Weekly Lines · 2022
Week 13.
15 games and 6 plays, replayed walk-forward on angles chosen from the seasons before 2022. Every number is open.
This week's plays: 6-0, +6.0u flat at -110. Season through week 13: 68-54, +11.0u flat at -110.
| Game | Market | Total | Final |
|---|---|---|---|
 BUF @  NEThu, Dec 1 20:15 ET | NE -3.5 | 43.5 | BUF 24 at NE 10NE -3.5 closed · BUF covered |
 CLE @  HOUSun, Dec 4 13:00 ET | HOU -7.5 | 47 | CLE 27 at HOU 14HOU -7.5 closed · CLE covered |
 DEN @  BALSun, Dec 4 13:00 ET | BAL +9.5 | 40.5 | DEN 9 at BAL 10BAL +9.5 closed · DEN covered |
 GB @  CHISun, Dec 4 13:00 ET | CHI -4 | 45 | GB 28 at CHI 19CHI -4 closed · GB covered |
 IND @  DALSun, Dec 4 20:20 ET | DAL +11 | 44.5 | IND 19 at DAL 54DAL +11 closed · DAL covered |
 JAX @  DETSun, Dec 4 13:00 ET | DET +1 | 51.5 | JAX 14 at DET 40DET +1 closed · DET covered |
 KC @  CINSun, Dec 4 16:25 ET | CIN -2.5 | 53 | KC 24 at CIN 27CIN -2.5 closed · CIN covered |
 LAC @  LVSun, Dec 4 16:25 ET | LV +2.5 | 49 | LAC 20 at LV 27LV +2.5 closed · LV covered |
 MIA @  SFSun, Dec 4 16:05 ET | SF +4.5 | 46 | MIA 17 at SF 33SF +4.5 closed · SF covered |
 NYJ @  MINSun, Dec 4 13:00 ET | MIN +3 | 44 | NYJ 22 at MIN 27MIN +3 closed · MIN covered |
 PIT @  ATLSun, Dec 4 13:00 ET | ATL -1 | 43 | PIT 19 at ATL 16ATL -1 closed · PIT covered |
 SEA @  LASun, Dec 4 16:05 ET | LA -7 | 41 | SEA 27 at LA 23LA -7 closed · LA covered |
 TEN @  PHISun, Dec 4 13:00 ET | PHI +5 | 44.5 | TEN 10 at PHI 35PHI +5 closed · PHI covered |
 WAS @  NYGSun, Dec 4 13:00 ET | NYG -2.5 | 40 | WAS 20 at NYG 20NYG -2.5 closed · NYG covered |
 NO @  TBMon, Dec 5 20:15 ET | TB +3.5 | 41 | NO 16 at TB 17TB +3.5 closed · NO covered |
The plays
A play is an angle with a prior record, staked by that record. The model's number alone is never a play.
The angle board mined, walk-forward record behind each
KC @ CIN - model likes them by 1.0+, worse record, elite QB, on turf 74-47 (61%)
MIA @ SF - model fades them by 0.5+, underdog, better record, better QB 22-14 (61%)
BUF @ NE - model fades them by 0.5+, at home, worse QB, elite QB 14-8 (64%)
- model fades them by 1.0+, lost last week, worse QB, elite QB 13-8 (62%)
- model fades them by 1.0+, at home, worse QB, elite QB 12-8 (60%)
BUF @ NE TOTAL- under when rain in the forecast, division game 141-111 (56%)
SEA @ LA TOTAL- over when in a dome, low total (41 or under) 98-64 (60%)
- over when on turf, low total (41 or under) 200-157 (56%)
MIA @ SF TOTAL- over when under 40 degrees, road team travelled 1,500+ miles 32-26 (55%)
Read it straight. Five rules frozen 2026-08-28 before Week 1, git-timestamped, append-only. Flat 1u. Historical: the frozen card went 91-83, +6.8u over 2015-2025, 7 of 11 winning seasons; the weather family 362-334-11, +19.1u over 2010-2025. This season was replayed walk-forward: the angles were chosen on the seasons before it and fired on its games, so nothing here was scored on the games that found it. It is a replay, not a published record. 2026 is the first season we posted before kickoff.