Weekly Lines · 2020
Week 11.
14 games and 15 plays, replayed walk-forward on angles chosen from the seasons before 2020. Every number is open.
This week's plays: 11-4, +7.6u flat at -110. Season through week 11: 66-68, -14.9u flat at -110.
| Game | Market | Total | Final |
|---|---|---|---|
 ARI @  SEAThu, Nov 19 20:20 ET | SEA +3 | 56.5 | ARI 21 at SEA 28SEA +3 closed · SEA covered |
 ATL @  NOSun, Nov 22 13:00 ET | NO +3.5 | 49.5 | ATL 9 at NO 24NO +3.5 closed · NO covered |
 CIN @  WASSun, Nov 22 13:00 ET | WAS +2 | 48 | CIN 9 at WAS 20WAS +2 closed · WAS covered |
 DAL @  MINSun, Nov 22 16:25 ET | MIN +7 | 50 | DAL 31 at MIN 28MIN +7 closed · DAL covered |
 DET @  CARSun, Nov 22 13:00 ET | CAR -3 | 47 | DET 0 at CAR 20CAR -3 closed · CAR covered |
 GB @  INDSun, Nov 22 16:25 ET | IND +1.5 | 52 | GB 31 at IND 34IND +1.5 closed · IND covered |
 KC @  LVSun, Nov 22 20:20 ET | LV -7.5 | 56.5 | KC 35 at LV 31LV -7.5 closed · LV covered |
 MIA @  DENSun, Nov 22 16:05 ET | DEN -4 | 46 | MIA 13 at DEN 20DEN -4 closed · DEN covered |
 NE @  HOUSun, Nov 22 13:00 ET | HOU -2.5 | 49.5 | NE 20 at HOU 27HOU -2.5 closed · HOU covered |
 NYJ @  LACSun, Nov 22 16:05 ET | LAC +10 | 47 | NYJ 28 at LAC 34LAC +10 closed · NYJ covered |
 PHI @  CLESun, Nov 22 13:00 ET | CLE +2.5 | 45.5 | PHI 17 at CLE 22CLE +2.5 closed · CLE covered |
 PIT @  JAXSun, Nov 22 13:00 ET | JAX -11 | 47 | PIT 27 at JAX 3JAX -11 closed · PIT covered |
 TEN @  BALSun, Nov 22 13:00 ET | BAL +6 | 50.5 | TEN 30 at BAL 24BAL +6 closed · TEN covered |
 LA @  TBMon, Nov 23 20:15 ET | TB +4 | 47.5 | LA 27 at TB 24TB +4 closed · LA covered |
The plays
A play is an angle with a prior record, staked by that record. The model's number alone is never a play.
The angle board mined, walk-forward record behind each
GB @ IND - model fades them by 1.0+, underdog, less rest than the opponent, better record 16-7 (70%)
- model fades them by 0.5+, underdog, less rest than the opponent, better coach 35-20 (64%)
- model fades them by 1.0+, underdog, less rest than the opponent, better coach 28-17 (62%)
- and 3 more angles on this side
NYJ @ LAC - model fades them by 3.0+, at home, lost last week, in a dome 53-30 (64%)
- model fades them by 2.0+, less rest than the opponent, better QB, on turf 32-20 (62%)
NE @ HOU - model fades them by 3.0+, won last week, in a dome, high total (48+) 31-19 (62%)
- model fades them by 2.0+, favorite, won last week, in a dome 114-76 (60%)
PIT @ JAC - model fades them by 1.0+, on the road, blew someone out last week, better coach 89-58 (60%)
- model fades them by 0.5+, on the road, blew someone out last week, better coach 100-66 (60%)
ARI @ SEA - model likes them by 1.0+, lost last week, elite QB, on turf 71-47 (60%)
DAL @ MIN TOTAL- over when high total (48+), home team off Monday night 41-23 (64%)
- over when on turf, home team off Monday night 79-58 (58%)
- over when a team looking ahead to a division game, home team off Monday night 97-73 (57%)
- and 2 more angles on this side
DET @ CAR TOTAL- under when rain in the forecast, a new starting QB 89-70 (56%)
PHI @ CLE TOTAL- over when under 40 degrees, line inside 3 70-56 (56%)
KC @ LV TOTAL- under when high total (48+), home team a big underdog 42-18 (70%)
- under when high total (48+), division game 143-107 (57%)
ATL @ NO TOTAL- under when high total (48+), division game 143-107 (57%)
ARI @ SEA TOTAL- under when high total (48+), division game 143-107 (57%)
PIT @ JAX TOTAL- under when home team a big underdog, a new starting QB 68-53 (56%)
LA @ TB TOTAL- over when a team looking ahead to a division game, road team travelled 1,500+ miles 248-201 (55%)
MIA @ DEN TOTAL- over when a team looking ahead to a division game, road team travelled 1,500+ miles 248-201 (55%)
NYJ @ LAC TOTAL- over when a team looking ahead to a division game, road team travelled 1,500+ miles 248-201 (55%)
Read it straight. Five rules frozen 2026-08-28 before Week 1, git-timestamped, append-only. Flat 1u. Historical: the frozen card went 91-83, +6.8u over 2015-2025, 7 of 11 winning seasons; the weather family 362-334-11, +19.1u over 2010-2025. This season was replayed walk-forward: the angles were chosen on the seasons before it and fired on its games, so nothing here was scored on the games that found it. It is a replay, not a published record. 2026 is the first season we posted before kickoff.