Weekly Lines · 2020
Week 6.
14 games and 15 plays, replayed walk-forward on angles chosen from the seasons before 2020. Every number is open.
This week's plays: 5-10, -8.2u flat at -110. Season through week 6: 34-38, -8.3u flat at -110.
| Game | Market | Total | Final |
|---|---|---|---|
 ATL @  MINSun, Oct 18 13:00 ET | MIN +3.5 | 53 | ATL 40 at MIN 23MIN +3.5 closed · ATL covered |
 BAL @  PHISun, Oct 18 13:00 ET | PHI -10.5 | 46.5 | BAL 30 at PHI 28PHI -10.5 closed · PHI covered |
 CHI @  CARSun, Oct 18 13:00 ET | CAR +2 | 45 | CHI 23 at CAR 16CAR +2 closed · CHI covered |
 CIN @  INDSun, Oct 18 13:00 ET | IND +7.5 | 46 | CIN 27 at IND 31IND +7.5 closed · CIN covered |
 CLE @  PITSun, Oct 18 13:00 ET | PIT +3 | 50 | CLE 7 at PIT 38PIT +3 closed · PIT covered |
 DEN @  NESun, Oct 18 13:00 ET | NE +7 | 43.5 | DEN 18 at NE 12NE +7 closed · DEN covered |
 DET @  JAXSun, Oct 18 13:00 ET | JAX -3 | 52.5 | DET 34 at JAX 16JAX -3 closed · DET covered |
 GB @  TBSun, Oct 18 16:25 ET | TB -3 | 55 | GB 10 at TB 38TB -3 closed · TB covered |
 HOU @  TENSun, Oct 18 13:00 ET | TEN +4 | 52 | HOU 36 at TEN 42TEN +4 closed · TEN covered |
 LA @  SFSun, Oct 18 20:20 ET | SF -2 | 51 | LA 16 at SF 24SF -2 closed · SF covered |
 NYJ @  MIASun, Oct 18 16:05 ET | MIA +9.5 | 46 | NYJ 0 at MIA 24MIA +9.5 closed · MIA covered |
 WAS @  NYGSun, Oct 18 13:00 ET | NYG +2 | 42.5 | WAS 19 at NYG 20NYG +2 closed · WAS covered |
 ARI @  DALMon, Oct 19 20:15 ET | DAL +1 | 55.5 | ARI 38 at DAL 10DAL +1 closed · ARI covered |
 KC @  BUFMon, Oct 19 17:00 ET | BUF -5.5 | 55 | KC 26 at BUF 17BUF -5.5 closed · KC covered |
The plays
A play is an angle with a prior record, staked by that record. The model's number alone is never a play.
The angle board mined, walk-forward record behind each
BAL @ PHI WIN BAL -10.5 1.0u
- model fades them by 2.0+, on the road, blew someone out last week, better coach 73-45 (62%)
- model fades them by 1.0+, on the road, blew someone out last week, better coach 89-58 (60%)
- model fades them by 0.5+, on the road, blew someone out last week, better coach 100-66 (60%)
CHI @ CAR LOSS CAR -2 1.0u
- model likes them by 3.0+, favorite, worse record, better QB 13-8 (62%)
KC @ BUF LOSS KC -5.5 3.0u
- model fades them by 3.0+, better QB, on turf, high total (48+) 34-14 (71%)
- model fades them by 2.0+, better QB, on turf, high total (48+) 51-30 (63%)
- model fades them by 3.0+, better QB, better coach, on turf 92-56 (62%)
- and 1 more angle on this side
ATL @ MIN LOSS MIN -3.5 1.0u
- model likes them by 2.0+, favorite, lost last week, in a dome 25-16 (61%)
- model likes them by 1.0+, lost last week, elite QB, on turf 71-47 (60%)
NYJ @ MIA LOSS NYJ +9.5 1.0u
- model likes them by 3.0+, on the road, got blown out last week, better coach 27-16 (63%)
- model likes them by 0.5+, on the road, got blown out last week, division game 62-39 (61%)
LAR @ SF WIN SF +2 1.0u
- model likes them by 0.5+, got blown out last week, elite QB, division game 17-10 (63%)
- model likes them by 1.0+, underdog, got blown out last week, elite QB 37-23 (62%)
- model likes them by 1.0+, got blown out last week, elite QB, division game 16-10 (62%)
WAS @ NYG WIN WAS +2 1.0u
- model likes them by 0.5+, on the road, got blown out last week, division game 62-39 (61%)
- model likes them by 1.0+, on the road, better QB, division game 136-89 (60%)
DEN @ NE TOTALLOSS Over 43.5 1.0u
- over when home team off Monday night, road team travelled 1,500+ miles 39-19 (67%)
- over when early season, home team off Monday night 57-42 (58%)
- over when a team looking ahead to a division game, home team off Monday night 97-73 (57%)
- and 3 more angles on this side
LA @ SF TOTALWIN Under 51.0 1.0u
- under when high total (48+), division game 143-107 (57%)
CLE @ PIT TOTALWIN Under 50.0 1.0u
- under when high total (48+), division game 143-107 (57%)
HOU @ TEN TOTALLOSS Under 52.0 1.0u
- under when high total (48+), division game 143-107 (57%)
ARI @ DAL TOTALLOSS Over 55.5 1.0u
- over when a new starting QB, early season 91-64 (59%)
CHI @ CAR TOTALLOSS Over 45.0 1.0u
- over when a new starting QB, early season 91-64 (59%)
DET @ JAX TOTALLOSS Over 52.5 1.0u
- over when a new starting QB, early season 91-64 (59%)
WAS @ NYG TOTALLOSS Over 42.5 1.0u
- over when a new starting QB, early season 91-64 (59%)
Read it straight. Five rules frozen 2026-08-28 before Week 1, git-timestamped, append-only. Flat 1u. Historical: the frozen card went 91-83, +6.8u over 2015-2025, 7 of 11 winning seasons; the weather family 362-334-11, +19.1u over 2010-2025. This season was replayed walk-forward: the angles were chosen on the seasons before it and fired on its games, so nothing here was scored on the games that found it. It is a replay, not a published record. 2026 is the first season we posted before kickoff.