5+, big favorite (7+), less rest than the opponent, better QB 17-10 (63%)
- model likes them by 1.0+, big favorite (7+), less rest than the opponent, better QB 15-9 (62%)
ARI @ NO LOSS NO -12.5 1.0u
- model fades them by 1.0+, big favorite (7+), elite QB, in a dome 52-32 (62%)
- model fades them by 1.0+, better QB, better coach, in a dome 91-57 (62%)
SEA @ ATL WIN SEA -7.5 2.0u
- model fades them by 3.0+, better QB, on turf, high total (48+) 30-14 (68%)
- model fades them by 3.0+, big favorite (7+), on turf, high total (48+) 22-13 (63%)
- model fades them by 2.0+, big favorite (7+), on the road, on turf 37-22 (63%)
- and 10 more angles on this side
TB @ TEN LOSS TEN -2 1.0u
- model fades them by 0.5+, less rest than the opponent, won last week, bad QB 12-8 (60%)
CLE @ NE TOTALLOSS Over 43.0 1.0u
- over when rain in the forecast, home team off Monday night 25-10 (71%)
- over when home team off Monday night 158-124 (56%)
CAR @ SF TOTALLOSS Under 41.0 1.0u
- under when windy, low total (41 or under) 87-70 (55%)
DEN @ IND TOTALLOSS Over 41.0 1.0u
- over when on turf, low total (41 or under) 189-147 (56%)
SEA @ ATL TOTALWIN Under 48.5 1.0u
- under when high total (48+), home team a big underdog 37-17 (68%)
- under when home team a big underdog, a new starting QB 64-47 (58%)
NYJ @ JAX TOTALWIN Over 39.5 1.0u
- over when low total (41 or under), road team off Monday night 31-22 (58%)
CIN @ LA TOTALLOSS Over 48.5 1.0u
- over when home team a big favorite, road team travelled 1,500+ miles 104-84 (55%)
Read it straight. Five rules frozen 2026-08-28 before Week 1, git-timestamped, append-only. Flat 1u. Historical: the frozen card went 91-83, +6.8u over 2015-2025, 7 of 11 winning seasons; the weather family 362-334-11, +19.1u over 2010-2025. This season was replayed walk-forward: the angles were chosen on the seasons before it and fired on its games, so nothing here was scored on the games that found it. It is a replay, not a published record. 2026 is the first season we posted before kickoff.