Weekly Lines · 2021
Week 17.
16 games and 11 plays, replayed walk-forward on angles chosen from the seasons before 2021. Every number is open.
This week's plays: 5-6, -0.6u flat at -110. Season through week 17: 76-71, -3.3u flat at -110.
| Game | Market | Total | Final |
|---|---|---|---|
 ARI @  DALSun, Jan 2 16:25 ET | DAL +6.5 | 53 | ARI 25 at DAL 22DAL +6.5 closed · ARI covered |
 ATL @  BUFSun, Jan 2 13:00 ET | BUF +14 | 46.5 | ATL 15 at BUF 29BUF +14 closed · push |
 CAR @  NOSun, Jan 2 16:25 ET | NO +7 | 37 | CAR 10 at NO 18NO +7 closed · NO covered |
 DEN @  LACSun, Jan 2 16:05 ET | LAC +8 | 45.5 | DEN 13 at LAC 34LAC +8 closed · LAC covered |
 DET @  SEASun, Jan 2 16:25 ET | SEA +8.5 | 41.5 | DET 29 at SEA 51SEA +8.5 closed · SEA covered |
 HOU @  SFSun, Jan 2 16:05 ET | SF +14 | 44 | HOU 7 at SF 23SF +14 closed · SF covered |
 JAX @  NESun, Jan 2 13:00 ET | NE +17.5 | 42 | JAX 10 at NE 50NE +17.5 closed · NE covered |
 KC @  CINSun, Jan 2 13:00 ET | CIN -3.5 | 51 | KC 31 at CIN 34CIN -3.5 closed · CIN covered |
 LA @  BALSun, Jan 2 13:00 ET | BAL -7 | 47 | LA 20 at BAL 19BAL -7 closed · BAL covered |
 LV @  INDSun, Jan 2 13:00 ET | IND +8.5 | 46.5 | LV 23 at IND 20IND +8.5 closed · LV covered |
 MIA @  TENSun, Jan 2 13:00 ET | TEN +3 | 41 | MIA 3 at TEN 34TEN +3 closed · TEN covered |
 MIN @  GBSun, Jan 2 20:20 ET | GB +13 | 42 | MIN 10 at GB 37GB +13 closed · GB covered |
 NYG @  CHISun, Jan 2 13:00 ET | CHI +7 | 36.5 | NYG 3 at CHI 29CHI +7 closed · CHI covered |
 PHI @  WASSun, Jan 2 13:00 ET | WAS -6.5 | 44.5 | PHI 20 at WAS 16WAS -6.5 closed · WAS covered |
 TB @  NYJSun, Jan 2 13:00 ET | NYJ -14.5 | 48 | TB 28 at NYJ 24NYJ -14.5 closed · NYJ covered |
 CLE @  PITMon, Jan 3 20:15 ET | PIT -1 | 43.5 | CLE 14 at PIT 26PIT -1 closed · PIT covered |
The plays
A play is an angle with a prior record, staked by that record. The model's number alone is never a play.
The angle board mined, walk-forward record behind each
ARI @ DAL - model likes them by 0.5+, less rest than the opponent, blew someone out last week, in a dome 14-8 (64%)
- model likes them by 0.5+, less rest than the opponent, blew someone out last week, high total (48+) 22-13 (63%)
- model likes them by 1.0+, less rest than the opponent, blew someone out last week, in a dome 13-8 (62%)
- and 2 more angles on this side
PHI @ WAS - model fades them by 2.0+, better record, bad QB, division game 24-15 (62%)
- model fades them by 1.0+, better record, bad QB, division game 34-22 (61%)
- model fades them by 2.0+, on the road, blew someone out last week, better coach 77-50 (61%)
DET @ SEA - model likes them by 1.0+, big favorite (7+), lost last week, better coach 18-8 (69%)
- model likes them by 1.0+, big favorite (7+), lost last week, elite QB 17-9 (65%)
- model likes them by 0.5+, big favorite (7+), lost last week, better coach 23-14 (62%)
- and 2 more angles on this side
CAR @ NO TOTAL- over when in a dome, low total (41 or under) 96-62 (61%)
- over when on turf, home team off Monday night 85-63 (57%)
- over when in a dome, home team off Monday night 47-35 (57%)
- and 4 more angles on this side
PHI @ WAS TOTAL- under when rain in the forecast, division game 129-105 (55%)
DET @ SEA TOTAL- under when rain in the forecast, a new starting QB 98-71 (58%)
LA @ BAL TOTAL- under when rain in the forecast, a new starting QB 98-71 (58%)
NYG @ CHI TOTAL- under when rain in the forecast, a new starting QB 98-71 (58%)
CLE @ PIT TOTAL- over when under 40 degrees, line inside 3 75-60 (56%)
TB @ NYJ TOTAL- under when high total (48+), home team a big underdog 47-25 (65%)
MIA @ TEN TOTAL- over when low total (41 or under), road team off Monday night 35-22 (61%)
Read it straight. Five rules frozen 2026-08-28 before Week 1, git-timestamped, append-only. Flat 1u. Historical: the frozen card went 91-83, +6.8u over 2015-2025, 7 of 11 winning seasons; the weather family 362-334-11, +19.1u over 2010-2025. This season was replayed walk-forward: the angles were chosen on the seasons before it and fired on its games, so nothing here was scored on the games that found it. It is a replay, not a published record. 2026 is the first season we posted before kickoff.