Weekly Lines · 2021
Week 13.
14 games and 4 plays, replayed walk-forward on angles chosen from the seasons before 2021. Every number is open.
This week's plays: 2-2, -1.3u flat at -110. Season through week 13: 58-51, -4.2u flat at -110.
| Game | Market | Total | Final |
|---|---|---|---|
 DAL @  NOThu, Dec 2 20:20 ET | NO -6 | 46 | DAL 27 at NO 17NO -6 closed · DAL covered |
 ARI @  CHISun, Dec 5 13:00 ET | CHI -7.5 | 43.5 | ARI 33 at CHI 22CHI -7.5 closed · ARI covered |
 BAL @  PITSun, Dec 5 16:25 ET | PIT -4 | 44 | BAL 19 at PIT 20PIT -4 closed · PIT covered |
 DEN @  KCSun, Dec 5 20:20 ET | KC +8.5 | 46.5 | DEN 9 at KC 22KC +8.5 closed · KC covered |
 IND @  HOUSun, Dec 5 13:00 ET | HOU -10 | 45.5 | IND 31 at HOU 0HOU -10 closed · IND covered |
 JAX @  LASun, Dec 5 16:05 ET | LA +14 | 48 | JAX 7 at LA 37LA +14 closed · LA covered |
 LAC @  CINSun, Dec 5 13:00 ET | CIN +2.5 | 49.5 | LAC 41 at CIN 22CIN +2.5 closed · LAC covered |
 MIN @  DETSun, Dec 5 13:00 ET | DET -7 | 47.5 | MIN 27 at DET 29DET -7 closed · DET covered |
 NYG @  MIASun, Dec 5 13:00 ET | MIA +6.5 | 40 | NYG 9 at MIA 20MIA +6.5 closed · MIA covered |
 PHI @  NYJSun, Dec 5 13:00 ET | NYJ -5 | 44 | PHI 33 at NYJ 18NYJ -5 closed · PHI covered |
 SF @  SEASun, Dec 5 16:25 ET | SEA -3 | 44.5 | SF 23 at SEA 30SEA -3 closed · SEA covered |
 TB @  ATLSun, Dec 5 13:00 ET | ATL -11 | 51 | TB 30 at ATL 17ATL -11 closed · TB covered |
 WAS @  LVSun, Dec 5 16:05 ET | LV +1 | 47.5 | WAS 17 at LV 15LV +1 closed · WAS covered |
 NE @  BUFMon, Dec 6 20:15 ET | BUF +3 | 40 | NE 14 at BUF 10BUF +3 closed · NE covered |
The plays
A play is an angle with a prior record, staked by that record. The model's number alone is never a play.
The angle board mined, walk-forward record behind each
DEN @ KC - model likes them by 1.0+, less rest than the opponent, blew someone out last week, division game 26-13 (67%)
- model likes them by 0.5+, less rest than the opponent, blew someone out last week, division game 30-15 (67%)
- model likes them by 1.0+, blew someone out last week, worse record, division game 24-14 (63%)
- and 5 more angles on this side
SF @ SEA TOTAL- over when on turf, home team off Monday night 85-63 (57%)
- over when late season, home team off Monday night 57-45 (56%)
- over when home team off Monday night 182-144 (56%)
ARI @ CHI TOTAL- under when rain in the forecast, a new starting QB 98-71 (58%)
TB @ ATL TOTAL- under when high total (48+), home team a big underdog 47-25 (65%)
Read it straight. Five rules frozen 2026-08-28 before Week 1, git-timestamped, append-only. Flat 1u. Historical: the frozen card went 91-83, +6.8u over 2015-2025, 7 of 11 winning seasons; the weather family 362-334-11, +19.1u over 2010-2025. This season was replayed walk-forward: the angles were chosen on the seasons before it and fired on its games, so nothing here was scored on the games that found it. It is a replay, not a published record. 2026 is the first season we posted before kickoff.