Weekly Lines · 2020
Week 16.
16 games and 11 plays, replayed walk-forward on angles chosen from the seasons before 2020. Every number is open.
This week's plays: 8-3, +5.7u flat at -110. Season through week 16: 94-102, -24.6u flat at -110.
| Game | Market | Total | Final |
|---|---|---|---|
 MIN @  NOFri, Dec 25 16:30 ET | NO +6.5 | 49 | MIN 33 at NO 52NO +6.5 closed · NO covered |
 MIA @  LVSat, Dec 26 20:15 ET | LV -2 | 50 | MIA 26 at LV 25LV -2 closed · LV covered |
 SF @  ARISat, Dec 26 16:30 ET | ARI +6 | 49 | SF 20 at ARI 12ARI +6 closed · SF covered |
 TB @  DETSat, Dec 26 13:00 ET | DET -12 | 55 | TB 47 at DET 7DET -12 closed · TB covered |
 ATL @  KCSun, Dec 27 13:00 ET | KC +11 | 54 | ATL 14 at KC 17KC +11 closed · ATL covered |
 CAR @  WASSun, Dec 27 16:05 ET | WAS -1 | 41 | CAR 20 at WAS 13WAS -1 closed · CAR covered |
 CHI @  JAXSun, Dec 27 13:00 ET | JAX -9.5 | 47 | CHI 41 at JAX 17JAX -9.5 closed · CHI covered |
 CIN @  HOUSun, Dec 27 13:00 ET | HOU +7.5 | 46 | CIN 37 at HOU 31HOU +7.5 closed · CIN covered |
 CLE @  NYJSun, Dec 27 13:00 ET | NYJ -6.5 | 45 | CLE 16 at NYJ 23NYJ -6.5 closed · NYJ covered |
 DEN @  LACSun, Dec 27 16:05 ET | LAC +2.5 | 47.5 | DEN 16 at LAC 19LAC +2.5 closed · LAC covered |
 IND @  PITSun, Dec 27 13:00 ET | PIT -1 | 43 | IND 24 at PIT 28PIT -1 closed · PIT covered |
 LA @  SEASun, Dec 27 16:25 ET | SEA +1.5 | 48 | LA 9 at SEA 20SEA +1.5 closed · SEA covered |
 NYG @  BALSun, Dec 27 13:00 ET | BAL +10 | 43.5 | NYG 13 at BAL 27BAL +10 closed · BAL covered |
 PHI @  DALSun, Dec 27 16:25 ET | DAL -3 | 50 | PHI 17 at DAL 37DAL -3 closed · DAL covered |
 TEN @  GBSun, Dec 27 20:20 ET | GB +3 | 52.5 | TEN 14 at GB 40GB +3 closed · GB covered |
 BUF @  NEMon, Dec 28 20:15 ET | NE -7 | 47 | BUF 38 at NE 9NE -7 closed · BUF covered |
The plays
A play is an angle with a prior record, staked by that record. The model's number alone is never a play.
The angle board mined, walk-forward record behind each
BUF @ NE - model fades them by 0.5+, big favorite (7+), more rest than the opponent, worse QB 15-9 (62%)
- model fades them by 2.0+, big favorite (7+), more rest than the opponent, worse QB 13-8 (62%)
- model fades them by 1.0+, big favorite (7+), more rest than the opponent, worse QB 14-9 (61%)
- and 3 more angles on this side
CIN @ HOU - model fades them by 1.0+, more rest than the opponent, better coach, in a dome 24-15 (62%)
- model fades them by 1.0+, better QB, better coach, in a dome 97-63 (61%)
NYG @ BAL - model fades them by 0.5+, big underdog (7+), lost last week, bad QB 16-7 (70%)
TEN @ GB - model fades them by 0.5+, underdog, better QB, elite QB 46-30 (60%)
- model fades them by 3.0+, underdog, less rest than the opponent, won last week 12-8 (60%)
IND @ PIT TOTAL- over when line inside 3, home team off Monday night 69-50 (58%)
- over when a team looking ahead to a division game, home team off Monday night 97-73 (57%)
- over when home team off Monday night 169-134 (56%)
- and 2 more angles on this side
LA @ SEA TOTAL- under when high total (48+), division game 143-107 (57%)
- under when rain in the forecast, division game 120-94 (56%)
PHI @ DAL TOTAL- under when high total (48+), division game 143-107 (57%)
SF @ ARI TOTAL- under when high total (48+), division game 143-107 (57%)
TB @ DET TOTAL- under when high total (48+), home team a big underdog 42-18 (70%)
CHI @ JAX TOTAL- under when home team a big underdog, a new starting QB 68-53 (56%)
MIA @ LV TOTAL- over when a team looking ahead to a division game, road team travelled 1,500+ miles 248-201 (55%)
Read it straight. Five rules frozen 2026-08-28 before Week 1, git-timestamped, append-only. Flat 1u. Historical: the frozen card went 91-83, +6.8u over 2015-2025, 7 of 11 winning seasons; the weather family 362-334-11, +19.1u over 2010-2025. This season was replayed walk-forward: the angles were chosen on the seasons before it and fired on its games, so nothing here was scored on the games that found it. It is a replay, not a published record. 2026 is the first season we posted before kickoff.