Weekly Lines · 2021
Week 7.
13 games and 6 plays, replayed walk-forward on angles chosen from the seasons before 2021. Every number is open.
This week's plays: 3-3, -2.5u flat at -110. Season through week 7: 35-29, +0.6u flat at -110.
| Game | Market | Total | Final |
|---|---|---|---|
 DEN @  CLEThu, Oct 21 20:20 ET | CLE +2 | 40.5 | DEN 14 at CLE 17CLE +2 closed · CLE covered |
 ATL @  MIASun, Oct 24 13:00 ET | MIA -1.5 | 48.5 | ATL 30 at MIA 28MIA -1.5 closed · ATL covered |
 CAR @  NYGSun, Oct 24 13:00 ET | NYG -3 | 42.5 | CAR 3 at NYG 25NYG -3 closed · NYG covered |
 CHI @  TBSun, Oct 24 16:25 ET | TB +12.5 | 47 | CHI 3 at TB 38TB +12.5 closed · TB covered |
 CIN @  BALSun, Oct 24 13:00 ET | BAL +6.5 | 45.5 | CIN 41 at BAL 17BAL +6.5 closed · CIN covered |
 DET @  LASun, Oct 24 16:05 ET | LA +17 | 51 | DET 19 at LA 28LA +17 closed · DET covered |
 HOU @  ARISun, Oct 24 16:25 ET | ARI +20.5 | 47 | HOU 5 at ARI 31ARI +20.5 closed · ARI covered |
 IND @  SFSun, Oct 24 20:20 ET | SF +3.5 | 41.5 | IND 30 at SF 18SF +3.5 closed · IND covered |
 KC @  TENSun, Oct 24 13:00 ET | TEN -4 | 57.5 | KC 3 at TEN 27TEN -4 closed · TEN covered |
 NYJ @  NESun, Oct 24 13:00 ET | NE +7 | 43 | NYJ 13 at NE 54NE +7 closed · NE covered |
 PHI @  LVSun, Oct 24 16:05 ET | LV +1 | 48 | PHI 22 at LV 33LV +1 closed · LV covered |
 WAS @  GBSun, Oct 24 13:00 ET | GB +8.5 | 48 | WAS 10 at GB 24GB +8.5 closed · GB covered |
 NO @  SEAMon, Oct 25 20:15 ET | SEA -6 | 42 | NO 13 at SEA 10SEA -6 closed · SEA covered |
The plays
A play is an angle with a prior record, staked by that record. The model's number alone is never a play.
The angle board mined, walk-forward record behind each
HOU @ ARI - model fades them by 3.0+, big favorite (7+), blew someone out last week, in a dome 17-7 (71%)
- model fades them by 2.0+, big favorite (7+), blew someone out last week, in a dome 23-10 (70%)
- model fades them by 3.0+, favorite, blew someone out last week, in a dome 34-17 (67%)
- and 9 more angles on this side
IND @ SF - model likes them by 1.0+, on the road, blew someone out last week, bad QB 20-13 (61%)
- model likes them by 0.5+, on the road, less rest than the opponent, blew someone out last week 26-17 (60%)
NYJ @ NE - model fades them by 3.0+, at home, lost last week, division game 95-59 (62%)
- model fades them by 3.0+, big favorite (7+), division game, on turf 52-33 (61%)
- model fades them by 3.0+, less rest than the opponent, division game, on turf 23-15 (60%)
- and 2 more angles on this side
KC @ TEN TOTAL- over when rain in the forecast, home team off Monday night 27-13 (68%)
- over when high total (48+), home team off Monday night 48-29 (62%)
- over when a team looking ahead to a division game, home team off Monday night 103-79 (57%)
- and 1 more angle on this side
NO @ SEA TOTAL- under when rain in the forecast, a new starting QB 98-71 (58%)
DEN @ CLE TOTAL- under when rain in the forecast, a new starting QB 98-71 (58%)
Read it straight. Five rules frozen 2026-08-28 before Week 1, git-timestamped, append-only. Flat 1u. Historical: the frozen card went 91-83, +6.8u over 2015-2025, 7 of 11 winning seasons; the weather family 362-334-11, +19.1u over 2010-2025. This season was replayed walk-forward: the angles were chosen on the seasons before it and fired on its games, so nothing here was scored on the games that found it. It is a replay, not a published record. 2026 is the first season we posted before kickoff.