Weekly Lines · 2020
Week 4.
15 games and 13 plays, replayed walk-forward on angles chosen from the seasons before 2020. Every number is open.
This week's plays: 4-9, -3.9u flat at -110. Season through week 4: 23-25, -3.7u flat at -110.
| Game | Market | Total | Final |
|---|---|---|---|
 DEN @  NYJThu, Oct 1 20:20 ET | NYJ +1 | 41 | DEN 37 at NYJ 28NYJ +1 closed · DEN covered |
 ARI @  CARSun, Oct 4 13:00 ET | CAR -3 | 52.5 | ARI 21 at CAR 31CAR -3 closed · CAR covered |
 BAL @  WASSun, Oct 4 13:00 ET | WAS -14.5 | 45 | BAL 31 at WAS 17WAS -14.5 closed · WAS covered |
 BUF @  LVSun, Oct 4 16:25 ET | LV -3 | 53 | BUF 30 at LV 23LV -3 closed · BUF covered |
 CLE @  DALSun, Oct 4 13:00 ET | DAL +3.5 | 56.5 | CLE 49 at DAL 38DAL +3.5 closed · CLE covered |
 IND @  CHISun, Oct 4 16:25 ET | CHI -3.5 | 43.5 | IND 19 at CHI 11CHI -3.5 closed · IND covered |
 JAX @  CINSun, Oct 4 13:00 ET | CIN +1 | 50 | JAX 25 at CIN 33CIN +1 closed · CIN covered |
 LAC @  TBSun, Oct 4 13:00 ET | TB +7.5 | 42.5 | LAC 31 at TB 38TB +7.5 closed · LAC covered |
 MIN @  HOUSun, Oct 4 13:00 ET | HOU +3.5 | 52.5 | MIN 31 at HOU 23HOU +3.5 closed · MIN covered |
 NO @  DETSun, Oct 4 13:00 ET | DET -3 | 51.5 | NO 35 at DET 29DET -3 closed · NO covered |
 NYG @  LASun, Oct 4 16:05 ET | LA +13.5 | 49.5 | NYG 9 at LA 17LA +13.5 closed · NYG covered |
 PHI @  SFSun, Oct 4 20:20 ET | SF +8.5 | 45.5 | PHI 25 at SF 20SF +8.5 closed · PHI covered |
 SEA @  MIASun, Oct 4 13:00 ET | MIA -4.5 | 55 | SEA 31 at MIA 23MIA -4.5 closed · SEA covered |
 ATL @  GBMon, Oct 5 21:00 ET | GB +5 | 56.5 | ATL 16 at GB 30GB +5 closed · GB covered |
 NE @  KCMon, Oct 5 19:05 ET | KC +7 | 52.5 | NE 10 at KC 26KC +7 closed · KC covered |
The plays
A play is an angle with a prior record, staked by that record. The model's number alone is never a play.
The angle board mined, walk-forward record behind each
CLE @ DAL LOSS CLE +3.5 1.0u
- model fades them by 0.5+, underdog, blew someone out last week, better record 17-10 (63%)
- model fades them by 0.5+, blew someone out last week, worse QB, in a dome 34-21 (62%)
DEN @ NYJ LOSS DEN +1 1.0u
- model fades them by 3.0+, underdog, better coach, low total (41 or under) 15-9 (62%)
- model fades them by 3.0+, lost last week, better coach, low total (41 or under) 64-39 (62%)
- model fades them by 3.0+, got blown out last week, better coach, low total (41 or under) 21-13 (62%)
- and 6 more angles on this side
MIN @ HOU WIN HOU -3.5 1.0u
- model fades them by 3.0+, at home, lost last week, in a dome 53-30 (64%)
- model fades them by 3.0+, at home, lost last week, worse QB 91-59 (61%)
IND @ CHI LOSS IND -3.5 1.0u
- model fades them by 2.0+, on the road, blew someone out last week, better coach 73-45 (62%)
- model fades them by 1.0+, on the road, blew someone out last week, better coach 89-58 (60%)
- model fades them by 0.5+, on the road, blew someone out last week, better coach 100-66 (60%)
JAC @ CIN LOSS JAC +1 1.0u
- model likes them by 3.0+, on the road, got blown out last week, better coach 27-16 (63%)
- model likes them by 0.5+, on the road, more rest than the opponent, bad QB 18-12 (60%)
NE @ KC WIN KC -7 3.0u
- model likes them by 0.5+, less rest than the opponent, blew someone out last week, elite QB 21-9 (70%)
- model likes them by 1.0+, less rest than the opponent, blew someone out last week, elite QB 19-9 (68%)
- model likes them by 0.5+, big favorite (7+), less rest than the opponent, elite QB 14-7 (67%)
- and 11 more angles on this side
NE @ KC TOTALLOSS Over 52.5 1.0u
- over when high total (48+), home team off Monday night 41-23 (64%)
- over when a new starting QB, early season 91-64 (59%)
- over when on turf, home team off Monday night 79-58 (58%)
- and 3 more angles on this side
DEN @ NYJ TOTALWIN Over 41.0 1.0u
- over when a new starting QB, early season 91-64 (59%)
- over when on turf, low total (41 or under) 193-153 (56%)
- over when early season, road team travelled 1,500+ miles 158-126 (56%)
- and 1 more angle on this side
NYG @ LA TOTALLOSS Over 49.5 1.0u
- over when early season, road team travelled 1,500+ miles 158-126 (56%)
- over when a team looking ahead to a division game, road team travelled 1,500+ miles 248-201 (55%)
ARI @ CAR TOTALLOSS Over 52.5 1.0u
- over when early season, road team travelled 1,500+ miles 158-126 (56%)
- over when a team looking ahead to a division game, road team travelled 1,500+ miles 248-201 (55%)
PHI @ SF TOTALLOSS Over 45.5 1.0u
- over when a new starting QB, early season 91-64 (59%)
- over when early season, road team travelled 1,500+ miles 158-126 (56%)
SEA @ MIA TOTALLOSS Over 55.0 1.0u
- over when early season, road team travelled 1,500+ miles 158-126 (56%)
LAC @ TB TOTALWIN Over 42.5 1.0u
- over when early season, road team travelled 1,500+ miles 158-126 (56%)
Read it straight. Five rules frozen 2026-08-28 before Week 1, git-timestamped, append-only. Flat 1u. Historical: the frozen card went 91-83, +6.8u over 2015-2025, 7 of 11 winning seasons; the weather family 362-334-11, +19.1u over 2010-2025. This season was replayed walk-forward: the angles were chosen on the seasons before it and fired on its games, so nothing here was scored on the games that found it. It is a replay, not a published record. 2026 is the first season we posted before kickoff.