Weekly Lines · 2020
Week 1.
16 games and 9 plays, replayed walk-forward on angles chosen from the seasons before 2020. Every number is open.
This week's plays: 4-5, -1.5u flat at -110. Season through week 1: 4-5, -1.5u flat at -110.
| Game | Market | Total | Final |
|---|---|---|---|
 HOU @  KCThu, Sep 10 20:20 ET | KC +9.5 | 53.5 | HOU 20 at KC 34KC +9.5 closed · KC covered |
 ARI @  SFSun, Sep 13 16:25 ET | SF +7 | 48.5 | ARI 24 at SF 20SF +7 closed · ARI covered |
 CHI @  DETSun, Sep 13 13:00 ET | DET +2.5 | 42.5 | CHI 27 at DET 23DET +2.5 closed · CHI covered |
 CLE @  BALSun, Sep 13 13:00 ET | BAL +7 | 47 | CLE 6 at BAL 38BAL +7 closed · BAL covered |
 DAL @  LASun, Sep 13 20:20 ET | LA +1 | 52 | DAL 17 at LA 20LA +1 closed · LA covered |
 GB @  MINSun, Sep 13 13:00 ET | MIN +1 | 45 | GB 43 at MIN 34MIN +1 closed · GB covered |
 IND @  JAXSun, Sep 13 13:00 ET | JAX -7 | 44 | IND 20 at JAX 27JAX -7 closed · JAX covered |
 LAC @  CINSun, Sep 13 16:05 ET | CIN -2.5 | 41.5 | LAC 16 at CIN 13CIN -2.5 closed · LAC covered |
 LV @  CARSun, Sep 13 13:00 ET | CAR -3 | 48 | LV 34 at CAR 30CAR -3 closed · LV covered |
 MIA @  NESun, Sep 13 13:00 ET | NE +7.5 | 41.5 | MIA 11 at NE 21NE +7.5 closed · NE covered |
 NYJ @  BUFSun, Sep 13 13:00 ET | BUF +6.5 | 39.5 | NYJ 17 at BUF 27BUF +6.5 closed · BUF covered |
 PHI @  WASSun, Sep 13 13:00 ET | WAS -5.5 | 41.5 | PHI 17 at WAS 27WAS -5.5 closed · WAS covered |
 SEA @  ATLSun, Sep 13 13:00 ET | ATL +1 | 49.5 | SEA 38 at ATL 25ATL +1 closed · SEA covered |
 TB @  NOSun, Sep 13 16:25 ET | NO +4 | 48.5 | TB 23 at NO 34NO +4 closed · NO covered |
 PIT @  NYGMon, Sep 14 19:15 ET | NYG -6 | 44 | PIT 26 at NYG 16NYG -6 closed · PIT covered |
 TEN @  DENMon, Sep 14 22:10 ET | DEN -3 | 41 | TEN 16 at DEN 14DEN -3 closed · DEN covered |
The plays
A play is an angle with a prior record, staked by that record. The model's number alone is never a play.
The angle board mined, walk-forward record behind each
CHI @ DET - model fades them by 3.0+, better coach, division game, in a dome 41-23 (64%)
- model fades them by 2.0+, better coach, division game, in a dome 58-37 (61%)
IND @ JAC - model likes them by 2.0+, big underdog (7+), bad QB, division game 21-14 (60%)
IND @ JAX TOTAL- under when rain in the forecast, division game 120-94 (56%)
TB @ NO TOTAL- under when high total (48+), division game 143-107 (57%)
ARI @ SF TOTAL- under when high total (48+), division game 143-107 (57%)
TEN @ DEN TOTAL- over when low total (41 or under), early season 209-170 (55%)
LAC @ CIN TOTAL- over when early season, road team travelled 1,500+ miles 158-126 (56%)
- over when a team looking ahead to a division game, road team travelled 1,500+ miles 248-201 (55%)
LV @ CAR TOTAL- over when early season, road team travelled 1,500+ miles 158-126 (56%)
- over when a team looking ahead to a division game, road team travelled 1,500+ miles 248-201 (55%)
SEA @ ATL TOTAL- over when early season, road team travelled 1,500+ miles 158-126 (56%)
Read it straight. Five rules frozen 2026-08-28 before Week 1, git-timestamped, append-only. Flat 1u. Historical: the frozen card went 91-83, +6.8u over 2015-2025, 7 of 11 winning seasons; the weather family 362-334-11, +19.1u over 2010-2025. This season was replayed walk-forward: the angles were chosen on the seasons before it and fired on its games, so nothing here was scored on the games that found it. It is a replay, not a published record. 2026 is the first season we posted before kickoff.