Weekly Lines · 2020
Week 5.
14 games and 9 plays, replayed walk-forward on angles chosen from the seasons before 2020. Every number is open.
This week's plays: 6-3, +3.6u flat at -110. Season through week 5: 29-28, -0.1u flat at -110.
| Game | Market | Total | Final |
|---|---|---|---|
 TB @  CHIThu, Oct 8 20:20 ET | CHI -3.5 | 44 | TB 19 at CHI 20CHI -3.5 closed · CHI covered |
 ARI @  NYJSun, Oct 11 13:00 ET | NYJ -7 | 48.5 | ARI 30 at NYJ 10NYJ -7 closed · ARI covered |
 CAR @  ATLSun, Oct 11 13:00 ET | ATL +2.5 | 53.5 | CAR 23 at ATL 16ATL +2.5 closed · CAR covered |
 CIN @  BALSun, Oct 11 13:00 ET | BAL +12.5 | 49 | CIN 3 at BAL 27BAL +12.5 closed · BAL covered |
 IND @  CLESun, Oct 11 16:25 ET | CLE +1 | 48.5 | IND 23 at CLE 32CLE +1 closed · CLE covered |
 JAX @  HOUSun, Oct 11 13:00 ET | HOU +6.5 | 55 | JAX 14 at HOU 30HOU +6.5 closed · HOU covered |
 LA @  WASSun, Oct 11 13:00 ET | WAS -7 | 45 | LA 30 at WAS 10WAS -7 closed · LA covered |
 LV @  KCSun, Oct 11 13:00 ET | KC +11 | 54.5 | LV 40 at KC 32KC +11 closed · LV covered |
 MIA @  SFSun, Oct 11 16:05 ET | SF +8.5 | 50.5 | MIA 43 at SF 17SF +8.5 closed · MIA covered |
 MIN @  SEASun, Oct 11 20:20 ET | SEA +6.5 | 54 | MIN 26 at SEA 27SEA +6.5 closed · MIN covered |
 NYG @  DALSun, Oct 11 16:25 ET | DAL +7.5 | 52 | NYG 34 at DAL 37DAL +7.5 closed · NYG covered |
 PHI @  PITSun, Oct 11 13:00 ET | PIT +7.5 | 44 | PHI 29 at PIT 38PIT +7.5 closed · PIT covered |
 LAC @  NOMon, Oct 12 20:15 ET | NO +7 | 49.5 | LAC 27 at NO 30NO +7 closed · LAC covered |
 BUF @  TENTue, Oct 13 19:00 ET | TEN -3 | 52 | BUF 16 at TEN 42TEN -3 closed · TEN covered |
The plays
A play is an angle with a prior record, staked by that record. The model's number alone is never a play.
The angle board mined, walk-forward record behind each
CAR @ ATL - model fades them by 3.0+, got blown out last week, worse record, in a dome 26-7 (79%)
- model fades them by 3.0+, got blown out last week, division game, in a dome 23-8 (74%)
- model fades them by 2.0+, got blown out last week, worse record, in a dome 34-14 (71%)
- and 16 more angles on this side
MIN @ SEA - model likes them by 0.5+, worse QB, elite QB, on turf 14-9 (61%)
NYG @ DAL - model fades them by 0.5+, big underdog (7+), lost last week, bad QB 16-7 (70%)
BUF @ TEN - model likes them by 3.0+, at home, more rest than the opponent, elite QB 17-11 (61%)
- model likes them by 1.0+, underdog, won last week, elite QB 95-62 (60%)
- model likes them by 3.0+, at home, more rest than the opponent, better QB 21-14 (60%)
CIN @ BAL TOTAL- under when high total (48+), division game 143-107 (57%)
- under when rain in the forecast, division game 120-94 (56%)
NYG @ DAL TOTAL- under when high total (48+), division game 143-107 (57%)
LAC @ NO TOTAL- over when early season, road team travelled 1,500+ miles 158-126 (56%)
- over when a team looking ahead to a division game, road team travelled 1,500+ miles 248-201 (55%)
MIA @ SF TOTAL- over when early season, road team travelled 1,500+ miles 158-126 (56%)
- over when a team looking ahead to a division game, road team travelled 1,500+ miles 248-201 (55%)
TB @ CHI TOTAL- over when a new starting QB, early season 91-64 (59%)
Read it straight. Five rules frozen 2026-08-28 before Week 1, git-timestamped, append-only. Flat 1u. Historical: the frozen card went 91-83, +6.8u over 2015-2025, 7 of 11 winning seasons; the weather family 362-334-11, +19.1u over 2010-2025. This season was replayed walk-forward: the angles were chosen on the seasons before it and fired on its games, so nothing here was scored on the games that found it. It is a replay, not a published record. 2026 is the first season we posted before kickoff.