Weekly Lines · 2020
Week 9.
14 games and 10 plays, replayed walk-forward on angles chosen from the seasons before 2020. Every number is open.
This week's plays: 4-6, -2.6u flat at -110. Season through week 9: 47-57, -20.6u flat at -110.
| Game | Market | Total | Final |
|---|---|---|---|
 GB @  SFThu, Nov 5 20:20 ET | SF -6 | 48.5 | GB 34 at SF 17SF -6 closed · GB covered |
 BAL @  INDSun, Nov 8 13:00 ET | IND +1 | 48 | BAL 24 at IND 10IND +1 closed · BAL covered |
 CAR @  KCSun, Nov 8 13:00 ET | KC +10 | 51.5 | CAR 31 at KC 33KC +10 closed · CAR covered |
 CHI @  TENSun, Nov 8 13:00 ET | TEN +6.5 | 46.5 | CHI 17 at TEN 24TEN +6.5 closed · TEN covered |
 DEN @  ATLSun, Nov 8 13:00 ET | ATL +4.5 | 50 | DEN 27 at ATL 34ATL +4.5 closed · ATL covered |
 DET @  MINSun, Nov 8 13:00 ET | MIN +3 | 51.5 | DET 20 at MIN 34MIN +3 closed · MIN covered |
 HOU @  JAXSun, Nov 8 13:00 ET | JAX -7 | 49 | HOU 27 at JAX 25JAX -7 closed · JAX covered |
 LV @  LACSun, Nov 8 16:05 ET | LAC -1 | 52.5 | LV 31 at LAC 26LAC -1 closed · LV covered |
 MIA @  ARISun, Nov 8 16:25 ET | ARI +6 | 49 | MIA 34 at ARI 31ARI +6 closed · MIA covered |
 NO @  TBSun, Nov 8 20:20 ET | TB +3 | 51 | NO 38 at TB 3TB +3 closed · NO covered |
 NYG @  WASSun, Nov 8 13:00 ET | WAS +3 | 43 | NYG 23 at WAS 20WAS +3 closed · NYG covered |
 PIT @  DALSun, Nov 8 16:25 ET | DAL -14 | 44 | PIT 24 at DAL 19DAL -14 closed · DAL covered |
 SEA @  BUFSun, Nov 8 13:00 ET | BUF -3 | 55 | SEA 34 at BUF 44BUF -3 closed · BUF covered |
 NE @  NYJMon, Nov 9 20:15 ET | NYJ -9.5 | 41.5 | NE 30 at NYJ 27NYJ -9.5 closed · NYJ covered |
The plays
A play is an angle with a prior record, staked by that record. The model's number alone is never a play.
The angle board mined, walk-forward record behind each
MIA @ ARI - model fades them by 2.0+, favorite, won last week, in a dome 114-76 (60%)
BAL @ IND - model fades them by 0.5+, underdog, elite QB, in a dome 22-14 (61%)
- model fades them by 1.0+, better QB, better coach, in a dome 97-63 (61%)
- model fades them by 0.5+, underdog, better QB, elite QB 46-30 (60%)
- and 1 more angle on this side
HOU @ JAC - model fades them by 3.0+, big favorite (7+), better coach, high total (48+) 30-20 (60%)
CAR @ KC TOTAL- under when windy, home team a big favorite 48-34 (58%)
- under when windy 205-160 (56%)
LV @ LAC TOTAL- under when high total (48+), division game 143-107 (57%)
HOU @ JAX TOTAL- under when high total (48+), home team a big underdog 42-18 (70%)
- under when high total (48+), division game 143-107 (57%)
- under when home team a big underdog, a new starting QB 68-53 (56%)
DET @ MIN TOTAL- under when high total (48+), division game 143-107 (57%)
NE @ NYJ TOTAL- under when home team a big underdog, a new starting QB 68-53 (56%)
PIT @ DAL TOTAL- under when home team a big underdog, a new starting QB 68-53 (56%)
SEA @ BUF TOTAL- over when a team looking ahead to a division game, road team travelled 1,500+ miles 248-201 (55%)
Read it straight. Five rules frozen 2026-08-28 before Week 1, git-timestamped, append-only. Flat 1u. Historical: the frozen card went 91-83, +6.8u over 2015-2025, 7 of 11 winning seasons; the weather family 362-334-11, +19.1u over 2010-2025. This season was replayed walk-forward: the angles were chosen on the seasons before it and fired on its games, so nothing here was scored on the games that found it. It is a replay, not a published record. 2026 is the first season we posted before kickoff.