Weekly Lines · 2021
Week 10.
14 games and 6 plays, replayed walk-forward on angles chosen from the seasons before 2021. Every number is open.
This week's plays: 3-3, -1.4u flat at -110. Season through week 10: 49-40, +1.4u flat at -110.
| Game | Market | Total | Final |
|---|---|---|---|
 BAL @  MIAThu, Nov 11 20:20 ET | MIA -8.5 | 46.5 | BAL 10 at MIA 22MIA -8.5 closed · MIA covered |
 ATL @  DALSun, Nov 14 13:00 ET | DAL +8 | 55 | ATL 3 at DAL 43DAL +8 closed · DAL covered |
 BUF @  NYJSun, Nov 14 13:00 ET | NYJ -13 | 47 | BUF 45 at NYJ 17NYJ -13 closed · BUF covered |
 CAR @  ARISun, Nov 14 16:05 ET | ARI +7 | 42 | CAR 34 at ARI 10ARI +7 closed · CAR covered |
 CLE @  NESun, Nov 14 13:00 ET | NE +2.5 | 45.5 | CLE 7 at NE 45NE +2.5 closed · NE covered |
 DET @  PITSun, Nov 14 13:00 ET | PIT +9 | 43 | DET 16 at PIT 16PIT +9 closed · DET covered |
 JAX @  INDSun, Nov 14 13:00 ET | IND +10.5 | 47.5 | JAX 17 at IND 23IND +10.5 closed · JAX covered |
 KC @  LVSun, Nov 14 20:20 ET | LV -2.5 | 53.5 | KC 41 at LV 14LV -2.5 closed · KC covered |
 MIN @  LACSun, Nov 14 16:05 ET | LAC +3 | 53.5 | MIN 27 at LAC 20LAC +3 closed · MIN covered |
 NO @  TENSun, Nov 14 13:00 ET | TEN +3 | 44 | NO 21 at TEN 23TEN +3 closed · NO covered |
 PHI @  DENSun, Nov 14 16:25 ET | DEN +1 | 44.5 | PHI 30 at DEN 13DEN +1 closed · PHI covered |
 SEA @  GBSun, Nov 14 16:25 ET | GB +3 | 49.5 | SEA 0 at GB 17GB +3 closed · GB covered |
 TB @  WASSun, Nov 14 13:00 ET | WAS -10 | 51 | TB 19 at WAS 29WAS -10 closed · WAS covered |
 LA @  SFMon, Nov 15 20:15 ET | SF -3.5 | 50 | LA 10 at SF 31SF -3.5 closed · SF covered |
The plays
A play is an angle with a prior record, staked by that record. The model's number alone is never a play.
The angle board mined, walk-forward record behind each
CLE @ NE - model likes them by 1.0+, underdog, blew someone out last week, elite QB 35-22 (61%)
- model likes them by 3.0+, blew someone out last week, elite QB, better coach 27-17 (61%)
- model likes them by 3.0+, on the road, blew someone out last week, elite QB 24-16 (60%)
KC @ LV - model fades them by 0.5+, elite QB, division game, in a dome 52-26 (67%)
- model fades them by 1.0+, elite QB, division game, in a dome 41-23 (64%)
DET @ PIT - model fades them by 2.0+, less rest than the opponent, won last week, better coach 63-37 (63%)
- model fades them by 3.0+, less rest than the opponent, won last week, better coach 41-26 (61%)
- model fades them by 1.0+, less rest than the opponent, won last week, better coach 78-51 (60%)
- and 1 more angle on this side
BAL @ MIA TOTAL- under when rain in the forecast, a new starting QB 98-71 (58%)
SEA @ GB TOTAL- over when under 40 degrees, line inside 3 75-60 (56%)
TB @ WAS TOTAL- under when high total (48+), home team a big underdog 47-25 (65%)
Read it straight. Five rules frozen 2026-08-28 before Week 1, git-timestamped, append-only. Flat 1u. Historical: the frozen card went 91-83, +6.8u over 2015-2025, 7 of 11 winning seasons; the weather family 362-334-11, +19.1u over 2010-2025. This season was replayed walk-forward: the angles were chosen on the seasons before it and fired on its games, so nothing here was scored on the games that found it. It is a replay, not a published record. 2026 is the first season we posted before kickoff.