Weekly Lines · 2021
Week 1.
16 games and 11 plays, replayed walk-forward on angles chosen from the seasons before 2021. Every number is open.
This week's plays: 6-5, +1.5u flat at -110. Season through week 1: 6-5, +1.5u flat at -110.
| Game | Market | Total | Final |
|---|---|---|---|
 DAL @  TBThu, Sep 9 20:20 ET | TB +10 | 52.5 | DAL 29 at TB 31TB +10 closed · DAL covered |
 ARI @  TENSun, Sep 12 13:00 ET | TEN +2.5 | 54 | ARI 38 at TEN 13TEN +2.5 closed · ARI covered |
 CHI @  LASun, Sep 12 20:20 ET | LA +9.5 | 46 | CHI 14 at LA 34LA +9.5 closed · LA covered |
 CLE @  KCSun, Sep 12 16:25 ET | KC +5.5 | 54.5 | CLE 29 at KC 33KC +5.5 closed · CLE covered |
 DEN @  NYGSun, Sep 12 16:25 ET | NYG -3 | 41.5 | DEN 27 at NYG 13NYG -3 closed · DEN covered |
 GB @  NOSun, Sep 12 16:25 ET | NO -4 | 49 | GB 3 at NO 38NO -4 closed · NO covered |
 JAX @  HOUSun, Sep 12 13:00 ET | HOU -3.5 | 45.5 | JAX 21 at HOU 37HOU -3.5 closed · HOU covered |
 LAC @  WASSun, Sep 12 13:00 ET | WAS +2.5 | 45.5 | LAC 20 at WAS 16WAS +2.5 closed · LAC covered |
 MIA @  NESun, Sep 12 16:25 ET | NE +3.5 | 43.5 | MIA 17 at NE 16NE +3.5 closed · MIA covered |
 MIN @  CINSun, Sep 12 13:00 ET | CIN -3 | 47 | MIN 24 at CIN 27CIN -3 closed · CIN covered |
 NYJ @  CARSun, Sep 12 13:00 ET | CAR +3.5 | 44.5 | NYJ 14 at CAR 19CAR +3.5 closed · CAR covered |
 PHI @  ATLSun, Sep 12 13:00 ET | ATL +3.5 | 49 | PHI 32 at ATL 6ATL +3.5 closed · PHI covered |
 PIT @  BUFSun, Sep 12 13:00 ET | BUF +6.5 | 48 | PIT 23 at BUF 16BUF +6.5 closed · PIT covered |
 SEA @  INDSun, Sep 12 13:00 ET | IND -3 | 49 | SEA 28 at IND 16IND -3 closed · SEA covered |
 SF @  DETSun, Sep 12 13:00 ET | DET -9.5 | 46 | SF 41 at DET 33DET -9.5 closed · DET covered |
 BAL @  LVMon, Sep 13 20:15 ET | LV -3 | 50.5 | BAL 27 at LV 33LV -3 closed · LV covered |
The plays
A play is an angle with a prior record, staked by that record. The model's number alone is never a play.
The angle board mined, walk-forward record behind each
PHI @ ATL - model fades them by 3.0+, better QB, on turf, high total (48+) 40-18 (69%)
- model fades them by 2.0+, better QB, on turf, high total (48+) 57-37 (61%)
MIA @ NE - model fades them by 3.0+, favorite, at home, division game 148-97 (60%)
MIA @ NE TOTAL- over when windy, early season 50-32 (61%)
DEN @ NYG TOTAL- over when windy, early season 50-32 (61%)
- over when early season, road team travelled 1,500+ miles 172-138 (56%)
PIT @ BUF TOTAL- over when windy, early season 50-32 (61%)
MIN @ CIN TOTAL- over when windy, early season 50-32 (61%)
BAL @ LV TOTAL- over when early season, road team travelled 1,500+ miles 172-138 (56%)
CHI @ LA TOTAL- over when early season, road team travelled 1,500+ miles 172-138 (56%)
SF @ DET TOTAL- over when early season, road team travelled 1,500+ miles 172-138 (56%)
SEA @ IND TOTAL- over when early season, road team travelled 1,500+ miles 172-138 (56%)
LAC @ WAS TOTAL- over when early season, road team travelled 1,500+ miles 172-138 (56%)
Read it straight. Five rules frozen 2026-08-28 before Week 1, git-timestamped, append-only. Flat 1u. Historical: the frozen card went 91-83, +6.8u over 2015-2025, 7 of 11 winning seasons; the weather family 362-334-11, +19.1u over 2010-2025. This season was replayed walk-forward: the angles were chosen on the seasons before it and fired on its games, so nothing here was scored on the games that found it. It is a replay, not a published record. 2026 is the first season we posted before kickoff.