Weekly Lines · 2022
Week 3.
16 games and 14 plays, replayed walk-forward on angles chosen from the seasons before 2022. Every number is open.
This week's plays: 10-4, +6.5u flat at -110. Season through week 3: 18-15, +0.2u flat at -110.
| Game | Market | Total | Final |
|---|---|---|---|
 PIT @  CLEThu, Sep 22 20:15 ET | CLE +4.5 | 38 | PIT 17 at CLE 29CLE +4.5 closed · CLE covered |
 ATL @  SEASun, Sep 25 16:25 ET | SEA +1 | 43 | ATL 27 at SEA 23SEA +1 closed · ATL covered |
 BAL @  NESun, Sep 25 13:00 ET | NE -2.5 | 45.5 | BAL 37 at NE 26NE -2.5 closed · BAL covered |
 BUF @  MIASun, Sep 25 13:00 ET | MIA -4 | 54 | BUF 19 at MIA 21MIA -4 closed · MIA covered |
 CIN @  NYJSun, Sep 25 13:00 ET | NYJ -6.5 | 46 | CIN 27 at NYJ 12NYJ -6.5 closed · CIN covered |
 DET @  MINSun, Sep 25 13:00 ET | MIN +6.5 | 52 | DET 24 at MIN 28MIN +6.5 closed · DET covered |
 GB @  TBSun, Sep 25 16:25 ET | TB +1 | 41.5 | GB 14 at TB 12TB +1 closed · GB covered |
 HOU @  CHISun, Sep 25 13:00 ET | CHI +3 | 40 | HOU 20 at CHI 23CHI +3 closed · push |
 JAX @  LACSun, Sep 25 16:05 ET | LAC +6.5 | 46 | JAX 38 at LAC 10LAC +6.5 closed · JAX covered |
 KC @  INDSun, Sep 25 13:00 ET | IND -4.5 | 51 | KC 17 at IND 20IND -4.5 closed · IND covered |
 LA @  ARISun, Sep 25 16:25 ET | ARI -3.5 | 49 | LA 20 at ARI 12ARI -3.5 closed · LA covered |
 LV @  TENSun, Sep 25 13:00 ET | TEN -1.5 | 45.5 | LV 22 at TEN 24TEN -1.5 closed · TEN covered |
 NO @  CARSun, Sep 25 13:00 ET | CAR -2 | 41 | NO 14 at CAR 22CAR -2 closed · CAR covered |
 PHI @  WASSun, Sep 25 13:00 ET | WAS -6 | 47 | PHI 24 at WAS 8WAS -6 closed · PHI covered |
 SF @  DENSun, Sep 25 20:20 ET | DEN -1 | 44 | SF 10 at DEN 11DEN -1 closed · DEN covered |
 DAL @  NYGMon, Sep 26 20:15 ET | NYG +1 | 38.5 | DAL 23 at NYG 16NYG +1 closed · DAL covered |
The plays
A play is an angle with a prior record, staked by that record. The model's number alone is never a play.
The angle board mined, walk-forward record behind each
BUF @ MIA WIN BUF -4 1.0u
- model fades them by 2.0+, less rest than the opponent, won last week, better coach 66-40 (62%)
- model fades them by 2.0+, on the road, blew someone out last week, better coach 82-52 (61%)
- model fades them by 1.0+, on the road, blew someone out last week, better coach 102-66 (61%)
- and 2 more angles on this side
LAR @ ARI LOSS LAR -3.5 2.0u
- model fades them by 3.0+, elite QB, division game, in a dome 24-12 (67%)
- model fades them by 0.5+, elite QB, division game, in a dome 55-30 (65%)
- model fades them by 1.0+, elite QB, division game, in a dome 43-26 (62%)
- and 4 more angles on this side
DET @ MIN WIN MIN -6.5 3.0u
- model fades them by 3.0+, got blown out last week, division game, in a dome 25-8 (76%)
- model fades them by 3.0+, better QB, in a dome, high total (48+) 29-14 (67%)
- model fades them by 3.0+, at home, got blown out last week, in a dome 23-12 (66%)
- and 9 more angles on this side
CIN @ NYJ LOSS NYJ +6.5 1.0u
- model likes them by 2.0+, better record, worse QB, on turf 57-38 (60%)
PHI @ WAS LOSS PHI -6 1.0u
- model fades them by 2.0+, less rest than the opponent, won last week, better coach 66-40 (62%)
- model fades them by 2.0+, on the road, blew someone out last week, better coach 82-52 (61%)
- model fades them by 1.0+, on the road, blew someone out last week, better coach 102-66 (61%)
- and 3 more angles on this side
BUF @ MIA TOTALWIN Under 54.0 1.0u
- under when rain in the forecast, division game 141-111 (56%)
PHI @ WAS TOTALWIN Under 47.0 1.0u
- under when rain in the forecast, division game 141-111 (56%)
DAL @ NYG TOTALWIN Over 38.5 1.0u
- over when on turf, low total (41 or under) 200-157 (56%)
- over when low total (41 or under), early season 214-171 (56%)
NO @ CAR TOTALLOSS Over 41.0 1.0u
- over when low total (41 or under), early season 214-171 (56%)
HOU @ CHI TOTALWIN Over 40.0 1.0u
- over when low total (41 or under), early season 214-171 (56%)
PIT @ CLE TOTALWIN Over 38.0 1.0u
- over when low total (41 or under), early season 214-171 (56%)
ATL @ SEA TOTALWIN Over 43.0 1.0u
- over when early season, road team travelled 1,500+ miles 185-150 (55%)
JAX @ LAC TOTALWIN Over 46.0 1.0u
- over when early season, road team travelled 1,500+ miles 185-150 (55%)
LV @ TEN TOTALWIN Over 45.5 1.0u
- over when home team off Monday night, road team travelled 1,500+ miles 42-26 (62%)
- over when early season, road team travelled 1,500+ miles 185-150 (55%)
Read it straight. Five rules frozen 2026-08-28 before Week 1, git-timestamped, append-only. Flat 1u. Historical: the frozen card went 91-83, +6.8u over 2015-2025, 7 of 11 winning seasons; the weather family 362-334-11, +19.1u over 2010-2025. This season was replayed walk-forward: the angles were chosen on the seasons before it and fired on its games, so nothing here was scored on the games that found it. It is a replay, not a published record. 2026 is the first season we posted before kickoff.