Weekly Lines · 2022
Week 1.
16 games and 11 plays, replayed walk-forward on angles chosen from the seasons before 2022. Every number is open.
This week's plays: 5-6, -2.7u flat at -110. Season through week 1: 5-6, -2.7u flat at -110.
| Game | Market | Total | Final |
|---|---|---|---|
 BUF @  LAThu, Sep 8 20:20 ET | LA -1 | 51.5 | BUF 31 at LA 10LA -1 closed · BUF covered |
 BAL @  NYJSun, Sep 11 13:00 ET | NYJ -6.5 | 44 | BAL 24 at NYJ 9NYJ -6.5 closed · BAL covered |
 CLE @  CARSun, Sep 11 13:00 ET | CAR +2.5 | 42.5 | CLE 26 at CAR 24CAR +2.5 closed · CLE covered |
 GB @  MINSun, Sep 11 16:25 ET | MIN +2.5 | 47 | GB 7 at MIN 23MIN +2.5 closed · MIN covered |
 IND @  HOUSun, Sep 11 13:00 ET | HOU -7 | 46 | IND 20 at HOU 20HOU -7 closed · HOU covered |
 JAX @  WASSun, Sep 11 13:00 ET | WAS +3 | 43.5 | JAX 22 at WAS 28WAS +3 closed · WAS covered |
 KC @  ARISun, Sep 11 16:25 ET | ARI -6 | 54 | KC 44 at ARI 21ARI -6 closed · KC covered |
 LV @  LACSun, Sep 11 16:25 ET | LAC +3.5 | 52.5 | LV 19 at LAC 24LAC +3.5 closed · LAC covered |
 NE @  MIASun, Sep 11 13:00 ET | MIA +3 | 47 | NE 7 at MIA 20MIA +3 closed · MIA covered |
 NO @  ATLSun, Sep 11 13:00 ET | ATL -6 | 43.5 | NO 27 at ATL 26ATL -6 closed · ATL covered |
 NYG @  TENSun, Sep 11 16:25 ET | TEN +5.5 | 43.5 | NYG 21 at TEN 20TEN +5.5 closed · NYG covered |
 PHI @  DETSun, Sep 11 13:00 ET | DET -6 | 49 | PHI 38 at DET 35DET -6 closed · DET covered |
 PIT @  CINSun, Sep 11 13:00 ET | CIN +7.5 | 44.5 | PIT 23 at CIN 20CIN +7.5 closed · PIT covered |
 SF @  CHISun, Sep 11 13:00 ET | CHI -6.5 | 38 | SF 10 at CHI 19CHI -6.5 closed · CHI covered |
 TB @  DALSun, Sep 11 20:20 ET | DAL -2.5 | 49.5 | TB 19 at DAL 3DAL -2.5 closed · TB covered |
 DEN @  SEAMon, Sep 12 20:15 ET | SEA -6 | 44 | DEN 16 at SEA 17SEA -6 closed · SEA covered |
The plays
A play is an angle with a prior record, staked by that record. The model's number alone is never a play.
The angle board mined, walk-forward record behind each
GB @ MIN - model likes them by 3.0+, on the road, elite QB, division game 44-26 (63%)
- model likes them by 1.0+, on the road, elite QB, division game 89-53 (63%)
- model likes them by 2.0+, on the road, elite QB, division game 57-36 (61%)
- and 1 more angle on this side
KC @ ARI - model fades them by 3.0+, better QB, in a dome, high total (48+) 29-14 (67%)
- model fades them by 3.0+, better QB, better coach, in a dome 56-33 (63%)
- model fades them by 2.0+, on the road, elite QB, in a dome 54-36 (60%)
NE @ MIA - model likes them by 3.0+, on the road, elite QB, division game 44-26 (63%)
- model likes them by 1.0+, on the road, elite QB, division game 89-53 (63%)
- model likes them by 2.0+, on the road, elite QB, division game 57-36 (61%)
- and 1 more angle on this side
NO @ ATL - model fades them by 3.0+, better coach, division game, in a dome 45-28 (62%)
SF @ CHI - model fades them by 2.0+, favorite, better coach, low total (41 or under) 147-93 (61%)
- model fades them by 2.0+, better coach, low total (41 or under) 177-117 (60%)
TB @ DAL - model fades them by 2.0+, on the road, elite QB, in a dome 54-36 (60%)
PIT @ CIN TOTAL- under when rain in the forecast, division game 141-111 (56%)
NE @ MIA TOTAL- under when rain in the forecast, division game 141-111 (56%)
KC @ ARI TOTAL- over when high total (48+), home team off Monday night 53-34 (61%)
SF @ CHI TOTAL- over when low total (41 or under), early season 214-171 (56%)
- over when early season, road team travelled 1,500+ miles 185-150 (55%)
BUF @ LA TOTAL- over when early season, road team travelled 1,500+ miles 185-150 (55%)
Read it straight. Five rules frozen 2026-08-28 before Week 1, git-timestamped, append-only. Flat 1u. Historical: the frozen card went 91-83, +6.8u over 2015-2025, 7 of 11 winning seasons; the weather family 362-334-11, +19.1u over 2010-2025. This season was replayed walk-forward: the angles were chosen on the seasons before it and fired on its games, so nothing here was scored on the games that found it. It is a replay, not a published record. 2026 is the first season we posted before kickoff.