Weekly Lines · 2021
Week 4.
16 games and 8 plays, replayed walk-forward on angles chosen from the seasons before 2021. Every number is open.
This week's plays: 5-3, +0.6u flat at -110. Season through week 4: 20-19, -0.1u flat at -110.
| Game | Market | Total | Final |
|---|---|---|---|
 JAX @  CINThu, Sep 30 20:20 ET | CIN +7.5 | 46 | JAX 21 at CIN 24CIN +7.5 closed · JAX covered |
 ARI @  LASun, Oct 3 16:05 ET | LA +3.5 | 53.5 | ARI 37 at LA 20LA +3.5 closed · ARI covered |
 BAL @  DENSun, Oct 3 16:25 ET | DEN +1 | 44 | BAL 23 at DEN 7DEN +1 closed · BAL covered |
 CAR @  DALSun, Oct 3 13:00 ET | DAL +4.5 | 51.5 | CAR 28 at DAL 36DAL +4.5 closed · DAL covered |
 CLE @  MINSun, Oct 3 13:00 ET | MIN -1 | 52 | CLE 14 at MIN 7MIN -1 closed · CLE covered |
 DET @  CHISun, Oct 3 13:00 ET | CHI +3 | 42 | DET 14 at CHI 24CHI +3 closed · CHI covered |
 HOU @  BUFSun, Oct 3 13:00 ET | BUF +19 | 47.5 | HOU 0 at BUF 40BUF +19 closed · BUF covered |
 IND @  MIASun, Oct 3 13:00 ET | MIA +2.5 | 41.5 | IND 27 at MIA 17MIA +2.5 closed · IND covered |
 KC @  PHISun, Oct 3 13:00 ET | PHI -7.5 | 53.5 | KC 42 at PHI 30PHI -7.5 closed · KC covered |
 NYG @  NOSun, Oct 3 13:00 ET | NO +7.5 | 43 | NYG 27 at NO 21NO +7.5 closed · NYG covered |
 PIT @  GBSun, Oct 3 16:25 ET | GB +6.5 | 45 | PIT 17 at GB 27GB +6.5 closed · GB covered |
 SEA @  SFSun, Oct 3 16:05 ET | SF +2.5 | 52 | SEA 28 at SF 21SF +2.5 closed · SEA covered |
 TB @  NESun, Oct 3 20:20 ET | NE -6 | 49.5 | TB 19 at NE 17NE -6 closed · NE covered |
 TEN @  NYJSun, Oct 3 13:00 ET | NYJ -5.5 | 44.5 | TEN 24 at NYJ 27NYJ -5.5 closed · NYJ covered |
 WAS @  ATLSun, Oct 3 13:00 ET | ATL -1 | 47.5 | WAS 34 at ATL 30ATL -1 closed · WAS covered |
 LV @  LACMon, Oct 4 20:15 ET | LAC +3 | 52 | LV 14 at LAC 28LAC +3 closed · LAC covered |
The plays
A play is an angle with a prior record, staked by that record. The model's number alone is never a play.
The angle board mined, walk-forward record behind each
ARI @ LAR - model likes them by 1.0+, on the road, better QB, division game 144-94 (60%)
HOU @ BUF - model fades them by 2.0+, less rest than the opponent, blew someone out last week, on turf 25-13 (66%)
- model fades them by 3.0+, less rest than the opponent, better coach, on turf 33-18 (65%)
- model fades them by 3.0+, less rest than the opponent, blew someone out last week, on turf 16-9 (64%)
- and 17 more angles on this side
KC @ PHI - model fades them by 3.0+, big favorite (7+), more rest than the opponent, better coach 27-16 (63%)
- model fades them by 3.0+, big favorite (7+), better coach, high total (48+) 36-22 (62%)
- model fades them by 3.0+, big favorite (7+), on the road, elite QB 51-33 (61%)
- and 1 more angle on this side
TB @ NE - model fades them by 2.0+, better QB, on turf, high total (48+) 57-37 (61%)
- model fades them by 2.0+, on the road, better QB, on turf 107-71 (60%)
TEN @ NYJ - model fades them by 2.0+, on the road, better QB, on turf 107-71 (60%)
CAR @ DAL TOTAL- over when high total (48+), home team off Monday night 48-29 (62%)
- over when early season, home team off Monday night 61-45 (57%)
- over when on turf, home team off Monday night 85-63 (57%)
- and 3 more angles on this side
IND @ MIA TOTAL- over when windy, early season 50-32 (61%)
- over when a new starting QB, early season 93-76 (55%)
BAL @ DEN TOTAL- over when early season, road team travelled 1,500+ miles 172-138 (56%)
Read it straight. Five rules frozen 2026-08-28 before Week 1, git-timestamped, append-only. Flat 1u. Historical: the frozen card went 91-83, +6.8u over 2015-2025, 7 of 11 winning seasons; the weather family 362-334-11, +19.1u over 2010-2025. This season was replayed walk-forward: the angles were chosen on the seasons before it and fired on its games, so nothing here was scored on the games that found it. It is a replay, not a published record. 2026 is the first season we posted before kickoff.