Weekly Lines · 2021
Week 18.
16 games and 9 plays, replayed walk-forward on angles chosen from the seasons before 2021. Every number is open.
This week's plays: 5-4, -0.7u flat at -110. Season through week 18: 81-75, -4.0u flat at -110.
| Game | Market | Total | Final |
|---|---|---|---|
 DAL @  PHISat, Jan 8 20:15 ET | PHI -6.5 | 46 | DAL 51 at PHI 26PHI -6.5 closed · DAL covered |
 KC @  DENSat, Jan 8 16:30 ET | DEN -11.5 | 44.5 | KC 28 at DEN 24DEN -11.5 closed · DEN covered |
 CAR @  TBSun, Jan 9 16:25 ET | TB +11 | 43 | CAR 17 at TB 41TB +11 closed · TB covered |
 CHI @  MINSun, Jan 9 13:00 ET | MIN +3.5 | 45.5 | CHI 17 at MIN 31MIN +3.5 closed · MIN covered |
 CIN @  CLESun, Jan 9 13:00 ET | CLE +6.5 | 38 | CIN 16 at CLE 21CLE +6.5 closed · CIN covered |
 GB @  DETSun, Jan 9 13:00 ET | DET -4 | 45 | GB 30 at DET 37DET -4 closed · DET covered |
 IND @  JAXSun, Jan 9 13:00 ET | JAX -14 | 43 | IND 11 at JAX 26JAX -14 closed · JAX covered |
 LAC @  LVSun, Jan 9 20:20 ET | LV -3.5 | 48 | LAC 32 at LV 35LV -3.5 closed · LV covered |
 NE @  MIASun, Jan 9 16:25 ET | MIA -6 | 41 | NE 24 at MIA 33MIA -6 closed · MIA covered |
 NO @  ATLSun, Jan 9 16:25 ET | ATL -4.5 | 40 | NO 30 at ATL 20ATL -4.5 closed · NO covered |
 NYJ @  BUFSun, Jan 9 16:25 ET | BUF +16 | 43 | NYJ 10 at BUF 27BUF +16 closed · BUF covered |
 PIT @  BALSun, Jan 9 13:00 ET | BAL +3 | 41 | PIT 16 at BAL 13BAL +3 closed · PIT covered |
 SEA @  ARISun, Jan 9 16:25 ET | ARI +5.5 | 48 | SEA 38 at ARI 30ARI +5.5 closed · SEA covered |
 SF @  LASun, Jan 9 16:25 ET | LA +3 | 46.5 | SF 27 at LA 24LA +3 closed · SF covered |
 TEN @  HOUSun, Jan 9 13:00 ET | HOU -10.5 | 43 | TEN 28 at HOU 25HOU -10.5 closed · HOU covered |
 WAS @  NYGSun, Jan 9 13:00 ET | NYG -6 | 36 | WAS 22 at NYG 7NYG -6 closed · WAS covered |
The plays
A play is an angle with a prior record, staked by that record. The model's number alone is never a play.
The angle board mined, walk-forward record behind each
CAR @ TB - model fades them by 1.0+, big underdog (7+), lost last week, bad QB 17-7 (71%)
- model fades them by 0.5+, big underdog (7+), lost last week, bad QB 21-9 (70%)
- model fades them by 1.0+, big underdog (7+), worse QB, bad QB 22-14 (61%)
- and 1 more angle on this side
GB @ DET - model fades them by 2.0+, got blown out last week, worse record, in a dome 35-18 (66%)
- model fades them by 2.0+, got blown out last week, division game, in a dome 33-18 (65%)
- model fades them by 1.0+, got blown out last week, worse record, in a dome 41-24 (63%)
- and 1 more angle on this side
IND @ JAC - model fades them by 3.0+, big favorite (7+), better coach, division game 77-48 (62%)
- model fades them by 2.0+, better record, bad QB, division game 24-15 (62%)
- model fades them by 1.0+, better record, bad QB, division game 34-22 (61%)
NE @ MIA - model fades them by 1.0+, on the road, blew someone out last week, low total (41 or under) 36-22 (62%)
- model fades them by 0.5+, on the road, blew someone out last week, low total (41 or under) 41-27 (60%)
NO @ ATL - model fades them by 3.0+, better coach, division game, in a dome 45-24 (65%)
- model fades them by 3.0+, better QB, better coach, in a dome 55-30 (65%)
- model fades them by 1.0+, better coach, in a dome, low total (41 or under) 35-20 (64%)
- and 16 more angles on this side
SEA @ ARI - model fades them by 1.0+, underdog, blew someone out last week, better coach 17-9 (65%)
- model fades them by 0.5+, underdog, blew someone out last week, better coach 22-12 (65%)
- model fades them by 2.0+, blew someone out last week, worse record, high total (48+) 16-10 (62%)
- and 2 more angles on this side
NYJ @ BUF TOTAL- under when rain in the forecast, division game 129-105 (55%)
NE @ MIA TOTAL- under when rain in the forecast, division game 129-105 (55%)
NO @ ATL TOTAL- over when in a dome, low total (41 or under) 96-62 (61%)
- over when on turf, low total (41 or under) 196-153 (56%)
Read it straight. Five rules frozen 2026-08-28 before Week 1, git-timestamped, append-only. Flat 1u. Historical: the frozen card went 91-83, +6.8u over 2015-2025, 7 of 11 winning seasons; the weather family 362-334-11, +19.1u over 2010-2025. This season was replayed walk-forward: the angles were chosen on the seasons before it and fired on its games, so nothing here was scored on the games that found it. It is a replay, not a published record. 2026 is the first season we posted before kickoff.