Weekly Lines · 2021
Week 3.
16 games and 8 plays, replayed walk-forward on angles chosen from the seasons before 2021. Every number is open.
This week's plays: 4-4, +0.5u flat at -110. Season through week 3: 15-16, -0.7u flat at -110.
| Game | Market | Total | Final |
|---|---|---|---|
 CAR @  HOUThu, Sep 23 20:20 ET | HOU -8 | 43 | CAR 24 at HOU 9HOU -8 closed · CAR covered |
 ARI @  JAXSun, Sep 26 13:00 ET | JAX -8 | 51.5 | ARI 31 at JAX 19JAX -8 closed · ARI covered |
 ATL @  NYGSun, Sep 26 13:00 ET | NYG +3 | 48 | ATL 17 at NYG 14NYG +3 closed · ATL covered |
 BAL @  DETSun, Sep 26 13:00 ET | DET -7.5 | 51 | BAL 19 at DET 17DET -7.5 closed · DET covered |
 CHI @  CLESun, Sep 26 13:00 ET | CLE +7.5 | 45 | CHI 6 at CLE 26CLE +7.5 closed · CLE covered |
 CIN @  PITSun, Sep 26 13:00 ET | PIT +2.5 | 42.5 | CIN 24 at PIT 10PIT +2.5 closed · CIN covered |
 GB @  SFSun, Sep 26 20:20 ET | SF +3.5 | 50.5 | GB 30 at SF 28SF +3.5 closed · GB covered |
 IND @  TENSun, Sep 26 13:00 ET | TEN +4.5 | 47 | IND 16 at TEN 25TEN +4.5 closed · TEN covered |
 LAC @  KCSun, Sep 26 13:00 ET | KC +6.5 | 55 | LAC 30 at KC 24KC +6.5 closed · LAC covered |
 MIA @  LVSun, Sep 26 16:05 ET | LV +4 | 45 | MIA 28 at LV 31LV +4 closed · MIA covered |
 NO @  NESun, Sep 26 13:00 ET | NE +3 | 44 | NO 28 at NE 13NE +3 closed · NO covered |
 NYJ @  DENSun, Sep 26 16:05 ET | DEN +10.5 | 42 | NYJ 0 at DEN 26DEN +10.5 closed · DEN covered |
 SEA @  MINSun, Sep 26 16:25 ET | MIN -2 | 53.5 | SEA 17 at MIN 30MIN -2 closed · MIN covered |
 TB @  LASun, Sep 26 16:25 ET | LA -1 | 55 | TB 24 at LA 34LA -1 closed · LA covered |
 WAS @  BUFSun, Sep 26 13:00 ET | BUF +7.5 | 45.5 | WAS 21 at BUF 43BUF +7.5 closed · BUF covered |
 PHI @  DALMon, Sep 27 20:15 ET | DAL +3.5 | 51.5 | PHI 21 at DAL 41DAL +3.5 closed · DAL covered |
The plays
A play is an angle with a prior record, staked by that record. The model's number alone is never a play.
The angle board mined, walk-forward record behind each
PHI @ DAL - model fades them by 3.0+, better QB, on turf, high total (48+) 40-18 (69%)
- model fades them by 2.0+, better QB, on turf, high total (48+) 57-37 (61%)
- model fades them by 3.0+, favorite, at home, division game 148-97 (60%)
GB @ SF - model likes them by 0.5+, less rest than the opponent, blew someone out last week, elite QB 24-10 (71%)
- model likes them by 1.0+, less rest than the opponent, blew someone out last week, elite QB 22-10 (69%)
- model likes them by 0.5+, on the road, less rest than the opponent, elite QB 36-18 (67%)
- and 11 more angles on this side
WAS @ BUF TOTAL- over when windy, early season 50-32 (61%)
CHI @ CLE TOTAL- over when windy, early season 50-32 (61%)
LAC @ KC TOTAL- over when windy, early season 50-32 (61%)
TB @ LA TOTAL- over when early season, road team travelled 1,500+ miles 172-138 (56%)
NYJ @ DEN TOTAL- over when early season, road team travelled 1,500+ miles 172-138 (56%)
MIA @ LV TOTAL- over when early season, road team travelled 1,500+ miles 172-138 (56%)
Read it straight. Five rules frozen 2026-08-28 before Week 1, git-timestamped, append-only. Flat 1u. Historical: the frozen card went 91-83, +6.8u over 2015-2025, 7 of 11 winning seasons; the weather family 362-334-11, +19.1u over 2010-2025. This season was replayed walk-forward: the angles were chosen on the seasons before it and fired on its games, so nothing here was scored on the games that found it. It is a replay, not a published record. 2026 is the first season we posted before kickoff.