Weekly Lines · 2021
Week 11.
15 games and 9 plays, replayed walk-forward on angles chosen from the seasons before 2021. Every number is open.
This week's plays: 4-5, -1.7u flat at -110. Season through week 11: 53-45, -0.3u flat at -110.
| Game | Market | Total | Final |
|---|---|---|---|
 NE @  ATLThu, Nov 18 20:20 ET | ATL -7 | 47.5 | NE 25 at ATL 0ATL -7 closed · NE covered |
 ARI @  SEASun, Nov 21 16:25 ET | SEA +2.5 | 46 | ARI 23 at SEA 13SEA +2.5 closed · ARI covered |
 BAL @  CHISun, Nov 21 13:00 ET | CHI -5 | 43 | BAL 16 at CHI 13CHI -5 closed · CHI covered |
 CIN @  LVSun, Nov 21 16:05 ET | LV -1 | 50.5 | CIN 32 at LV 13LV -1 closed · CIN covered |
 DAL @  KCSun, Nov 21 16:25 ET | KC +2.5 | 56 | DAL 9 at KC 19KC +2.5 closed · KC covered |
 DET @  CLESun, Nov 21 13:00 ET | CLE +13 | 42.5 | DET 10 at CLE 13CLE +13 closed · DET covered |
 GB @  MINSun, Nov 21 13:00 ET | MIN -1 | 48 | GB 31 at MIN 34MIN -1 closed · MIN covered |
 HOU @  TENSun, Nov 21 13:00 ET | TEN +10.5 | 44.5 | HOU 22 at TEN 13TEN +10.5 closed · HOU covered |
 IND @  BUFSun, Nov 21 13:00 ET | BUF +7.5 | 49.5 | IND 41 at BUF 15BUF +7.5 closed · IND covered |
 MIA @  NYJSun, Nov 21 13:00 ET | NYJ -3.5 | 44.5 | MIA 24 at NYJ 17NYJ -3.5 closed · MIA covered |
 NO @  PHISun, Nov 21 13:00 ET | PHI +2.5 | 42.5 | NO 29 at PHI 40PHI +2.5 closed · PHI covered |
 PIT @  LACSun, Nov 21 20:20 ET | LAC +5.5 | 47.5 | PIT 37 at LAC 41LAC +5.5 closed · PIT covered |
 SF @  JAXSun, Nov 21 13:00 ET | JAX -6.5 | 45 | SF 30 at JAX 10JAX -6.5 closed · SF covered |
 WAS @  CARSun, Nov 21 13:00 ET | CAR +3.5 | 43 | WAS 27 at CAR 21CAR +3.5 closed · WAS covered |
 NYG @  TBMon, Nov 22 20:15 ET | TB +11.5 | 49.5 | NYG 10 at TB 30TB +11.5 closed · TB covered |
The plays
A play is an angle with a prior record, staked by that record. The model's number alone is never a play.
The angle board mined, walk-forward record behind each
BAL @ CHI - model likes them by 0.5+, favorite, on the road, less rest than the opponent 21-10 (68%)
DET @ CLE - model likes them by 1.0+, big favorite (7+), lost last week, better coach 18-8 (69%)
- model likes them by 1.0+, big favorite (7+), lost last week, elite QB 17-9 (65%)
- model likes them by 0.5+, big favorite (7+), lost last week, better coach 23-14 (62%)
- and 3 more angles on this side
IND @ BUF - model fades them by 1.0+, big underdog (7+), worse QB, bad QB 22-14 (61%)
- model fades them by 0.5+, big underdog (7+), worse QB, bad QB 27-18 (60%)
DAL @ KC - model likes them by 3.0+, favorite, worse record, elite QB 13-7 (65%)
- model likes them by 3.0+, blew someone out last week, elite QB, better coach 27-17 (61%)
- model likes them by 3.0+, blew someone out last week, better coach, high total (48+) 17-11 (61%)
MIA @ NYJ - model likes them by 1.0+, better record, bad QB, on turf 19-10 (66%)
- model likes them by 0.5+, better record, bad QB, on turf 19-11 (63%)
- model likes them by 0.5+, favorite, more rest than the opponent, division game 41-25 (62%)
- and 2 more angles on this side
HOU @ TEN - model likes them by 0.5+, big favorite (7+), less rest than the opponent, elite QB 17-10 (63%)
- model likes them by 0.5+, big favorite (7+), less rest than the opponent, better QB 22-13 (63%)
- model likes them by 1.0+, big favorite (7+), less rest than the opponent, elite QB 15-9 (62%)
- and 5 more angles on this side
BAL @ CHI TOTAL- over when a team looking ahead to a division game, home team off Monday night 103-79 (57%)
- over when home team off Monday night 182-144 (56%)
HOU @ TEN TOTAL- under when rain in the forecast, a new starting QB 98-71 (58%)
- under when rain in the forecast, division game 129-105 (55%)
DET @ CLE TOTAL- under when rain in the forecast, a new starting QB 98-71 (58%)
Read it straight. Five rules frozen 2026-08-28 before Week 1, git-timestamped, append-only. Flat 1u. Historical: the frozen card went 91-83, +6.8u over 2015-2025, 7 of 11 winning seasons; the weather family 362-334-11, +19.1u over 2010-2025. This season was replayed walk-forward: the angles were chosen on the seasons before it and fired on its games, so nothing here was scored on the games that found it. It is a replay, not a published record. 2026 is the first season we posted before kickoff.