Weekly Lines · 2022
Week 17.
15 games and 13 plays, replayed walk-forward on angles chosen from the seasons before 2022. Every number is open.
This week's plays: 9-4, +8.6u flat at -110. Season through week 17: 88-76, +7.3u flat at -110.
| Game | Market | Total | Final |
|---|---|---|---|
 DAL @  TENThu, Dec 29 20:15 ET | TEN -14 | 41 | DAL 27 at TEN 13TEN -14 closed · push |
 ARI @  ATLSun, Jan 1 13:00 ET | ATL +7 | 41 | ARI 19 at ATL 20ATL +7 closed · ARI covered |
 CAR @  TBSun, Jan 1 13:00 ET | TB +3.5 | 40.5 | CAR 24 at TB 30TB +3.5 closed · TB covered |
 CHI @  DETSun, Jan 1 13:00 ET | DET +4.5 | 52.5 | CHI 10 at DET 41DET +4.5 closed · DET covered |
 CLE @  WASSun, Jan 1 13:00 ET | WAS +1 | 41.5 | CLE 24 at WAS 10WAS +1 closed · CLE covered |
 DEN @  KCSun, Jan 1 13:00 ET | KC +13.5 | 46 | DEN 24 at KC 27KC +13.5 closed · DEN covered |
 IND @  NYGSun, Jan 1 13:00 ET | NYG +5.5 | 38.5 | IND 10 at NYG 38NYG +5.5 closed · NYG covered |
 JAX @  HOUSun, Jan 1 13:00 ET | HOU -3.5 | 43 | JAX 31 at HOU 3HOU -3.5 closed · JAX covered |
 LA @  LACSun, Jan 1 16:25 ET | LAC +6.5 | 41.5 | LA 10 at LAC 31LAC +6.5 closed · LAC covered |
 MIA @  NESun, Jan 1 13:00 ET | NE +3 | 41.5 | MIA 21 at NE 23NE +3 closed · MIA covered |
 MIN @  GBSun, Jan 1 16:25 ET | GB +3 | 47.5 | MIN 17 at GB 41GB +3 closed · GB covered |
 NO @  PHISun, Jan 1 13:00 ET | PHI +5.5 | 41.5 | NO 20 at PHI 10PHI +5.5 closed · NO covered |
 NYJ @  SEASun, Jan 1 16:05 ET | SEA -1 | 43 | NYJ 6 at SEA 23SEA -1 closed · SEA covered |
 PIT @  BALSun, Jan 1 20:20 ET | BAL +1 | 35.5 | PIT 16 at BAL 13BAL +1 closed · PIT covered |
 SF @  LVSun, Jan 1 16:05 ET | LV -10 | 41.5 | SF 37 at LV 34LV -10 closed · LV covered |
The plays
A play is an angle with a prior record, staked by that record. The model's number alone is never a play.
The angle board mined, walk-forward record behind each
ARI @ ATL WIN ARI +7 3.0u
- model likes them by 2.0+, big underdog (7+), less rest than the opponent, in a dome 14-6 (70%)
- model likes them by 0.5+, big underdog (7+), less rest than the opponent, in a dome 20-9 (69%)
- model likes them by 1.0+, big underdog (7+), less rest than the opponent, in a dome 20-9 (69%)
- and 3 more angles on this side
CHI @ DET WIN CHI +4.5 3.0u
- model fades them by 3.0+, got blown out last week, division game, in a dome 25-8 (76%)
- model fades them by 3.0+, got blown out last week, worse record, in a dome 27-10 (73%)
- model fades them by 3.0+, underdog, got blown out last week, in a dome 16-8 (67%)
- and 12 more angles on this side
MIA @ NE WIN MIA +3 1.0u
- model likes them by 0.5+, on the road, less rest than the opponent, division game 60-37 (62%)
NYJ @ SEA WIN NYJ -1 1.0u
- model fades them by 3.0+, favorite, more rest than the opponent, got blown out last week 27-15 (64%)
- model fades them by 0.5+, favorite, more rest than the opponent, got blown out last week 38-24 (61%)
PIT @ BAL LOSS PIT +1 1.0u
- model fades them by 3.0+, better coach, low total (41 or under) 130-84 (61%)
- model fades them by 2.0+, better coach, low total (41 or under) 177-117 (60%)
- model fades them by 2.0+, won last week, better coach, low total (41 or under) 77-51 (60%)
CAR @ TB WIN TB -3.5 1.0u
- model likes them by 0.5+, won last week, elite QB, low total (41 or under) 39-24 (62%)
- model likes them by 0.5+, less rest than the opponent, better record, elite QB 51-33 (61%)
- model likes them by 0.5+, less rest than the opponent, won last week, elite QB 61-40 (60%)
PIT @ BAL TOTALWIN Under 35.5 1.0u
- under when rain in the forecast, a new starting QB 113-76 (60%)
- under when rain in the forecast, division game 141-111 (56%)
MIA @ NE TOTALLOSS Under 41.5 1.0u
- under when rain in the forecast, a new starting QB 113-76 (60%)
- under when rain in the forecast, division game 141-111 (56%)
NO @ PHI TOTALWIN Under 41.5 1.0u
- under when rain in the forecast, a new starting QB 113-76 (60%)
CLE @ WAS TOTALWIN Under 41.5 1.0u
- under when rain in the forecast, a new starting QB 113-76 (60%)
DAL @ TEN TOTALWIN Under 41.0 1.0u
- under when rain in the forecast, a new starting QB 113-76 (60%)
ARI @ ATL TOTALLOSS Over 41.0 1.0u
- over when in a dome, low total (41 or under) 98-64 (60%)
- over when on turf, low total (41 or under) 200-157 (56%)
LA @ LAC TOTALLOSS Over 41.5 1.0u
- over when on turf, home team off Monday night 90-71 (56%)
Read it straight. Five rules frozen 2026-08-28 before Week 1, git-timestamped, append-only. Flat 1u. Historical: the frozen card went 91-83, +6.8u over 2015-2025, 7 of 11 winning seasons; the weather family 362-334-11, +19.1u over 2010-2025. This season was replayed walk-forward: the angles were chosen on the seasons before it and fired on its games, so nothing here was scored on the games that found it. It is a replay, not a published record. 2026 is the first season we posted before kickoff.