Weekly Lines · 2021
Week 5.
16 games and 10 plays, replayed walk-forward on angles chosen from the seasons before 2021. Every number is open.
This week's plays: 6-4, +0.5u flat at -110. Season through week 5: 26-23, +0.4u flat at -110.
| Game | Market | Total | Final |
|---|---|---|---|
 LA @  SEAThu, Oct 7 20:20 ET | SEA -2.5 | 53.5 | LA 26 at SEA 17SEA -2.5 closed · LA covered |
 BUF @  KCSun, Oct 10 20:20 ET | KC +2.5 | 57 | BUF 38 at KC 20KC +2.5 closed · BUF covered |
 CHI @  LVSun, Oct 10 16:05 ET | LV +5.5 | 46 | CHI 20 at LV 9LV +5.5 closed · CHI covered |
 CLE @  LACSun, Oct 10 16:05 ET | LAC +2.5 | 46.5 | CLE 42 at LAC 47LAC +2.5 closed · LAC covered |
 DEN @  PITSun, Oct 10 13:00 ET | PIT -2 | 40 | DEN 19 at PIT 27PIT -2 closed · PIT covered |
 DET @  MINSun, Oct 10 13:00 ET | MIN +10 | 49.5 | DET 17 at MIN 19MIN +10 closed · DET covered |
 GB @  CINSun, Oct 10 13:00 ET | CIN -2 | 50 | GB 25 at CIN 22CIN -2 closed · GB covered |
 MIA @  TBSun, Oct 10 13:00 ET | TB +11 | 48 | MIA 17 at TB 45TB +11 closed · TB covered |
 NE @  HOUSun, Oct 10 13:00 ET | HOU -8 | 39.5 | NE 25 at HOU 22HOU -8 closed · HOU covered |
 NO @  WASSun, Oct 10 13:00 ET | WAS -2.5 | 43.5 | NO 33 at WAS 22WAS -2.5 closed · NO covered |
 NYG @  DALSun, Oct 10 16:25 ET | DAL +7.5 | 53 | NYG 20 at DAL 44DAL +7.5 closed · DAL covered |
 NYJ @  ATLSun, Oct 10 09:30 ET | ATL +3 | 45.5 | NYJ 20 at ATL 27ATL +3 closed · ATL covered |
 PHI @  CARSun, Oct 10 13:00 ET | CAR +2.5 | 46 | PHI 21 at CAR 18CAR +2.5 closed · PHI covered |
 SF @  ARISun, Oct 10 16:25 ET | ARI +6 | 48.5 | SF 10 at ARI 17ARI +6 closed · ARI covered |
 TEN @  JAXSun, Oct 10 13:00 ET | JAX -4 | 49 | TEN 37 at JAX 19JAX -4 closed · TEN covered |
 IND @  BALMon, Oct 11 20:15 ET | BAL +7.5 | 46.5 | IND 25 at BAL 31BAL +7.5 closed · IND covered |
The plays
A play is an angle with a prior record, staked by that record. The model's number alone is never a play.
The angle board mined, walk-forward record behind each
BUF @ KC - model likes them by 1.0+, underdog, blew someone out last week, elite QB 35-22 (61%)
CLE @ LAC - model fades them by 2.0+, favorite, blew someone out last week, in a dome 51-26 (66%)
- model fades them by 2.0+, less rest than the opponent, blew someone out last week, on turf 25-13 (66%)
- model fades them by 2.0+, less rest than the opponent, won last week, on turf 49-31 (61%)
- and 5 more angles on this side
MIA @ TB - model fades them by 3.0+, big favorite (7+), better coach, high total (48+) 36-22 (62%)
CLE @ LAC TOTAL- over when home team off Monday night, road team travelled 1,500+ miles 40-22 (64%)
- over when early season, home team off Monday night 61-45 (57%)
- over when on turf, home team off Monday night 85-63 (57%)
- and 3 more angles on this side
CHI @ LV TOTAL- over when home team off Monday night, road team travelled 1,500+ miles 40-22 (64%)
- over when early season, home team off Monday night 61-45 (57%)
- over when in a dome, home team off Monday night 47-35 (57%)
- and 4 more angles on this side
NE @ HOU TOTAL- over when in a dome, low total (41 or under) 96-62 (61%)
- over when on turf, low total (41 or under) 196-153 (56%)
- over when early season, road team travelled 1,500+ miles 172-138 (56%)
- and 2 more angles on this side
DEN @ PIT TOTAL- over when low total (41 or under), early season 212-171 (55%)
SF @ ARI TOTAL- over when a new starting QB, early season 93-76 (55%)
MIA @ TB TOTAL- over when a new starting QB, early season 93-76 (55%)
NYJ @ ATL TOTAL- over when early season, road team travelled 1,500+ miles 172-138 (56%)
Read it straight. Five rules frozen 2026-08-28 before Week 1, git-timestamped, append-only. Flat 1u. Historical: the frozen card went 91-83, +6.8u over 2015-2025, 7 of 11 winning seasons; the weather family 362-334-11, +19.1u over 2010-2025. This season was replayed walk-forward: the angles were chosen on the seasons before it and fired on its games, so nothing here was scored on the games that found it. It is a replay, not a published record. 2026 is the first season we posted before kickoff.