Weekly Lines · 2020
Week 15.
16 games and 14 plays, replayed walk-forward on angles chosen from the seasons before 2020. Every number is open.
This week's plays: 6-8, -1.9u flat at -110. Season through week 15: 86-99, -30.3u flat at -110.
| Game | Market | Total | Final |
|---|---|---|---|
 LAC @  LVThu, Dec 17 20:20 ET | LV +3.5 | 52 | LAC 30 at LV 27LV +3.5 closed · LAC covered |
 BUF @  DENSat, Dec 19 16:30 ET | DEN -5.5 | 49 | BUF 48 at DEN 19DEN -5.5 closed · BUF covered |
 CAR @  GBSat, Dec 19 20:15 ET | GB +9.5 | 53 | CAR 16 at GB 24GB +9.5 closed · CAR covered |
 CHI @  MINSun, Dec 20 13:00 ET | MIN +2.5 | 47.5 | CHI 33 at MIN 27MIN +2.5 closed · CHI covered |
 CLE @  NYGSun, Dec 20 20:20 ET | NYG -6 | 44.5 | CLE 20 at NYG 6NYG -6 closed · CLE covered |
 DET @  TENSun, Dec 20 13:00 ET | TEN +9.5 | 54.5 | DET 25 at TEN 46TEN +9.5 closed · TEN covered |
 HOU @  INDSun, Dec 20 13:00 ET | IND +7.5 | 52.5 | HOU 20 at IND 27IND +7.5 closed · HOU covered |
 JAX @  BALSun, Dec 20 13:00 ET | BAL +13 | 49.5 | JAX 14 at BAL 40BAL +13 closed · BAL covered |
 KC @  NOSun, Dec 20 16:25 ET | NO -2.5 | 53.5 | KC 32 at NO 29NO -2.5 closed · KC covered |
 NE @  MIASun, Dec 20 13:00 ET | MIA -1.5 | 40 | NE 12 at MIA 22MIA -1.5 closed · MIA covered |
 NYJ @  LASun, Dec 20 16:05 ET | LA +17.5 | 44.5 | NYJ 23 at LA 20LA +17.5 closed · NYJ covered |
 PHI @  ARISun, Dec 20 16:05 ET | ARI +6.5 | 49.5 | PHI 26 at ARI 33ARI +6.5 closed · ARI covered |
 SEA @  WASSun, Dec 20 13:00 ET | WAS -6 | 44.5 | SEA 20 at WAS 15WAS -6 closed · WAS covered |
 SF @  DALSun, Dec 20 13:00 ET | DAL -4 | 46 | SF 33 at DAL 41DAL -4 closed · DAL covered |
 TB @  ATLSun, Dec 20 13:00 ET | ATL -6 | 49.5 | TB 31 at ATL 27ATL -6 closed · ATL covered |
 PIT @  CINMon, Dec 21 20:15 ET | CIN -14.5 | 40.5 | PIT 17 at CIN 27CIN -14.5 closed · CIN covered |
The plays
A play is an angle with a prior record, staked by that record. The model's number alone is never a play.
The angle board mined, walk-forward record behind each
CLE @ NYG LOSS CLE -6 1.0u
- model fades them by 2.0+, on the road, less rest than the opponent, on turf 37-20 (65%)
- model fades them by 3.0+, on the road, less rest than the opponent, on turf 23-15 (60%)
- model fades them by 1.0+, on the road, less rest than the opponent, on turf 49-32 (60%)
HOU @ IND LOSS HOU +7.5 2.0u
- model fades them by 1.0+, got blown out last week, worse record, in a dome 40-19 (68%)
- model fades them by 1.0+, worse record, better coach, in a dome 62-36 (63%)
- model fades them by 0.5+, worse record, better coach, in a dome 71-42 (63%)
- and 5 more angles on this side
NE @ MIA WIN NE -1.5 3.0u
- model fades them by 3.0+, more rest than the opponent, got blown out last week, better coach 17-5 (77%)
- model fades them by 3.0+, favorite, more rest than the opponent, got blown out last week 25-13 (66%)
- model fades them by 2.0+, more rest than the opponent, got blown out last week, better coach 19-10 (66%)
- and 13 more angles on this side
PIT @ CIN WIN PIT -14.5 1.0u
- model fades them by 3.0+, lost last week, better coach, low total (41 or under) 64-39 (62%)
- model fades them by 3.0+, better coach, low total (41 or under) 125-78 (62%)
- model fades them by 2.0+, favorite, better coach, low total (41 or under) 142-89 (62%)
- and 5 more angles on this side
TB @ ATL WIN TB -6 1.0u
- model fades them by 2.0+, favorite, won last week, in a dome 114-76 (60%)
BUF @ DEN TOTALLOSS Under 49.0 1.0u
- under when windy 205-160 (56%)
JAX @ BAL TOTALWIN Over 49.5 1.0u
- over when high total (48+), home team off Monday night 41-23 (64%)
- over when home team off Monday night 169-134 (56%)
- over when late season, home team off Monday night 53-42 (56%)
TB @ ATL TOTALLOSS Under 49.5 1.0u
- under when high total (48+), division game 143-107 (57%)
HOU @ IND TOTALWIN Under 52.5 1.0u
- under when high total (48+), division game 143-107 (57%)
LAC @ LV TOTALLOSS Under 52.0 1.0u
- under when high total (48+), division game 143-107 (57%)
PIT @ CIN TOTALLOSS Under 40.5 1.0u
- under when home team a big underdog, a new starting QB 68-53 (56%)
PHI @ ARI TOTALWIN Over 49.5 1.0u
- over when a team looking ahead to a division game, road team travelled 1,500+ miles 248-201 (55%)
NYJ @ LA TOTALLOSS Over 44.5 1.0u
- over when a team looking ahead to a division game, road team travelled 1,500+ miles 248-201 (55%)
SEA @ WAS TOTALLOSS Over 44.5 1.0u
- over when a team looking ahead to a division game, road team travelled 1,500+ miles 248-201 (55%)
Read it straight. Five rules frozen 2026-08-28 before Week 1, git-timestamped, append-only. Flat 1u. Historical: the frozen card went 91-83, +6.8u over 2015-2025, 7 of 11 winning seasons; the weather family 362-334-11, +19.1u over 2010-2025. This season was replayed walk-forward: the angles were chosen on the seasons before it and fired on its games, so nothing here was scored on the games that found it. It is a replay, not a published record. 2026 is the first season we posted before kickoff.