Weekly Lines · 2022
Week 2.
16 games and 8 plays, replayed walk-forward on angles chosen from the seasons before 2022. Every number is open.
This week's plays: 3-5, -3.6u flat at -110. Season through week 2: 8-11, -6.3u flat at -110.
| Game | Market | Total | Final |
|---|---|---|---|
 LAC @  KCThu, Sep 15 20:15 ET | KC +4 | 52.5 | LAC 24 at KC 27KC +4 closed · LAC covered |
 ARI @  LVSun, Sep 18 16:25 ET | LV +5.5 | 51.5 | ARI 29 at LV 23LV +5.5 closed · ARI covered |
 ATL @  LASun, Sep 18 16:05 ET | LA +10.5 | 46.5 | ATL 27 at LA 31LA +10.5 closed · ATL covered |
 CAR @  NYGSun, Sep 18 13:00 ET | NYG -1 | 44 | CAR 16 at NYG 19NYG -1 closed · NYG covered |
 CHI @  GBSun, Sep 18 20:20 ET | GB +10.5 | 42 | CHI 10 at GB 27GB +10.5 closed · GB covered |
 CIN @  DALSun, Sep 18 16:25 ET | DAL -7.5 | 42 | CIN 17 at DAL 20DAL -7.5 closed · DAL covered |
 HOU @  DENSun, Sep 18 16:25 ET | DEN +10.5 | 46 | HOU 9 at DEN 16DEN +10.5 closed · HOU covered |
 IND @  JAXSun, Sep 18 13:00 ET | JAX -3 | 43.5 | IND 0 at JAX 24JAX -3 closed · JAX covered |
 MIA @  BALSun, Sep 18 13:00 ET | BAL +3 | 44 | MIA 42 at BAL 38BAL +3 closed · MIA covered |
 NE @  PITSun, Sep 18 13:00 ET | PIT -3 | 40 | NE 17 at PIT 14PIT -3 closed · push |
 NYJ @  CLESun, Sep 18 13:00 ET | CLE +6.5 | 38.5 | NYJ 31 at CLE 30CLE +6.5 closed · NYJ covered |
 SEA @  SFSun, Sep 18 16:05 ET | SF +8.5 | 40 | SEA 7 at SF 27SF +8.5 closed · SF covered |
 TB @  NOSun, Sep 18 13:00 ET | NO -2.5 | 44 | TB 20 at NO 10NO -2.5 closed · TB covered |
 WAS @  DETSun, Sep 18 13:00 ET | DET -1 | 48.5 | WAS 27 at DET 36DET -1 closed · DET covered |
 MIN @  PHIMon, Sep 19 20:30 ET | PHI +2.5 | 49.5 | MIN 7 at PHI 24PHI +2.5 closed · PHI covered |
 TEN @  BUFMon, Sep 19 19:15 ET | BUF +10 | 47.5 | TEN 7 at BUF 41BUF +10 closed · BUF covered |
The plays
A play is an angle with a prior record, staked by that record. The model's number alone is never a play.
The angle board mined, walk-forward record behind each
CHI @ GB - model fades them by 2.0+, big favorite (7+), worse record, elite QB 13-7 (65%)
- model fades them by 3.0+, at home, better coach, division game 84-53 (61%)
- model fades them by 3.0+, at home, lost last week, division game 100-64 (61%)
- and 3 more angles on this side
LAC @ KC - model likes them by 3.0+, blew someone out last week, elite QB, high total (48+) 28-17 (62%)
- model likes them by 3.0+, blew someone out last week, elite QB, better coach 30-19 (61%)
- model likes them by 3.0+, blew someone out last week, better coach, high total (48+) 20-13 (61%)
- and 1 more angle on this side
MIN @ PHI - model likes them by 3.0+, blew someone out last week, better coach, high total (48+) 20-13 (61%)
- model likes them by 3.0+, blew someone out last week, better QB, high total (48+) 27-18 (60%)
- model likes them by 3.0+, on the road, blew someone out last week, high total (48+) 15-10 (60%)
TB @ NO - model fades them by 0.5+, elite QB, division game, in a dome 55-30 (65%)
- model fades them by 2.0+, favorite, blew someone out last week, in a dome 55-31 (64%)
- model fades them by 1.0+, elite QB, division game, in a dome 43-26 (62%)
- and 4 more angles on this side
IND @ JAX TOTAL- under when rain in the forecast, division game 141-111 (56%)
NYJ @ CLE TOTAL- over when low total (41 or under), early season 214-171 (56%)
NE @ PIT TOTAL- over when low total (41 or under), early season 214-171 (56%)
ATL @ LA TOTAL- over when early season, road team travelled 1,500+ miles 185-150 (55%)
Read it straight. Five rules frozen 2026-08-28 before Week 1, git-timestamped, append-only. Flat 1u. Historical: the frozen card went 91-83, +6.8u over 2015-2025, 7 of 11 winning seasons; the weather family 362-334-11, +19.1u over 2010-2025. This season was replayed walk-forward: the angles were chosen on the seasons before it and fired on its games, so nothing here was scored on the games that found it. It is a replay, not a published record. 2026 is the first season we posted before kickoff.