Weekly Lines · 2021
Week 9.
14 games and 8 plays, replayed walk-forward on angles chosen from the seasons before 2021. Every number is open.
This week's plays: 5-3, +1.7u flat at -110. Season through week 9: 46-37, +2.8u flat at -110.
| Game | Market | Total | Final |
|---|---|---|---|
 NYJ @  INDThu, Nov 4 20:20 ET | IND +10.5 | 46 | NYJ 30 at IND 45IND +10.5 closed · IND covered |
 ARI @  SFSun, Nov 7 16:25 ET | SF +5.5 | 44.5 | ARI 31 at SF 17SF +5.5 closed · ARI covered |
 ATL @  NOSun, Nov 7 13:00 ET | NO +7 | 43 | ATL 27 at NO 25NO +7 closed · ATL covered |
 BUF @  JAXSun, Nov 7 13:00 ET | JAX -14.5 | 48 | BUF 6 at JAX 9JAX -14.5 closed · JAX covered |
 CLE @  CINSun, Nov 7 13:00 ET | CIN +2.5 | 47.5 | CLE 41 at CIN 16CIN +2.5 closed · CLE covered |
 DEN @  DALSun, Nov 7 13:00 ET | DAL +10.5 | 50 | DEN 30 at DAL 16DAL +10.5 closed · DEN covered |
 GB @  KCSun, Nov 7 16:25 ET | KC +7 | 48 | GB 7 at KC 13KC +7 closed · GB covered |
 HOU @  MIASun, Nov 7 13:00 ET | MIA +4 | 45 | HOU 9 at MIA 17MIA +4 closed · MIA covered |
 LAC @  PHISun, Nov 7 16:05 ET | PHI -1 | 49.5 | LAC 27 at PHI 24PHI -1 closed · LAC covered |
 LV @  NYGSun, Nov 7 13:00 ET | NYG -3 | 47 | LV 16 at NYG 23NYG -3 closed · NYG covered |
 MIN @  BALSun, Nov 7 13:00 ET | BAL +7.5 | 51 | MIN 31 at BAL 34BAL +7.5 closed · MIN covered |
 NE @  CARSun, Nov 7 13:00 ET | CAR -3.5 | 41.5 | NE 24 at CAR 6CAR -3.5 closed · NE covered |
 TEN @  LASun, Nov 7 20:20 ET | LA +7 | 53.5 | TEN 28 at LA 16LA +7 closed · TEN covered |
 CHI @  PITMon, Nov 8 20:15 ET | PIT +7 | 40 | CHI 27 at PIT 29PIT +7 closed · CHI covered |
The plays
A play is an angle with a prior record, staked by that record. The model's number alone is never a play.
The angle board mined, walk-forward record behind each
BUF @ JAC - model fades them by 3.0+, big favorite (7+), better coach, high total (48+) 36-22 (62%)
- model fades them by 3.0+, big favorite (7+), on the road, elite QB 51-33 (61%)
- model fades them by 2.0+, on the road, blew someone out last week, better coach 77-50 (61%)
- and 1 more angle on this side
GB @ KC - model fades them by 2.0+, at home, less rest than the opponent, elite QB 28-18 (61%)
- model fades them by 2.0+, at home, less rest than the opponent, won last week 63-42 (60%)
ATL @ NO - model likes them by 3.0+, won last week, division game, in a dome 49-32 (60%)
- model likes them by 3.0+, at home, better record, in a dome 44-29 (60%)
- model likes them by 3.0+, favorite, better record, in a dome 42-28 (60%)
CHI @ PIT - model fades them by 3.0+, at home, better coach, low total (41 or under) 68-40 (63%)
- model fades them by 2.0+, favorite, better coach, low total (41 or under) 145-91 (61%)
- model fades them by 3.0+, better coach, low total (41 or under) 128-81 (61%)
- and 6 more angles on this side
ARI @ SF - model fades them by 3.0+, favorite, at home, division game 148-97 (60%)
- model fades them by 2.0+, less rest than the opponent, won last week, division game 44-29 (60%)
- model fades them by 2.0+, at home, less rest than the opponent, won last week 63-42 (60%)
GB @ KC TOTAL- over when high total (48+), home team off Monday night 48-29 (62%)
- over when a team looking ahead to a division game, home team off Monday night 103-79 (57%)
- over when home team off Monday night 182-144 (56%)
LV @ NYG TOTAL- over when home team off Monday night, road team travelled 1,500+ miles 40-22 (64%)
- over when on turf, home team off Monday night 85-63 (57%)
- over when a team looking ahead to a division game, home team off Monday night 103-79 (57%)
- and 1 more angle on this side
BUF @ JAX TOTAL- under when high total (48+), home team a big underdog 47-25 (65%)
Read it straight. Five rules frozen 2026-08-28 before Week 1, git-timestamped, append-only. Flat 1u. Historical: the frozen card went 91-83, +6.8u over 2015-2025, 7 of 11 winning seasons; the weather family 362-334-11, +19.1u over 2010-2025. This season was replayed walk-forward: the angles were chosen on the seasons before it and fired on its games, so nothing here was scored on the games that found it. It is a replay, not a published record. 2026 is the first season we posted before kickoff.