Weekly Lines · 2021
Week 6.
14 games and 9 plays, replayed walk-forward on angles chosen from the seasons before 2021. Every number is open.
This week's plays: 6-3, +2.7u flat at -110. Season through week 6: 32-26, +3.1u flat at -110.
| Game | Market | Total | Final |
|---|---|---|---|
 TB @  PHIThu, Oct 14 20:20 ET | PHI -7 | 53 | TB 28 at PHI 22PHI -7 closed · PHI covered |
 ARI @  CLESun, Oct 17 16:05 ET | CLE +3 | 48 | ARI 37 at CLE 14CLE +3 closed · ARI covered |
 CIN @  DETSun, Oct 17 13:00 ET | DET -3.5 | 46.5 | CIN 34 at DET 11DET -3.5 closed · CIN covered |
 DAL @  NESun, Oct 17 16:25 ET | NE -3.5 | 50.5 | DAL 35 at NE 29NE -3.5 closed · DAL covered |
 GB @  CHISun, Oct 17 13:00 ET | CHI -5.5 | 44 | GB 24 at CHI 14CHI -5.5 closed · GB covered |
 HOU @  INDSun, Oct 17 13:00 ET | IND +10.5 | 43.5 | HOU 3 at IND 31IND +10.5 closed · IND covered |
 KC @  WASSun, Oct 17 13:00 ET | WAS -6 | 54 | KC 31 at WAS 13WAS -6 closed · KC covered |
 LAC @  BALSun, Oct 17 13:00 ET | BAL +3 | 50.5 | LAC 6 at BAL 34BAL +3 closed · BAL covered |
 LA @  NYGSun, Oct 17 13:00 ET | NYG -7.5 | 49.5 | LA 38 at NYG 11NYG -7.5 closed · LA covered |
 LV @  DENSun, Oct 17 16:25 ET | DEN +5 | 45.5 | LV 34 at DEN 24DEN +5 closed · LV covered |
 MIA @  JAXSun, Oct 17 09:30 ET | JAX -2.5 | 47.5 | MIA 20 at JAX 23JAX -2.5 closed · JAX covered |
 MIN @  CARSun, Oct 17 13:00 ET | CAR -2.5 | 45.5 | MIN 34 at CAR 28CAR -2.5 closed · MIN covered |
 SEA @  PITSun, Oct 17 20:20 ET | PIT +5.5 | 43 | SEA 20 at PIT 23PIT +5.5 closed · SEA covered |
 BUF @  TENMon, Oct 18 20:15 ET | TEN -6 | 53.5 | BUF 31 at TEN 34TEN -6 closed · TEN covered |
The plays
A play is an angle with a prior record, staked by that record. The model's number alone is never a play.
The angle board mined, walk-forward record behind each
MIA @ JAC - model fades them by 3.0+, favorite, got blown out last week, worse QB 42-25 (63%)
- model fades them by 0.5+, favorite, got blown out last week, worse QB 59-38 (61%)
- model fades them by 1.0+, on the road, got blown out last week, bad QB 23-15 (60%)
- and 2 more angles on this side
SEA @ PIT - model fades them by 2.0+, less rest than the opponent, won last week, better coach 63-37 (63%)
- model fades them by 3.0+, less rest than the opponent, won last week, better coach 41-26 (61%)
- model fades them by 1.0+, less rest than the opponent, won last week, better coach 78-51 (60%)
- and 1 more angle on this side
BUF @ TEN - model likes them by 1.0+, underdog, blew someone out last week, elite QB 35-22 (61%)
LAC @ BAL TOTAL- over when home team off Monday night, road team travelled 1,500+ miles 40-22 (64%)
- over when high total (48+), home team off Monday night 48-29 (62%)
- over when windy, early season 50-32 (61%)
- and 4 more angles on this side
HOU @ IND TOTAL- over when early season, home team off Monday night 61-45 (57%)
- over when on turf, home team off Monday night 85-63 (57%)
- over when home team off Monday night 182-144 (56%)
ARI @ CLE TOTAL- over when windy, early season 50-32 (61%)
- over when early season, road team travelled 1,500+ miles 172-138 (56%)
TB @ PHI TOTAL- under when high total (48+), home team a big underdog 47-25 (65%)
MIA @ JAX TOTAL- over when early season, road team travelled 1,500+ miles 172-138 (56%)
- over when a new starting QB, early season 93-76 (55%)
DAL @ NE TOTAL- over when early season, road team travelled 1,500+ miles 172-138 (56%)
Read it straight. Five rules frozen 2026-08-28 before Week 1, git-timestamped, append-only. Flat 1u. Historical: the frozen card went 91-83, +6.8u over 2015-2025, 7 of 11 winning seasons; the weather family 362-334-11, +19.1u over 2010-2025. This season was replayed walk-forward: the angles were chosen on the seasons before it and fired on its games, so nothing here was scored on the games that found it. It is a replay, not a published record. 2026 is the first season we posted before kickoff.