Weekly Lines · 2020
Week 7.
14 games and 10 plays, replayed walk-forward on angles chosen from the seasons before 2020. Every number is open.
This week's plays: 4-6, -3.7u flat at -110. Season through week 7: 38-44, -12.0u flat at -110.
| Game | Market | Total | Final |
|---|---|---|---|
 NYG @  PHIThu, Oct 22 20:20 ET | PHI +5 | 44.5 | NYG 21 at PHI 22PHI +5 closed · NYG covered |
 BUF @  NYJSun, Oct 25 13:00 ET | NYJ -9.5 | 47 | BUF 18 at NYJ 10NYJ -9.5 closed · NYJ covered |
 CAR @  NOSun, Oct 25 13:00 ET | NO +7 | 49.5 | CAR 24 at NO 27NO +7 closed · CAR covered |
 CLE @  CINSun, Oct 25 13:00 ET | CIN -4.5 | 50 | CLE 37 at CIN 34CIN -4.5 closed · CIN covered |
 DAL @  WASSun, Oct 25 13:00 ET | WAS -1 | 44.5 | DAL 3 at WAS 25WAS -1 closed · WAS covered |
 DET @  ATLSun, Oct 25 13:00 ET | ATL +1 | 54 | DET 23 at ATL 22ATL +1 closed · DET covered |
 GB @  HOUSun, Oct 25 13:00 ET | HOU -2.5 | 55.5 | GB 35 at HOU 20HOU -2.5 closed · GB covered |
 JAX @  LACSun, Oct 25 16:25 ET | LAC +8 | 48 | JAX 29 at LAC 39LAC +8 closed · LAC covered |
 KC @  DENSun, Oct 25 16:25 ET | DEN -7 | 46 | KC 43 at DEN 16DEN -7 closed · KC covered |
 PIT @  TENSun, Oct 25 13:00 ET | TEN +1 | 51 | PIT 27 at TEN 24TEN +1 closed · PIT covered |
 SEA @  ARISun, Oct 25 20:20 ET | ARI -3.5 | 55.5 | SEA 34 at ARI 37ARI -3.5 closed · ARI covered |
 SF @  NESun, Oct 25 16:25 ET | NE +3 | 44 | SF 33 at NE 6NE +3 closed · SF covered |
 TB @  LVSun, Oct 25 16:05 ET | LV -3.5 | 51.5 | TB 45 at LV 20LV -3.5 closed · TB covered |
 CHI @  LAMon, Oct 26 20:15 ET | LA +6.5 | 44 | CHI 10 at LA 24LA +6.5 closed · LA covered |
The plays
A play is an angle with a prior record, staked by that record. The model's number alone is never a play.
The angle board mined, walk-forward record behind each
CAR @ NO - model likes them by 0.5+, on the road, less rest than the opponent, division game 57-32 (64%)
- model likes them by 1.0+, on the road, less rest than the opponent, division game 51-32 (61%)
CLE @ CIN - model likes them by 0.5+, on the road, got blown out last week, division game 62-39 (61%)
- model likes them by 0.5+, favorite, got blown out last week, division game 18-12 (60%)
DAL @ WAS - model fades them by 0.5+, favorite, got blown out last week, worse QB 56-35 (62%)
- model fades them by 1.0+, favorite, got blown out last week, worse QB 53-34 (61%)
GB @ HOU - model fades them by 2.0+, got blown out last week, better coach, in a dome 22-12 (65%)
- model fades them by 3.0+, got blown out last week, better coach, in a dome 15-9 (62%)
- model fades them by 3.0+, lost last week, better coach, in a dome 48-30 (62%)
- and 1 more angle on this side
JAC @ LAC - model fades them by 1.0+, big favorite (7+), in a dome, high total (48+) 29-15 (66%)
- model fades them by 2.0+, big favorite (7+), in a dome, high total (48+) 24-13 (65%)
- model fades them by 2.0+, better QB, on turf, high total (48+) 51-30 (63%)
- and 4 more angles on this side
JAX @ LAC TOTAL- over when home team off Monday night, road team travelled 1,500+ miles 39-19 (67%)
- over when high total (48+), home team off Monday night 41-23 (64%)
- over when on turf, home team off Monday night 79-58 (58%)
- and 4 more angles on this side
KC @ DEN TOTAL- under when rain in the forecast, division game 120-94 (56%)
DAL @ WAS TOTAL- under when rain in the forecast, division game 120-94 (56%)
- under when rain in the forecast, a new starting QB 89-70 (56%)
CLE @ CIN TOTAL- under when high total (48+), division game 143-107 (57%)
SF @ NE TOTAL- over when a team looking ahead to a division game, road team travelled 1,500+ miles 248-201 (55%)
Read it straight. Five rules frozen 2026-08-28 before Week 1, git-timestamped, append-only. Flat 1u. Historical: the frozen card went 91-83, +6.8u over 2015-2025, 7 of 11 winning seasons; the weather family 362-334-11, +19.1u over 2010-2025. This season was replayed walk-forward: the angles were chosen on the seasons before it and fired on its games, so nothing here was scored on the games that found it. It is a replay, not a published record. 2026 is the first season we posted before kickoff.