Weekly Lines · 2020
Week 14.
16 games and 16 plays, replayed walk-forward on angles chosen from the seasons before 2020. Every number is open.
This week's plays: 7-9, -2.9u flat at -110. Season through week 14: 80-91, -28.4u flat at -110.
| Game | Market | Total | Final |
|---|---|---|---|
 NE @  LAThu, Dec 10 20:20 ET | LA +5 | 43.5 | NE 3 at LA 24LA +5 closed · LA covered |
 ARI @  NYGSun, Dec 13 13:00 ET | NYG -3 | 47 | ARI 26 at NYG 7NYG -3 closed · ARI covered |
 ATL @  LACSun, Dec 13 16:25 ET | LAC +1 | 49 | ATL 17 at LAC 20LAC +1 closed · LAC covered |
 DAL @  CINSun, Dec 13 13:00 ET | CIN -3 | 44 | DAL 30 at CIN 7CIN -3 closed · DAL covered |
 DEN @  CARSun, Dec 13 13:00 ET | CAR +4 | 46 | DEN 32 at CAR 27CAR +4 closed · DEN covered |
 GB @  DETSun, Dec 13 16:25 ET | DET -9.5 | 55.5 | GB 31 at DET 24DET -9.5 closed · DET covered |
 HOU @  CHISun, Dec 13 13:00 ET | CHI -1 | 46 | HOU 7 at CHI 36CHI -1 closed · CHI covered |
 IND @  LVSun, Dec 13 16:05 ET | LV -2.5 | 51.5 | IND 44 at LV 27LV -2.5 closed · IND covered |
 KC @  MIASun, Dec 13 13:00 ET | MIA -7.5 | 51.5 | KC 33 at MIA 27MIA -7.5 closed · MIA covered |
 MIN @  TBSun, Dec 13 13:00 ET | TB +7 | 52.5 | MIN 14 at TB 26TB +7 closed · TB covered |
 NO @  PHISun, Dec 13 16:25 ET | PHI -7.5 | 43 | NO 21 at PHI 24PHI -7.5 closed · PHI covered |
 NYJ @  SEASun, Dec 13 16:05 ET | SEA +16.5 | 49.5 | NYJ 3 at SEA 40SEA +16.5 closed · SEA covered |
 PIT @  BUFSun, Dec 13 20:20 ET | BUF +2 | 48.5 | PIT 15 at BUF 26BUF +2 closed · BUF covered |
 TEN @  JAXSun, Dec 13 13:00 ET | JAX -7.5 | 53 | TEN 31 at JAX 10JAX -7.5 closed · TEN covered |
 WAS @  SFSun, Dec 13 16:25 ET | SF +3 | 43.5 | WAS 23 at SF 15SF +3 closed · WAS covered |
 BAL @  CLEMon, Dec 14 20:15 ET | CLE -3 | 45.5 | BAL 47 at CLE 42CLE -3 closed · BAL covered |
The plays
A play is an angle with a prior record, staked by that record. The model's number alone is never a play.
The angle board mined, walk-forward record behind each
ATL @ LAC WIN ATL +1 1.0u
- model fades them by 1.0+, better QB, better coach, in a dome 97-63 (61%)
- model fades them by 0.5+, underdog, better record, better QB 20-13 (61%)
DAL @ CIN LOSS DAL -3 1.0u
- model fades them by 0.5+, favorite, got blown out last week, worse QB 56-35 (62%)
- model fades them by 1.0+, favorite, got blown out last week, worse QB 53-34 (61%)
- model fades them by 2.0+, favorite, got blown out last week, worse QB 45-29 (61%)
KC @ MIA WIN KC -7.5 1.0u
- model fades them by 3.0+, big favorite (7+), better coach, high total (48+) 30-20 (60%)
NE @ LAR WIN LAR -5 1.0u
- model likes them by 2.0+, favorite, worse QB, on turf 23-13 (64%)
- model likes them by 2.0+, better record, worse QB, in a dome 36-21 (63%)
- model likes them by 1.0+, better record, worse QB, in a dome 45-30 (60%)
WAS @ SF LOSS SF -3 1.0u
- model likes them by 2.0+, favorite, lost last week, in a dome 25-16 (61%)
ARI @ NYG TOTALWIN Under 47.0 1.0u
- under when windy 205-160 (56%)
PIT @ BUF TOTALLOSS Over 48.5 1.0u
- over when high total (48+), home team off Monday night 41-23 (64%)
- over when line inside 3, home team off Monday night 69-50 (58%)
- over when on turf, home team off Monday night 79-58 (58%)
- and 4 more angles on this side
WAS @ SF TOTALLOSS Over 43.5 1.0u
- over when home team off Monday night, road team travelled 1,500+ miles 39-19 (67%)
- over when line inside 3, home team off Monday night 69-50 (58%)
- over when in a dome, home team off Monday night 42-32 (57%)
- and 2 more angles on this side
HOU @ CHI TOTALLOSS Over 46.0 1.0u
- over when under 40 degrees, line inside 3 70-56 (56%)
GB @ DET TOTALWIN Under 55.5 1.0u
- under when high total (48+), home team a big underdog 42-18 (70%)
- under when high total (48+), division game 143-107 (57%)
TEN @ JAX TOTALWIN Under 53.0 1.0u
- under when high total (48+), home team a big underdog 42-18 (70%)
- under when high total (48+), division game 143-107 (57%)
- under when home team a big underdog, a new starting QB 68-53 (56%)
KC @ MIA TOTALLOSS Under 51.5 1.0u
- under when high total (48+), home team a big underdog 42-18 (70%)
- under when home team a big underdog, a new starting QB 68-53 (56%)
NO @ PHI TOTALLOSS Under 43.0 1.0u
- under when home team a big underdog, a new starting QB 68-53 (56%)
ATL @ LAC TOTALLOSS Over 49.0 1.0u
- over when a team looking ahead to a division game, road team travelled 1,500+ miles 248-201 (55%)
IND @ LV TOTALWIN Over 51.5 1.0u
- over when a team looking ahead to a division game, road team travelled 1,500+ miles 248-201 (55%)
NE @ LA TOTALLOSS Over 43.5 1.0u
- over when a team looking ahead to a division game, road team travelled 1,500+ miles 248-201 (55%)
Read it straight. Five rules frozen 2026-08-28 before Week 1, git-timestamped, append-only. Flat 1u. Historical: the frozen card went 91-83, +6.8u over 2015-2025, 7 of 11 winning seasons; the weather family 362-334-11, +19.1u over 2010-2025. This season was replayed walk-forward: the angles were chosen on the seasons before it and fired on its games, so nothing here was scored on the games that found it. It is a replay, not a published record. 2026 is the first season we posted before kickoff.