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Weekly Lines · 2020

Week 17.

16 games and 18 plays, replayed walk-forward on angles chosen from the seasons before 2020. Every number is open.

This week's plays: 9-9, -0.1u flat at -110. Season through week 17: 103-111, -24.7u flat at -110.

GameMarketTotalFinal
ARI @ LASun, Jan 3 16:25 ETLA +142ARI 7 at LA 18LA +1 closed · LA covered
ATL @ TBSun, Jan 3 13:00 ETTB +7.551ATL 27 at TB 44TB +7.5 closed · TB covered
BAL @ CINSun, Jan 3 13:00 ETCIN -13.546BAL 38 at CIN 3CIN -13.5 closed · BAL covered
DAL @ NYGSun, Jan 3 13:00 ETNYG -1.544.5DAL 19 at NYG 23NYG -1.5 closed · NYG covered
GB @ CHISun, Jan 3 16:25 ETCHI -4.548.5GB 35 at CHI 16CHI -4.5 closed · GB covered
JAX @ INDSun, Jan 3 16:25 ETIND +15.548JAX 14 at IND 28IND +15.5 closed · JAX covered
LAC @ KCSun, Jan 3 16:25 ETKC -743LAC 38 at KC 21KC -7 closed · LAC covered
LV @ DENSun, Jan 3 16:25 ETDEN -2.550.5LV 32 at DEN 31DEN -2.5 closed · DEN covered
MIA @ BUFSun, Jan 3 13:00 ETBUF -3.542.5MIA 26 at BUF 56BUF -3.5 closed · BUF covered
MIN @ DETSun, Jan 3 13:00 ETDET -354MIN 37 at DET 35DET -3 closed · DET covered
NO @ CARSun, Jan 3 16:25 ETCAR -647NO 33 at CAR 7CAR -6 closed · NO covered
NYJ @ NESun, Jan 3 13:00 ETNE +341NYJ 14 at NE 28NE +3 closed · NE covered
PIT @ CLESun, Jan 3 13:00 ETCLE +10.545PIT 22 at CLE 24CLE +10.5 closed · PIT covered
SEA @ SFSun, Jan 3 16:25 ETSF -745SEA 26 at SF 23SF -7 closed · SF covered
TEN @ HOUSun, Jan 3 16:25 ETHOU -755.5TEN 41 at HOU 38HOU -7 closed · HOU covered
WAS @ PHISun, Jan 3 20:20 ETPHI -6.543.5WAS 20 at PHI 14PHI -6.5 closed · PHI covered
The market line as posted, and how each game finished.

The plays

A play is an angle with a prior record, staked by that record. The model's number alone is never a play.

The angle board mined, walk-forward record behind each

BAL @ CIN
LOSS BAL -13.5 1.0u
  • model fades them by 2.0+, on the road, blew someone out last week, better coach 73-45 (62%)
  • model fades them by 1.0+, on the road, blew someone out last week, better coach 89-58 (60%)
  • model fades them by 0.5+, on the road, blew someone out last week, better coach 100-66 (60%)
JAC @ IND
LOSS JAC +15.5 3.0u
  • model fades them by 2.0+, got blown out last week, worse record, in a dome 34-14 (71%)
  • model fades them by 2.0+, got blown out last week, division game, in a dome 31-14 (69%)
  • model fades them by 1.0+, got blown out last week, worse record, in a dome 40-19 (68%)
  • and 6 more angles on this side
NYJ @ NE
WIN NE -3 1.0u
  • model likes them by 0.5+, less rest than the opponent, got blown out last week, division game 29-19 (60%)
  • model likes them by 0.5+, favorite, got blown out last week, division game 18-12 (60%)
DAL @ NYG
WIN NYG +1.5 1.0u
  • model likes them by 2.0+, at home, bad QB, on turf 20-12 (62%)
SEA @ SF
WIN SEA -7 2.0u
  • model fades them by 3.0+, big favorite (7+), elite QB, in a dome 31-16 (66%)
  • model fades them by 0.5+, elite QB, division game, in a dome 47-25 (65%)
  • model fades them by 2.0+, big favorite (7+), elite QB, in a dome 46-25 (65%)
  • and 17 more angles on this side
TEN @ HOU
WIN TEN -7 3.0u
  • model fades them by 3.0+, got blown out last week, division game, in a dome 23-8 (74%)
  • model fades them by 3.0+, big favorite (7+), in a dome, high total (48+) 15-6 (71%)
  • model fades them by 3.0+, better QB, in a dome, high total (48+) 22-9 (71%)
  • and 33 more angles on this side
NYJ @ NE TOTAL
WIN Over 41.0 1.0u
  • over when line inside 3, home team off Monday night 69-50 (58%)
  • over when home team off Monday night 169-134 (56%)
  • over when late season, home team off Monday night 53-42 (56%)
  • and 1 more angle on this side
WAS @ PHI TOTAL
WIN Under 43.5 1.0u
  • under when rain in the forecast, division game 120-94 (56%)
  • under when rain in the forecast, a new starting QB 89-70 (56%)
NO @ CAR TOTAL
WIN Under 47.0 1.0u
  • under when rain in the forecast, division game 120-94 (56%)
GB @ CHI TOTAL
LOSS Under 48.5 1.0u
  • under when high total (48+), division game 143-107 (57%)
  • under when rain in the forecast, division game 120-94 (56%)
ATL @ TB TOTAL
LOSS Under 51.0 1.0u
  • under when high total (48+), division game 143-107 (57%)
  • under when rain in the forecast, division game 120-94 (56%)
LV @ DEN TOTAL
LOSS Under 50.5 1.0u
  • under when high total (48+), division game 143-107 (57%)
TEN @ HOU TOTAL
LOSS Under 55.5 1.0u
  • under when high total (48+), home team a big underdog 42-18 (70%)
  • under when high total (48+), division game 143-107 (57%)
JAX @ IND TOTAL
WIN Under 48.0 1.0u
  • under when high total (48+), division game 143-107 (57%)
MIN @ DET TOTAL
LOSS Under 54.0 1.0u
  • under when high total (48+), division game 143-107 (57%)
LAC @ KC TOTAL
LOSS Under 43.0 1.0u
  • under when home team a big underdog, a new starting QB 68-53 (56%)
SEA @ SF TOTAL
LOSS Under 45.0 1.0u
  • under when home team a big underdog, a new starting QB 68-53 (56%)
BAL @ CIN TOTAL
WIN Under 46.0 1.0u
  • under when home team a big underdog, a new starting QB 68-53 (56%)

Read it straight. Five rules frozen 2026-08-28 before Week 1, git-timestamped, append-only. Flat 1u. Historical: the frozen card went 91-83, +6.8u over 2015-2025, 7 of 11 winning seasons; the weather family 362-334-11, +19.1u over 2010-2025. This season was replayed walk-forward: the angles were chosen on the seasons before it and fired on its games, so nothing here was scored on the games that found it. It is a replay, not a published record. 2026 is the first season we posted before kickoff.

← Week 16 The 2020 record

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