Weekly Lines · 2020
Week 3.
16 games and 13 plays, replayed walk-forward on angles chosen from the seasons before 2020. Every number is open.
This week's plays: 8-5, +3.5u flat at -110. Season through week 3: 19-16, +0.2u flat at -110.
| Game | Market | Total | Final |
|---|---|---|---|
 MIA @  JAXThu, Sep 24 20:20 ET | JAX +3 | 49 | MIA 31 at JAX 13JAX +3 closed · MIA covered |
 CAR @  LACSun, Sep 27 16:05 ET | LAC +6 | 43.5 | CAR 21 at LAC 16LAC +6 closed · CAR covered |
 CHI @  ATLSun, Sep 27 13:00 ET | ATL +2.5 | 46 | CHI 30 at ATL 26ATL +2.5 closed · CHI covered |
 CIN @  PHISun, Sep 27 13:00 ET | PHI +5.5 | 46.5 | CIN 23 at PHI 23PHI +5.5 closed · CIN covered |
 DAL @  SEASun, Sep 27 16:25 ET | SEA +5.5 | 58 | DAL 31 at SEA 38SEA +5.5 closed · SEA covered |
 DET @  ARISun, Sep 27 16:25 ET | ARI +4.5 | 55.5 | DET 26 at ARI 23ARI +4.5 closed · DET covered |
 GB @  NOSun, Sep 27 20:20 ET | NO +3.5 | 52 | GB 37 at NO 30NO +3.5 closed · GB covered |
 HOU @  PITSun, Sep 27 13:00 ET | PIT +4 | 46.5 | HOU 21 at PIT 28PIT +4 closed · PIT covered |
 LA @  BUFSun, Sep 27 13:00 ET | BUF +1.5 | 46.5 | LA 32 at BUF 35BUF +1.5 closed · BUF covered |
 LV @  NESun, Sep 27 13:00 ET | NE +7 | 47 | LV 20 at NE 36NE +7 closed · NE covered |
 NYJ @  INDSun, Sep 27 16:05 ET | IND +12.5 | 44 | NYJ 7 at IND 36IND +12.5 closed · IND covered |
 SF @  NYGSun, Sep 27 13:00 ET | NYG -3 | 44 | SF 36 at NYG 9NYG -3 closed · SF covered |
 TB @  DENSun, Sep 27 16:25 ET | DEN -6 | 42.5 | TB 28 at DEN 10DEN -6 closed · TB covered |
 TEN @  MINSun, Sep 27 13:00 ET | MIN -3 | 49.5 | TEN 31 at MIN 30MIN -3 closed · MIN covered |
 WAS @  CLESun, Sep 27 13:00 ET | CLE +7.5 | 45 | WAS 20 at CLE 34CLE +7.5 closed · CLE covered |
 KC @  BALMon, Sep 28 20:15 ET | BAL +3.5 | 55 | KC 34 at BAL 20BAL +3.5 closed · KC covered |
The plays
A play is an angle with a prior record, staked by that record. The model's number alone is never a play.
The angle board mined, walk-forward record behind each
WAS @ CLE WIN CLE -7.5 1.0u
- model likes them by 0.5+, big favorite (7+), more rest than the opponent, better QB 19-11 (63%)
- model likes them by 0.5+, big favorite (7+), more rest than the opponent, won last week 16-10 (62%)
- model likes them by 1.0+, more rest than the opponent, won last week, bad QB 15-10 (60%)
DET @ ARI WIN DET +4.5 1.0u
- model likes them by 1.0+, underdog, got blown out last week, elite QB 37-23 (62%)
- model likes them by 1.0+, on the road, worse record, elite QB 68-44 (61%)
GB @ NO WIN GB +3.5 1.0u
- model likes them by 2.0+, better record, worse QB, in a dome 36-21 (63%)
- model likes them by 2.0+, more rest than the opponent, blew someone out last week, better record 22-13 (63%)
- model likes them by 2.0+, blew someone out last week, worse QB, on turf 35-22 (61%)
- and 2 more angles on this side
NYJ @ IND LOSS IND -12.5 1.0u
- model fades them by 1.0+, big favorite (7+), blew someone out last week, in a dome 21-12 (64%)
- model fades them by 0.5+, favorite, blew someone out last week, in a dome 62-38 (62%)
- model fades them by 1.0+, favorite, blew someone out last week, in a dome 55-34 (62%)
- and 2 more angles on this side
TEN @ MIN WIN MIN +3 2.0u
- model likes them by 1.0+, worse QB, elite QB, on turf 13-7 (65%)
- model likes them by 1.0+, underdog, got blown out last week, elite QB 37-23 (62%)
- model likes them by 0.5+, worse QB, elite QB, on turf 14-9 (61%)
- and 2 more angles on this side
SF @ NYG LOSS NYG +3 1.0u
- model likes them by 2.0+, at home, bad QB, on turf 20-12 (62%)
GB @ NO TOTALWIN Over 52.0 1.0u
- over when high total (48+), home team off Monday night 41-23 (64%)
- over when on turf, home team off Monday night 79-58 (58%)
- over when early season, home team off Monday night 57-42 (58%)
- and 2 more angles on this side
DET @ ARI TOTALLOSS Over 55.5 1.0u
- over when early season, road team travelled 1,500+ miles 158-126 (56%)
TB @ DEN TOTALLOSS Over 42.5 1.0u
- over when early season, road team travelled 1,500+ miles 158-126 (56%)
DAL @ SEA TOTALWIN Over 58.0 1.0u
- over when early season, road team travelled 1,500+ miles 158-126 (56%)
CAR @ LAC TOTALLOSS Over 43.5 1.0u
- over when early season, road team travelled 1,500+ miles 158-126 (56%)
LV @ NE TOTALWIN Over 47.0 1.0u
- over when early season, road team travelled 1,500+ miles 158-126 (56%)
SF @ NYG TOTALWIN Over 44.0 1.0u
- over when early season, road team travelled 1,500+ miles 158-126 (56%)
Read it straight. Five rules frozen 2026-08-28 before Week 1, git-timestamped, append-only. Flat 1u. Historical: the frozen card went 91-83, +6.8u over 2015-2025, 7 of 11 winning seasons; the weather family 362-334-11, +19.1u over 2010-2025. This season was replayed walk-forward: the angles were chosen on the seasons before it and fired on its games, so nothing here was scored on the games that found it. It is a replay, not a published record. 2026 is the first season we posted before kickoff.