Weekly Lines · 2020
Week 12.
16 games and 14 plays, replayed walk-forward on angles chosen from the seasons before 2020. Every number is open.
This week's plays: 4-10, -9.2u flat at -110. Season through week 12: 70-78, -24.1u flat at -110.
| Game | Market | Total | Final |
|---|---|---|---|
 HOU @  DETThu, Nov 26 12:30 ET | DET -3 | 52.5 | HOU 41 at DET 25DET -3 closed · HOU covered |
 WAS @  DALThu, Nov 26 16:30 ET | DAL +2.5 | 46 | WAS 41 at DAL 16DAL +2.5 closed · WAS covered |
 ARI @  NESun, Nov 29 13:00 ET | NE -1 | 51 | ARI 17 at NE 20NE -1 closed · NE covered |
 CAR @  MINSun, Nov 29 13:00 ET | MIN +3 | 50 | CAR 27 at MIN 28MIN +3 closed · CAR covered |
 CHI @  GBSun, Nov 29 20:20 ET | GB +7.5 | 44 | CHI 25 at GB 41GB +7.5 closed · GB covered |
 CLE @  JAXSun, Nov 29 13:00 ET | JAX -7.5 | 48.5 | CLE 27 at JAX 25JAX -7.5 closed · JAX covered |
 KC @  TBSun, Nov 29 16:25 ET | TB -3.5 | 56 | KC 27 at TB 24TB -3.5 closed · TB covered |
 LAC @  BUFSun, Nov 29 13:00 ET | BUF +4.5 | 51 | LAC 17 at BUF 27BUF +4.5 closed · BUF covered |
 LV @  ATLSun, Nov 29 13:00 ET | ATL -3.5 | 53 | LV 6 at ATL 43ATL -3.5 closed · ATL covered |
 MIA @  NYJSun, Nov 29 13:00 ET | NYJ -7.5 | 46 | MIA 20 at NYJ 3NYJ -7.5 closed · MIA covered |
 NO @  DENSun, Nov 29 16:05 ET | DEN -17 | 36.5 | NO 31 at DEN 3DEN -17 closed · NO covered |
 NYG @  CINSun, Nov 29 13:00 ET | CIN -6.5 | 45 | NYG 19 at CIN 17CIN -6.5 closed · CIN covered |
 SF @  LASun, Nov 29 16:05 ET | LA +5 | 44.5 | SF 23 at LA 20LA +5 closed · SF covered |
 TEN @  INDSun, Nov 29 13:00 ET | IND +3 | 51.5 | TEN 45 at IND 26IND +3 closed · TEN covered |
 SEA @  PHIMon, Nov 30 20:15 ET | PHI -6.5 | 50 | SEA 23 at PHI 17PHI -6.5 closed · PHI covered |
 BAL @  PITWed, Dec 2 15:40 ET | PIT +10.5 | 41.5 | BAL 14 at PIT 19PIT +10.5 closed · BAL covered |
The plays
A play is an angle with a prior record, staked by that record. The model's number alone is never a play.
The angle board mined, walk-forward record behind each
ARI @ NE LOSS NE +1 1.0u
- model fades them by 0.5+, underdog, less rest than the opponent, better coach 35-20 (64%)
- model fades them by 1.0+, underdog, less rest than the opponent, better coach 28-17 (62%)
NO @ DEN LOSS NO -17 1.0u
- model fades them by 1.0+, on the road, blew someone out last week, low total (41 or under) 36-21 (63%)
- model fades them by 3.0+, on the road, blew someone out last week, low total (41 or under) 20-12 (62%)
- model fades them by 2.0+, on the road, blew someone out last week, better coach 73-45 (62%)
- and 11 more angles on this side
SEA @ PHI LOSS PHI +6.5 1.0u
- model fades them by 2.0+, underdog, at home, less rest than the opponent 22-13 (63%)
BAL @ PIT WIN PIT -10.5 1.0u
- model fades them by 3.0+, favorite, at home, division game 142-94 (60%)
SF @ LAR LOSS SF +5 3.0u
- model fades them by 2.0+, got blown out last week, worse record, in a dome 34-14 (71%)
- model fades them by 2.0+, got blown out last week, division game, in a dome 31-14 (69%)
- model fades them by 1.0+, got blown out last week, worse record, in a dome 40-19 (68%)
- and 24 more angles on this side
WAS @ DAL WIN WAS +2.5 1.0u
- model likes them by 1.0+, on the road, better QB, division game 136-89 (60%)
SEA @ PHI TOTALWIN Under 50.0 1.0u
- under when windy 205-160 (56%)
KC @ TB TOTALLOSS Over 56.0 1.0u
- over when high total (48+), home team off Monday night 41-23 (64%)
- over when a team looking ahead to a division game, home team off Monday night 97-73 (57%)
- over when home team off Monday night 169-134 (56%)
SF @ LA TOTALLOSS Over 44.5 1.0u
- over when on turf, home team off Monday night 79-58 (58%)
- over when a team looking ahead to a division game, home team off Monday night 97-73 (57%)
- over when in a dome, home team off Monday night 42-32 (57%)
- and 1 more angle on this side
TEN @ IND TOTALLOSS Under 51.5 1.0u
- under when high total (48+), division game 143-107 (57%)
CLE @ JAX TOTALLOSS Under 48.5 1.0u
- under when high total (48+), home team a big underdog 42-18 (70%)
- under when home team a big underdog, a new starting QB 68-53 (56%)
NO @ DEN TOTALWIN Under 36.5 1.0u
- under when home team a big underdog, a new starting QB 68-53 (56%)
LV @ ATL TOTALLOSS Over 53.0 1.0u
- over when a team looking ahead to a division game, road team travelled 1,500+ miles 248-201 (55%)
ARI @ NE TOTALLOSS Over 51.0 1.0u
- over when a team looking ahead to a division game, road team travelled 1,500+ miles 248-201 (55%)
Read it straight. Five rules frozen 2026-08-28 before Week 1, git-timestamped, append-only. Flat 1u. Historical: the frozen card went 91-83, +6.8u over 2015-2025, 7 of 11 winning seasons; the weather family 362-334-11, +19.1u over 2010-2025. This season was replayed walk-forward: the angles were chosen on the seasons before it and fired on its games, so nothing here was scored on the games that found it. It is a replay, not a published record. 2026 is the first season we posted before kickoff.