Weekly Lines · 2021
Week 8.
15 games and 11 plays, replayed walk-forward on angles chosen from the seasons before 2021. Every number is open.
This week's plays: 6-5, +0.5u flat at -110. Season through week 8: 41-34, +1.1u flat at -110.
| Game | Market | Total | Final |
|---|---|---|---|
 GB @  ARIThu, Oct 28 20:20 ET | ARI +6.5 | 51 | GB 24 at ARI 21ARI +6.5 closed · GB covered |
 CAR @  ATLSun, Oct 31 13:00 ET | ATL +2.5 | 47 | CAR 19 at ATL 13ATL +2.5 closed · CAR covered |
 CIN @  NYJSun, Oct 31 13:00 ET | NYJ -11.5 | 43.5 | CIN 31 at NYJ 34NYJ -11.5 closed · NYJ covered |
 DAL @  MINSun, Oct 31 20:20 ET | MIN +4.5 | 49.5 | DAL 20 at MIN 16MIN +4.5 closed · DAL covered |
 JAX @  SEASun, Oct 31 16:05 ET | SEA +4 | 44 | JAX 7 at SEA 31SEA +4 closed · SEA covered |
 LA @  HOUSun, Oct 31 13:00 ET | HOU -17 | 47 | LA 38 at HOU 22HOU -17 closed · HOU covered |
 MIA @  BUFSun, Oct 31 13:00 ET | BUF +15 | 48.5 | MIA 11 at BUF 26BUF +15 closed · push |
 NE @  LACSun, Oct 31 16:05 ET | LAC +3.5 | 50.5 | NE 27 at LAC 24LAC +3.5 closed · NE covered |
 PHI @  DETSun, Oct 31 13:00 ET | DET -3 | 48.5 | PHI 44 at DET 6DET -3 closed · PHI covered |
 PIT @  CLESun, Oct 31 13:00 ET | CLE +5.5 | 43 | PIT 15 at CLE 10CLE +5.5 closed · PIT covered |
 SF @  CHISun, Oct 31 13:00 ET | CHI -4.5 | 40 | SF 33 at CHI 22CHI -4.5 closed · SF covered |
 TB @  NOSun, Oct 31 16:25 ET | NO -4 | 48.5 | TB 27 at NO 36NO -4 closed · NO covered |
 TEN @  INDSun, Oct 31 13:00 ET | IND +3 | 51 | TEN 34 at IND 31IND +3 closed · TEN covered |
 WAS @  DENSun, Oct 31 16:25 ET | DEN +4 | 45 | WAS 10 at DEN 17DEN +4 closed · DEN covered |
 NYG @  KCMon, Nov 1 20:15 ET | KC +10.5 | 53 | NYG 17 at KC 20KC +10.5 closed · NYG covered |
The plays
A play is an angle with a prior record, staked by that record. The model's number alone is never a play.
The angle board mined, walk-forward record behind each
PIT @ CLE LOSS CLE -5.5 1.0u
- model likes them by 0.5+, less rest than the opponent, better record, elite QB 46-29 (61%)
- model likes them by 0.5+, less rest than the opponent, won last week, elite QB 58-37 (61%)
GB @ ARI WIN GB +6.5 1.0u
- model likes them by 1.0+, underdog, blew someone out last week, elite QB 35-22 (61%)
- model likes them by 3.0+, blew someone out last week, elite QB, better coach 27-17 (61%)
- model likes them by 3.0+, blew someone out last week, better coach, high total (48+) 17-11 (61%)
- and 2 more angles on this side
DAL @ MIN WIN MIN -4.5 1.0u
- model fades them by 1.0+, worse record, better QB, in a dome 55-32 (63%)
- model fades them by 1.0+, worse record, better coach, in a dome 65-40 (62%)
- model fades them by 2.0+, worse record, better QB, in a dome 42-26 (62%)
- and 5 more angles on this side
NYG @ KC WIN NYG +10.5 1.0u
- model likes them by 1.0+, on the road, blew someone out last week, bad QB 20-13 (61%)
TB @ NO LOSS TB -4 1.0u
- model likes them by 1.0+, on the road, elite QB, division game 84-49 (63%)
- model likes them by 0.5+, favorite, more rest than the opponent, division game 41-25 (62%)
- model likes them by 0.5+, on the road, elite QB, division game 91-58 (61%)
- and 7 more angles on this side
WAS @ DEN WIN WAS +4 1.0u
- model fades them by 0.5+, underdog, less rest than the opponent, better coach 38-23 (62%)
- model fades them by 1.0+, underdog, less rest than the opponent, better coach 30-19 (61%)
- model fades them by 1.0+, on the road, less rest than the opponent, worse record 36-24 (60%)
TB @ NO TOTALWIN Over 48.5 1.0u
- over when high total (48+), home team off Monday night 48-29 (62%)
- over when on turf, home team off Monday night 85-63 (57%)
- over when in a dome, home team off Monday night 47-35 (57%)
- and 2 more angles on this side
JAX @ SEA TOTALLOSS Over 44.0 1.0u
- over when home team off Monday night, road team travelled 1,500+ miles 40-22 (64%)
- over when on turf, home team off Monday night 85-63 (57%)
- over when home team off Monday night 182-144 (56%)
MIA @ BUF TOTALLOSS Over 48.5 1.0u
- over when high total (48+), home team off Monday night 48-29 (62%)
- over when on turf, home team off Monday night 85-63 (57%)
- over when home team off Monday night 182-144 (56%)
PIT @ CLE TOTALWIN Under 43.0 1.0u
- under when rain in the forecast, division game 129-105 (55%)
CIN @ NYJ TOTALLOSS Under 43.5 1.0u
- under when rain in the forecast, a new starting QB 98-71 (58%)
Read it straight. Five rules frozen 2026-08-28 before Week 1, git-timestamped, append-only. Flat 1u. Historical: the frozen card went 91-83, +6.8u over 2015-2025, 7 of 11 winning seasons; the weather family 362-334-11, +19.1u over 2010-2025. This season was replayed walk-forward: the angles were chosen on the seasons before it and fired on its games, so nothing here was scored on the games that found it. It is a replay, not a published record. 2026 is the first season we posted before kickoff.