Weekly Lines · 2020
Week 10.
14 games and 15 plays, replayed walk-forward on angles chosen from the seasons before 2020. Every number is open.
This week's plays: 8-7, -1.9u flat at -110. Season through week 10: 55-64, -22.5u flat at -110.
| Game | Market | Total | Final |
|---|---|---|---|
 IND @  TENThu, Nov 12 20:20 ET | TEN -1 | 49 | IND 34 at TEN 17TEN -1 closed · IND covered |
 BAL @  NESun, Nov 15 20:20 ET | NE -7 | 44 | BAL 17 at NE 23NE -7 closed · NE covered |
 BUF @  ARISun, Nov 15 16:05 ET | ARI +3 | 55.5 | BUF 30 at ARI 32ARI +3 closed · BUF covered |
 CIN @  PITSun, Nov 15 16:25 ET | PIT +6.5 | 45.5 | CIN 10 at PIT 36PIT +6.5 closed · PIT covered |
 DEN @  LVSun, Nov 15 16:05 ET | LV +3.5 | 50.5 | DEN 12 at LV 37LV +3.5 closed · LV covered |
 HOU @  CLESun, Nov 15 13:00 ET | CLE +4.5 | 46 | HOU 7 at CLE 10CLE +4.5 closed · HOU covered |
 JAX @  GBSun, Nov 15 13:00 ET | GB +13.5 | 47 | JAX 20 at GB 24GB +13.5 closed · JAX covered |
 LAC @  MIASun, Nov 15 16:05 ET | MIA +1 | 48.5 | LAC 21 at MIA 29MIA +1 closed · MIA covered |
 PHI @  NYGSun, Nov 15 13:00 ET | NYG -4.5 | 45 | PHI 17 at NYG 27NYG -4.5 closed · NYG covered |
 SEA @  LASun, Nov 15 16:25 ET | LA +3 | 55 | SEA 16 at LA 23LA +3 closed · LA covered |
 SF @  NOSun, Nov 15 16:25 ET | NO +9.5 | 49.5 | SF 13 at NO 27NO +9.5 closed · NO covered |
 TB @  CARSun, Nov 15 13:00 ET | CAR -6 | 49.5 | TB 46 at CAR 23CAR -6 closed · TB covered |
 WAS @  DETSun, Nov 15 13:00 ET | DET +2.5 | 46 | WAS 27 at DET 30DET +2.5 closed · DET covered |
 MIN @  CHIMon, Nov 16 20:15 ET | CHI -3.5 | 44 | MIN 19 at CHI 13CHI -3.5 closed · MIN covered |
The plays
A play is an angle with a prior record, staked by that record. The model's number alone is never a play.
The angle board mined, walk-forward record behind each
DEN @ LV WIN DEN +3.5 1.0u
- model fades them by 3.0+, better coach, division game, in a dome 41-23 (64%)
- model fades them by 1.0+, worse record, better coach, in a dome 62-36 (63%)
- model fades them by 0.5+, worse record, better coach, in a dome 71-42 (63%)
- and 7 more angles on this side
SF @ NO LOSS NO -9.5 3.0u
- model fades them by 2.0+, big favorite (7+), blew someone out last week, in a dome 20-8 (71%)
- model fades them by 2.0+, less rest than the opponent, blew someone out last week, in a dome 14-6 (70%)
- model fades them by 2.0+, favorite, blew someone out last week, in a dome 48-23 (68%)
- and 46 more angles on this side
PHI @ NYG WIN NYG +4.5 1.0u
- model likes them by 2.0+, at home, bad QB, on turf 20-12 (62%)
- model likes them by 3.0+, won last week, bad QB, on turf 20-13 (61%)
- model likes them by 2.0+, won last week, bad QB, on turf 30-20 (60%)
- and 1 more angle on this side
TB @ CAR LOSS TB -6 1.0u
- model fades them by 3.0+, favorite, got blown out last week, worse QB 40-23 (64%)
- model fades them by 0.5+, favorite, got blown out last week, worse QB 56-35 (62%)
- model fades them by 1.0+, favorite, got blown out last week, worse QB 53-34 (61%)
- and 1 more angle on this side
CIN @ PIT TOTALLOSS Under 45.5 1.0u
- under when windy 205-160 (56%)
- under when rain in the forecast, division game 120-94 (56%)
TB @ CAR TOTALLOSS Under 49.5 1.0u
- under when high total (48+), division game 143-107 (57%)
- under when windy 205-160 (56%)
HOU @ CLE TOTALWIN Under 46.0 1.0u
- under when windy 205-160 (56%)
JAX @ GB TOTALWIN Under 47.0 1.0u
- under when windy, home team a big favorite 48-34 (58%)
- under when windy 205-160 (56%)
- under when rain in the forecast, a new starting QB 89-70 (56%)
PHI @ NYG TOTALWIN Under 45.0 1.0u
- under when windy 205-160 (56%)
BAL @ NE TOTALLOSS Over 44.0 1.0u
- over when home team off Monday night 169-134 (56%)
SEA @ LA TOTALWIN Under 55.0 1.0u
- under when high total (48+), division game 143-107 (57%)
DEN @ LV TOTALWIN Under 50.5 1.0u
- under when high total (48+), division game 143-107 (57%)
IND @ TEN TOTALLOSS Under 49.0 1.0u
- under when high total (48+), division game 143-107 (57%)
SF @ NO TOTALLOSS Over 49.5 1.0u
- over when a team looking ahead to a division game, road team travelled 1,500+ miles 248-201 (55%)
BUF @ ARI TOTALWIN Over 55.5 1.0u
- over when a team looking ahead to a division game, road team travelled 1,500+ miles 248-201 (55%)
Read it straight. Five rules frozen 2026-08-28 before Week 1, git-timestamped, append-only. Flat 1u. Historical: the frozen card went 91-83, +6.8u over 2015-2025, 7 of 11 winning seasons; the weather family 362-334-11, +19.1u over 2010-2025. This season was replayed walk-forward: the angles were chosen on the seasons before it and fired on its games, so nothing here was scored on the games that found it. It is a replay, not a published record. 2026 is the first season we posted before kickoff.