Weekly Lines · 2021
Week 16.
16 games and 7 plays, replayed walk-forward on angles chosen from the seasons before 2021. Every number is open.
This week's plays: 2-5, -3.5u flat at -110. Season through week 16: 71-65, -2.7u flat at -110.
| Game | Market | Total | Final |
|---|---|---|---|
 SF @  TENThu, Dec 23 20:20 ET | TEN -3.5 | 45.5 | SF 17 at TEN 20TEN -3.5 closed · TEN covered |
 CLE @  GBSat, Dec 25 16:30 ET | GB +7.5 | 46.5 | CLE 22 at GB 24GB +7.5 closed · CLE covered |
 IND @  ARISat, Dec 25 20:15 ET | ARI +3 | 48 | IND 22 at ARI 16ARI +3 closed · IND covered |
 BAL @  CINSun, Dec 26 13:00 ET | CIN +7.5 | 43 | BAL 21 at CIN 41CIN +7.5 closed · CIN covered |
 BUF @  NESun, Dec 26 13:00 ET | NE +1 | 43.5 | BUF 33 at NE 21NE +1 closed · BUF covered |
 CHI @  SEASun, Dec 26 16:05 ET | SEA +7 | 41 | CHI 25 at SEA 24SEA +7 closed · CHI covered |
 DEN @  LVSun, Dec 26 16:25 ET | LV -1 | 42 | DEN 13 at LV 17LV -1 closed · LV covered |
 DET @  ATLSun, Dec 26 13:00 ET | ATL +7.5 | 42.5 | DET 16 at ATL 20ATL +7.5 closed · DET covered |
 JAX @  NYJSun, Dec 26 13:00 ET | NYJ +2.5 | 42.5 | JAX 21 at NYJ 26NYJ +2.5 closed · NYJ covered |
 LAC @  HOUSun, Dec 26 13:00 ET | HOU -13.5 | 46 | LAC 29 at HOU 41HOU -13.5 closed · HOU covered |
 LA @  MINSun, Dec 26 13:00 ET | MIN -3.5 | 48.5 | LA 30 at MIN 23MIN -3.5 closed · LA covered |
 NYG @  PHISun, Dec 26 13:00 ET | PHI +11 | 41 | NYG 10 at PHI 34PHI +11 closed · PHI covered |
 PIT @  KCSun, Dec 26 16:25 ET | KC +10.5 | 44 | PIT 10 at KC 36KC +10.5 closed · KC covered |
 TB @  CARSun, Dec 26 13:00 ET | CAR -11.5 | 44.5 | TB 32 at CAR 6CAR -11.5 closed · TB covered |
 WAS @  DALSun, Dec 26 20:20 ET | DAL +10.5 | 45.5 | WAS 14 at DAL 56DAL +10.5 closed · DAL covered |
 MIA @  NOMon, Dec 27 20:15 ET | NO -3 | 37.5 | MIA 20 at NO 3NO -3 closed · MIA covered |
The plays
A play is an angle with a prior record, staked by that record. The model's number alone is never a play.
The angle board mined, walk-forward record behind each
BUF @ NE - model likes them by 1.0+, blew someone out last week, worse record, division game 24-14 (63%)
- model likes them by 1.0+, on the road, elite QB, division game 84-49 (63%)
- model likes them by 1.0+, underdog, blew someone out last week, elite QB 35-22 (61%)
- and 5 more angles on this side
BAL @ CIN - model fades them by 3.0+, big favorite (7+), division game, on turf 52-33 (61%)
- model fades them by 3.0+, favorite, at home, division game 148-97 (60%)
CLE @ GB - model fades them by 0.5+, lost last week, worse QB, elite QB 13-8 (62%)
MIA @ NO - model likes them by 3.0+, won last week, in a dome, low total (41 or under) 19-11 (63%)
DEN @ LV TOTAL- over when in a dome, home team off Monday night 47-35 (57%)
- over when a team looking ahead to a division game, home team off Monday night 103-79 (57%)
- over when late season, home team off Monday night 57-45 (56%)
- and 1 more angle on this side
LA @ MIN TOTAL- over when home team off Monday night, road team travelled 1,500+ miles 40-22 (64%)
- over when high total (48+), home team off Monday night 48-29 (62%)
- over when on turf, home team off Monday night 85-63 (57%)
- and 4 more angles on this side
MIA @ NO TOTAL- over when in a dome, low total (41 or under) 96-62 (61%)
- over when on turf, low total (41 or under) 196-153 (56%)
Read it straight. Five rules frozen 2026-08-28 before Week 1, git-timestamped, append-only. Flat 1u. Historical: the frozen card went 91-83, +6.8u over 2015-2025, 7 of 11 winning seasons; the weather family 362-334-11, +19.1u over 2010-2025. This season was replayed walk-forward: the angles were chosen on the seasons before it and fired on its games, so nothing here was scored on the games that found it. It is a replay, not a published record. 2026 is the first season we posted before kickoff.