Weekly Lines · 2021
Week 15.
16 games and 11 plays, replayed walk-forward on angles chosen from the seasons before 2021. Every number is open.
This week's plays: 6-5, +3.5u flat at -110. Season through week 15: 69-60, +0.8u flat at -110.
| Game | Market | Total | Final |
|---|---|---|---|
 KC @  LACThu, Dec 16 20:20 ET | LAC -3 | 54 | KC 34 at LAC 28LAC -3 closed · KC covered |
 NE @  INDSat, Dec 18 20:20 ET | IND -1 | 46 | NE 17 at IND 27IND -1 closed · IND covered |
 ARI @  DETSun, Dec 19 13:00 ET | DET -13 | 48 | ARI 12 at DET 30DET -13 closed · DET covered |
 ATL @  SFSun, Dec 19 16:05 ET | SF +9.5 | 48 | ATL 13 at SF 31SF +9.5 closed · SF covered |
 CAR @  BUFSun, Dec 19 13:00 ET | BUF +14 | 43 | CAR 14 at BUF 31BUF +14 closed · BUF covered |
 CIN @  DENSun, Dec 19 16:05 ET | DEN +3 | 45 | CIN 15 at DEN 10DEN +3 closed · CIN covered |
 DAL @  NYGSun, Dec 19 13:00 ET | NYG -11.5 | 43 | DAL 21 at NYG 6NYG -11.5 closed · DAL covered |
 GB @  BALSun, Dec 19 16:25 ET | BAL -9.5 | 45.5 | GB 31 at BAL 30BAL -9.5 closed · BAL covered |
 HOU @  JAXSun, Dec 19 13:00 ET | JAX +6 | 40 | HOU 30 at JAX 16JAX +6 closed · HOU covered |
 NO @  TBSun, Dec 19 20:20 ET | TB +11.5 | 45.5 | NO 9 at TB 0TB +11.5 closed · NO covered |
 NYJ @  MIASun, Dec 19 13:00 ET | MIA +10.5 | 42 | NYJ 24 at MIA 31MIA +10.5 closed · NYJ covered |
 TEN @  PITSun, Dec 19 13:00 ET | PIT +1 | 44 | TEN 13 at PIT 19PIT +1 closed · PIT covered |
 LV @  CLEMon, Dec 20 17:00 ET | CLE -3 | 41 | LV 16 at CLE 14CLE -3 closed · CLE covered |
 MIN @  CHIMon, Dec 20 20:15 ET | CHI -7 | 48 | MIN 17 at CHI 9CHI -7 closed · MIN covered |
 SEA @  LATue, Dec 21 19:00 ET | LA +7.5 | 47 | SEA 10 at LA 20LA +7.5 closed · LA covered |
 WAS @  PHITue, Dec 21 19:00 ET | PHI +10 | 39.5 | WAS 17 at PHI 27PHI +10 closed · push |
The plays
A play is an angle with a prior record, staked by that record. The model's number alone is never a play.
The angle board mined, walk-forward record behind each
CAR @ BUF LOSS BUF -14 1.0u
- model fades them by 3.0+, better QB, better coach, on turf 96-60 (62%)
- model fades them by 3.0+, big favorite (7+), elite QB, on turf 59-38 (61%)
MIN @ CHI LOSS CHI +7 1.0u
- model likes them by 0.5+, big underdog (7+), less rest than the opponent, division game 32-21 (60%)
- model likes them by 0.5+, less rest than the opponent, got blown out last week, division game 30-20 (60%)
GB @ BAL WIN GB -9.5 1.0u
- model fades them by 3.0+, big favorite (7+), on the road, elite QB 51-33 (61%)
- model fades them by 2.0+, on the road, blew someone out last week, better coach 77-50 (61%)
- model fades them by 2.0+, big favorite (7+), on the road, elite QB 60-40 (60%)
NE @ IND WIN IND +1 3.0u
- model likes them by 1.0+, blew someone out last week, bad QB, on turf 16-6 (73%)
- model likes them by 0.5+, blew someone out last week, bad QB, on turf 16-9 (64%)
- model likes them by 3.0+, at home, more rest than the opponent, blew someone out last week 14-8 (64%)
- and 11 more angles on this side
NYJ @ MIA WIN NYJ +10.5 2.0u
- model likes them by 0.5+, on the road, less rest than the opponent, got blown out last week 32-15 (68%)
- model likes them by 0.5+, big underdog (7+), less rest than the opponent, better QB 19-11 (63%)
- model likes them by 0.5+, on the road, less rest than the opponent, division game 58-34 (63%)
- and 2 more angles on this side
SEA @ LA TOTALLOSS Over 47.0 1.0u
- over when on turf, home team off Monday night 85-63 (57%)
- over when in a dome, home team off Monday night 47-35 (57%)
- over when late season, home team off Monday night 57-45 (56%)
- and 1 more angle on this side
NO @ TB TOTALWIN Under 45.5 1.0u
- under when rain in the forecast, a new starting QB 98-71 (58%)
- under when rain in the forecast, division game 129-105 (55%)
NYJ @ MIA TOTALLOSS Under 42.0 1.0u
- under when rain in the forecast, division game 129-105 (55%)
TEN @ PIT TOTALLOSS Over 44.0 1.0u
- over when under 40 degrees, line inside 3 75-60 (56%)
MIN @ CHI TOTALWIN Under 48.0 1.0u
- under when high total (48+), home team a big underdog 47-25 (65%)
ARI @ DET TOTALWIN Under 48.0 1.0u
- under when high total (48+), home team a big underdog 47-25 (65%)
- under when high total (48+), road team off Monday night 26-16 (62%)
Read it straight. Five rules frozen 2026-08-28 before Week 1, git-timestamped, append-only. Flat 1u. Historical: the frozen card went 91-83, +6.8u over 2015-2025, 7 of 11 winning seasons; the weather family 362-334-11, +19.1u over 2010-2025. This season was replayed walk-forward: the angles were chosen on the seasons before it and fired on its games, so nothing here was scored on the games that found it. It is a replay, not a published record. 2026 is the first season we posted before kickoff.