Weekly Lines · 2021
Week 12.
15 games and 7 plays, replayed walk-forward on angles chosen from the seasons before 2021. Every number is open.
This week's plays: 3-4, -2.6u flat at -110. Season through week 12: 56-49, -2.9u flat at -110.
| Game | Market | Total | Final |
|---|---|---|---|
 BUF @  NOThu, Nov 25 20:20 ET | NO -7 | 45 | BUF 31 at NO 6NO -7 closed · BUF covered |
 CHI @  DETThu, Nov 25 12:30 ET | DET -2 | 41.5 | CHI 16 at DET 14DET -2 closed · push |
 LV @  DALThu, Nov 25 16:30 ET | DAL +7 | 51 | LV 36 at DAL 33DAL +7 closed · LV covered |
 ATL @  JAXSun, Nov 28 13:00 ET | JAX -1.5 | 46 | ATL 21 at JAX 14JAX -1.5 closed · ATL covered |
 CAR @  MIASun, Nov 28 13:00 ET | MIA -1 | 41 | CAR 10 at MIA 33MIA -1 closed · MIA covered |
 CLE @  BALSun, Nov 28 20:20 ET | BAL +3 | 47 | CLE 10 at BAL 16BAL +3 closed · BAL covered |
 LAC @  DENSun, Nov 28 16:05 ET | DEN -2.5 | 47.5 | LAC 13 at DEN 28DEN -2.5 closed · DEN covered |
 LA @  GBSun, Nov 28 16:25 ET | GB -2 | 47 | LA 28 at GB 36GB -2 closed · GB covered |
 MIN @  SFSun, Nov 28 16:25 ET | SF +3.5 | 49 | MIN 26 at SF 34SF +3.5 closed · SF covered |
 NYJ @  HOUSun, Nov 28 13:00 ET | HOU +3 | 44.5 | NYJ 21 at HOU 14HOU +3 closed · NYJ covered |
 PHI @  NYGSun, Nov 28 13:00 ET | NYG -4 | 45.5 | PHI 7 at NYG 13NYG -4 closed · NYG covered |
 PIT @  CINSun, Nov 28 13:00 ET | CIN +3.5 | 43.5 | PIT 10 at CIN 41CIN +3.5 closed · CIN covered |
 TB @  INDSun, Nov 28 13:00 ET | IND -3 | 53 | TB 38 at IND 31IND -3 closed · TB covered |
 TEN @  NESun, Nov 28 13:00 ET | NE +7.5 | 43 | TEN 13 at NE 36NE +7.5 closed · NE covered |
 SEA @  WASMon, Nov 29 20:15 ET | WAS -1 | 47 | SEA 15 at WAS 17WAS -1 closed · WAS covered |
The plays
A play is an angle with a prior record, staked by that record. The model's number alone is never a play.
The angle board mined, walk-forward record behind each
ATL @ JAC - model fades them by 3.0+, favorite, more rest than the opponent, got blown out last week 26-13 (67%)
- model fades them by 3.0+, favorite, got blown out last week, worse QB 42-25 (63%)
- model fades them by 0.5+, favorite, more rest than the opponent, got blown out last week 35-22 (61%)
- and 4 more angles on this side
LV @ DAL - model fades them by 3.0+, big favorite (7+), in a dome, high total (48+) 18-8 (69%)
- model fades them by 3.0+, big favorite (7+), on turf, high total (48+) 30-16 (65%)
- model fades them by 3.0+, at home, lost last week, in a dome 58-33 (64%)
- and 7 more angles on this side
LAC @ DEN - model fades them by 2.0+, less rest than the opponent, won last week, better coach 63-37 (63%)
- model fades them by 1.0+, less rest than the opponent, won last week, better coach 78-51 (60%)
- model fades them by 2.0+, less rest than the opponent, won last week, division game 44-29 (60%)
TEN @ NE - model likes them by 0.5+, on the road, less rest than the opponent, elite QB 36-18 (67%)
- model likes them by 2.0+, big underdog (7+), elite QB, on turf 21-11 (66%)
- model likes them by 1.0+, on the road, less rest than the opponent, elite QB 32-17 (65%)
- and 10 more angles on this side
PHI @ NYG TOTAL- over when on turf, home team off Monday night 85-63 (57%)
- over when home team off Monday night 182-144 (56%)
LA @ GB TOTAL- over when under 40 degrees, line inside 3 75-60 (56%)
TB @ IND TOTAL- under when high total (48+), road team off Monday night 26-16 (62%)
Read it straight. Five rules frozen 2026-08-28 before Week 1, git-timestamped, append-only. Flat 1u. Historical: the frozen card went 91-83, +6.8u over 2015-2025, 7 of 11 winning seasons; the weather family 362-334-11, +19.1u over 2010-2025. This season was replayed walk-forward: the angles were chosen on the seasons before it and fired on its games, so nothing here was scored on the games that found it. It is a replay, not a published record. 2026 is the first season we posted before kickoff.