Weekly Lines · 2021
Week 2.
16 games and 12 plays, replayed walk-forward on angles chosen from the seasons before 2021. Every number is open.
This week's plays: 5-7, -2.7u flat at -110. Season through week 2: 11-12, -1.2u flat at -110.
| Game | Market | Total | Final |
|---|---|---|---|
 NYG @  WASThu, Sep 16 20:20 ET | WAS +4 | 42 | NYG 29 at WAS 30WAS +4 closed · NYG covered |
 ATL @  TBSun, Sep 19 16:05 ET | TB +13.5 | 52 | ATL 25 at TB 48TB +13.5 closed · TB covered |
 BUF @  MIASun, Sep 19 13:00 ET | MIA -3.5 | 48 | BUF 35 at MIA 0MIA -3.5 closed · BUF covered |
 CIN @  CHISun, Sep 19 13:00 ET | CHI +2 | 44.5 | CIN 17 at CHI 20CHI +2 closed · CHI covered |
 DAL @  LACSun, Sep 19 16:25 ET | LAC +3 | 55 | DAL 20 at LAC 17LAC +3 closed · DAL covered |
 DEN @  JAXSun, Sep 19 13:00 ET | JAX -6 | 45 | DEN 23 at JAX 13JAX -6 closed · DEN covered |
 HOU @  CLESun, Sep 19 13:00 ET | CLE +13.5 | 48.5 | HOU 21 at CLE 31CLE +13.5 closed · HOU covered |
 KC @  BALSun, Sep 19 20:20 ET | BAL -3.5 | 53.5 | KC 35 at BAL 36BAL -3.5 closed · BAL covered |
 LA @  INDSun, Sep 19 13:00 ET | IND -4 | 48 | LA 27 at IND 24IND -4 closed · IND covered |
 LV @  PITSun, Sep 19 13:00 ET | PIT +5.5 | 46.5 | LV 26 at PIT 17PIT +5.5 closed · LV covered |
 MIN @  ARISun, Sep 19 16:05 ET | ARI +4 | 51 | MIN 33 at ARI 34ARI +4 closed · MIN covered |
 NE @  NYJSun, Sep 19 13:00 ET | NYJ -5.5 | 43 | NE 25 at NYJ 6NYJ -5.5 closed · NE covered |
 NO @  CARSun, Sep 19 13:00 ET | CAR -3 | 45 | NO 7 at CAR 26CAR -3 closed · CAR covered |
 SF @  PHISun, Sep 19 13:00 ET | PHI -3 | 49 | SF 17 at PHI 11PHI -3 closed · SF covered |
 TEN @  SEASun, Sep 19 16:25 ET | SEA +6.5 | 53.5 | TEN 33 at SEA 30SEA +6.5 closed · TEN covered |
 DET @  GBMon, Sep 20 20:15 ET | GB +11.5 | 49.5 | DET 17 at GB 35GB +11.5 closed · GB covered |
The plays
A play is an angle with a prior record, staked by that record. The model's number alone is never a play.
The angle board mined, walk-forward record behind each
HOU @ CLE - model fades them by 3.0+, big favorite (7+), better coach, high total (48+) 36-22 (62%)
DET @ GB - model fades them by 3.0+, at home, better coach, division game 82-45 (65%)
- model fades them by 3.0+, at home, elite QB, division game 38-21 (64%)
- model fades them by 3.0+, big favorite (7+), got blown out last week, elite QB 14-8 (64%)
- and 7 more angles on this side
NYG @ WAS - model fades them by 0.5+, on the road, got blown out last week, bad QB 27-18 (60%)
SF @ PHI - model likes them by 3.0+, blew someone out last week, better coach, high total (48+) 17-11 (61%)
KC @ BAL TOTAL- over when high total (48+), home team off Monday night 48-29 (62%)
- over when early season, home team off Monday night 61-45 (57%)
- over when a team looking ahead to a division game, home team off Monday night 103-79 (57%)
- and 1 more angle on this side
ATL @ TB TOTAL- under when rain in the forecast, division game 129-105 (55%)
BUF @ MIA TOTAL- under when rain in the forecast, division game 129-105 (55%)
NYG @ WAS TOTAL- under when rain in the forecast, division game 129-105 (55%)
TEN @ SEA TOTAL- over when early season, road team travelled 1,500+ miles 172-138 (56%)
LA @ IND TOTAL- over when early season, road team travelled 1,500+ miles 172-138 (56%)
SF @ PHI TOTAL- over when early season, road team travelled 1,500+ miles 172-138 (56%)
LV @ PIT TOTAL- over when early season, road team travelled 1,500+ miles 172-138 (56%)
Read it straight. Five rules frozen 2026-08-28 before Week 1, git-timestamped, append-only. Flat 1u. Historical: the frozen card went 91-83, +6.8u over 2015-2025, 7 of 11 winning seasons; the weather family 362-334-11, +19.1u over 2010-2025. This season was replayed walk-forward: the angles were chosen on the seasons before it and fired on its games, so nothing here was scored on the games that found it. It is a replay, not a published record. 2026 is the first season we posted before kickoff.