Weekly Lines · 2021
Week 14.
14 games and 9 plays, replayed walk-forward on angles chosen from the seasons before 2021. Every number is open.
This week's plays: 5-4, +1.5u flat at -110. Season through week 14: 63-55, -2.7u flat at -110.
| Game | Market | Total | Final |
|---|---|---|---|
 PIT @  MINThu, Dec 9 20:20 ET | MIN +3.5 | 45 | PIT 28 at MIN 36MIN +3.5 closed · MIN covered |
 ATL @  CARSun, Dec 12 13:00 ET | CAR +2.5 | 41 | ATL 29 at CAR 21CAR +2.5 closed · ATL covered |
 BAL @  CLESun, Dec 12 13:00 ET | CLE +3 | 44 | BAL 22 at CLE 24CLE +3 closed · BAL covered |
 BUF @  TBSun, Dec 12 16:25 ET | TB +3.5 | 52.5 | BUF 27 at TB 33TB +3.5 closed · TB covered |
 CHI @  GBSun, Dec 12 20:20 ET | GB +11.5 | 43 | CHI 30 at GB 45GB +11.5 closed · GB covered |
 DAL @  WASSun, Dec 12 13:00 ET | WAS -6.5 | 48 | DAL 27 at WAS 20WAS -6.5 closed · DAL covered |
 DET @  DENSun, Dec 12 16:05 ET | DEN +13 | 42 | DET 10 at DEN 38DEN +13 closed · DEN covered |
 JAX @  TENSun, Dec 12 13:00 ET | TEN +8.5 | 44.5 | JAX 0 at TEN 20TEN +8.5 closed · TEN covered |
 LV @  KCSun, Dec 12 13:00 ET | KC +10 | 48 | LV 9 at KC 48KC +10 closed · KC covered |
 NO @  NYJSun, Dec 12 13:00 ET | NYJ -4.5 | 42 | NO 30 at NYJ 9NYJ -4.5 closed · NO covered |
 NYG @  LACSun, Dec 12 16:05 ET | LAC +9.5 | 44 | NYG 21 at LAC 37LAC +9.5 closed · LAC covered |
 SEA @  HOUSun, Dec 12 13:00 ET | HOU -10 | 40.5 | SEA 33 at HOU 13HOU -10 closed · SEA covered |
 SF @  CINSun, Dec 12 16:25 ET | CIN -2.5 | 49 | SF 26 at CIN 23CIN -2.5 closed · SF covered |
 LA @  ARIMon, Dec 13 20:15 ET | ARI +3 | 51 | LA 30 at ARI 23ARI +3 closed · LA covered |
The plays
A play is an angle with a prior record, staked by that record. The model's number alone is never a play.
The angle board mined, walk-forward record behind each
LV @ KC - model fades them by 3.0+, at home, better coach, division game 82-45 (65%)
- model fades them by 3.0+, at home, elite QB, division game 38-21 (64%)
- model fades them by 3.0+, big favorite (7+), better coach, high total (48+) 36-22 (62%)
- and 4 more angles on this side
LAR @ ARI - model fades them by 1.0+, underdog, blew someone out last week, better coach 17-9 (65%)
- model fades them by 0.5+, underdog, blew someone out last week, better coach 22-12 (65%)
- model fades them by 2.0+, blew someone out last week, worse record, high total (48+) 16-10 (62%)
- and 2 more angles on this side
NYG @ LAC - model fades them by 1.0+, big underdog (7+), lost last week, bad QB 17-7 (71%)
- model fades them by 0.5+, big underdog (7+), lost last week, bad QB 21-9 (70%)
- model fades them by 1.0+, big underdog (7+), worse QB, bad QB 22-14 (61%)
- and 1 more angle on this side
BUF @ TB - model likes them by 0.5+, favorite, more rest than the opponent, won last week 73-48 (60%)
- model likes them by 2.0+, favorite, more rest than the opponent, high total (48+) 15-10 (60%)
- model likes them by 2.0+, at home, more rest than the opponent, elite QB 24-16 (60%)
ATL @ CAR TOTAL- under when rain in the forecast, a new starting QB 98-71 (58%)
- under when rain in the forecast, division game 129-105 (55%)
DAL @ WAS TOTAL- under when rain in the forecast, division game 129-105 (55%)
NO @ NYJ TOTAL- under when rain in the forecast, a new starting QB 98-71 (58%)
SEA @ HOU TOTAL- over when on turf, low total (41 or under) 196-153 (56%)
BUF @ TB TOTAL- under when high total (48+), road team off Monday night 26-16 (62%)
Read it straight. Five rules frozen 2026-08-28 before Week 1, git-timestamped, append-only. Flat 1u. Historical: the frozen card went 91-83, +6.8u over 2015-2025, 7 of 11 winning seasons; the weather family 362-334-11, +19.1u over 2010-2025. This season was replayed walk-forward: the angles were chosen on the seasons before it and fired on its games, so nothing here was scored on the games that found it. It is a replay, not a published record. 2026 is the first season we posted before kickoff.