Weekly Lines · 2020
Week 8.
14 games and 12 plays, replayed walk-forward on angles chosen from the seasons before 2020. Every number is open.
This week's plays: 5-7, -6.0u flat at -110. Season through week 8: 43-51, -18.0u flat at -110.
| Game | Market | Total | Final |
|---|---|---|---|
 ATL @  CARThu, Oct 29 20:20 ET | CAR +1.5 | 52 | ATL 25 at CAR 17CAR +1.5 closed · ATL covered |
 DAL @  PHISun, Nov 1 20:20 ET | PHI +10 | 43 | DAL 9 at PHI 23PHI +10 closed · PHI covered |
 IND @  DETSun, Nov 1 13:00 ET | DET -3.5 | 49 | IND 41 at DET 21DET -3.5 closed · IND covered |
 LAC @  DENSun, Nov 1 16:05 ET | DEN -3 | 44.5 | LAC 30 at DEN 31DEN -3 closed · DEN covered |
 LA @  MIASun, Nov 1 13:00 ET | MIA -3.5 | 46.5 | LA 17 at MIA 28MIA -3.5 closed · MIA covered |
 LV @  CLESun, Nov 1 13:00 ET | CLE +1 | 48 | LV 16 at CLE 6CLE +1 closed · LV covered |
 MIN @  GBSun, Nov 1 13:00 ET | GB +5.5 | 47 | MIN 28 at GB 22GB +5.5 closed · MIN covered |
 NE @  BUFSun, Nov 1 13:00 ET | BUF +4 | 41 | NE 21 at BUF 24BUF +4 closed · NE covered |
 NO @  CHISun, Nov 1 16:25 ET | CHI -5.5 | 41 | NO 26 at CHI 23CHI -5.5 closed · CHI covered |
 NYJ @  KCSun, Nov 1 13:00 ET | KC +20 | 49 | NYJ 9 at KC 35KC +20 closed · KC covered |
 PIT @  BALSun, Nov 1 13:00 ET | BAL +4 | 44 | PIT 28 at BAL 24BAL +4 closed · PIT covered |
 SF @  SEASun, Nov 1 16:25 ET | SEA +1 | 54.5 | SF 27 at SEA 37SEA +1 closed · SEA covered |
 TEN @  CINSun, Nov 1 13:00 ET | CIN -7.5 | 49.5 | TEN 20 at CIN 31CIN -7.5 closed · CIN covered |
 TB @  NYGMon, Nov 2 20:15 ET | NYG -13 | 47 | TB 25 at NYG 23NYG -13 closed · NYG covered |
The plays
A play is an angle with a prior record, staked by that record. The model's number alone is never a play.
The angle board mined, walk-forward record behind each
MIN @ GB - model likes them by 0.5+, less rest than the opponent, blew someone out last week, division game 26-14 (65%)
IND @ DET - model likes them by 0.5+, favorite, on the road, more rest than the opponent 37-23 (62%)
- model likes them by 1.0+, better record, worse QB, in a dome 45-30 (60%)
NYJ @ KC - model fades them by 3.0+, better QB, on turf, high total (48+) 34-14 (71%)
- model fades them by 3.0+, big favorite (7+), on turf, high total (48+) 26-13 (67%)
- model fades them by 2.0+, better QB, on turf, high total (48+) 51-30 (63%)
- and 6 more angles on this side
NO @ CHI - model fades them by 0.5+, worse record, elite QB, low total (41 or under) 22-13 (63%)
- model fades them by 1.0+, worse record, elite QB, low total (41 or under) 20-12 (62%)
- model fades them by 3.0+, better coach, low total (41 or under) 125-78 (62%)
- and 10 more angles on this side
PIT @ BAL - model fades them by 0.5+, underdog, less rest than the opponent, division game 39-22 (64%)
- model fades them by 0.5+, underdog, less rest than the opponent, better record 18-12 (60%)
SF @ SEA - model likes them by 1.0+, lost last week, elite QB, on turf 71-47 (60%)
DAL @ PHI TOTAL- under when windy, home team a big favorite 48-34 (58%)
- under when windy 205-160 (56%)
- under when rain in the forecast, division game 120-94 (56%)
- and 1 more angle on this side
TEN @ CIN TOTAL- under when high total (48+), home team a big underdog 42-18 (70%)
- under when windy, home team a big underdog 20-9 (69%)
- under when windy 205-160 (56%)
MIN @ GB TOTAL- under when windy 205-160 (56%)
PIT @ BAL TOTAL- under when rain in the forecast, division game 120-94 (56%)
ATL @ CAR TOTAL- under when high total (48+), division game 143-107 (57%)
- under when rain in the forecast, division game 120-94 (56%)
SF @ SEA TOTAL- under when high total (48+), division game 143-107 (57%)
Read it straight. Five rules frozen 2026-08-28 before Week 1, git-timestamped, append-only. Flat 1u. Historical: the frozen card went 91-83, +6.8u over 2015-2025, 7 of 11 winning seasons; the weather family 362-334-11, +19.1u over 2010-2025. This season was replayed walk-forward: the angles were chosen on the seasons before it and fired on its games, so nothing here was scored on the games that found it. It is a replay, not a published record. 2026 is the first season we posted before kickoff.