Weekly Lines · 2022
Week 10.
14 games and 5 plays, replayed walk-forward on angles chosen from the seasons before 2022. Every number is open.
This week's plays: 3-2, +0.8u flat at -110. Season through week 10: 50-45, -1.0u flat at -110.
| Game | Market | Total | Final |
|---|---|---|---|
 ATL @  CARThu, Nov 10 20:15 ET | CAR -2.5 | 41.5 | ATL 15 at CAR 25CAR -2.5 closed · CAR covered |
 ARI @  LASun, Nov 13 16:25 ET | LA +3.5 | 38 | ARI 27 at LA 17LA +3.5 closed · ARI covered |
 CLE @  MIASun, Nov 13 13:00 ET | MIA +3 | 49 | CLE 17 at MIA 39MIA +3 closed · MIA covered |
 DAL @  GBSun, Nov 13 16:25 ET | GB -3.5 | 44.5 | DAL 28 at GB 31GB -3.5 closed · GB covered |
 DEN @  TENSun, Nov 13 13:00 ET | TEN +2.5 | 40 | DEN 10 at TEN 17TEN +2.5 closed · TEN covered |
 DET @  CHISun, Nov 13 13:00 ET | CHI +3 | 48.5 | DET 31 at CHI 30CHI +3 closed · DET covered |
 HOU @  NYGSun, Nov 13 13:00 ET | NYG +5.5 | 41.5 | HOU 16 at NYG 24NYG +5.5 closed · NYG covered |
 IND @  LVSun, Nov 13 16:05 ET | LV +4.5 | 41 | IND 25 at LV 20LV +4.5 closed · IND covered |
 JAX @  KCSun, Nov 13 13:00 ET | KC +10 | 51.5 | JAX 17 at KC 27KC +10 closed · push |
 LAC @  SFSun, Nov 13 20:20 ET | SF +8.5 | 45.5 | LAC 16 at SF 22SF +8.5 closed · LAC covered |
 MIN @  BUFSun, Nov 13 13:00 ET | BUF +6.5 | 47 | MIN 33 at BUF 30BUF +6.5 closed · MIN covered |
 NO @  PITSun, Nov 13 13:00 ET | PIT +1 | 39.5 | NO 10 at PIT 20PIT +1 closed · PIT covered |
 SEA @  TBSun, Nov 13 09:30 ET | TB +2.5 | 45 | SEA 16 at TB 21TB +2.5 closed · TB covered |
 WAS @  PHIMon, Nov 14 20:15 ET | PHI +11 | 43 | WAS 32 at PHI 21PHI +11 closed · WAS covered |
The plays
A play is an angle with a prior record, staked by that record. The model's number alone is never a play.
The angle board mined, walk-forward record behind each
MIN @ BUF - model likes them by 1.0+, worse record, elite QB, on turf 74-47 (61%)
DAL @ GB - model fades them by 0.5+, underdog, less rest than the opponent, elite QB 12-8 (60%)
ATL @ CAR TOTAL- under when rain in the forecast, a new starting QB 113-76 (60%)
- under when rain in the forecast, division game 141-111 (56%)
ARI @ LA TOTAL- over when in a dome, low total (41 or under) 98-64 (60%)
- over when on turf, low total (41 or under) 200-157 (56%)
IND @ LV TOTAL- over when in a dome, low total (41 or under) 98-64 (60%)
Read it straight. Five rules frozen 2026-08-28 before Week 1, git-timestamped, append-only. Flat 1u. Historical: the frozen card went 91-83, +6.8u over 2015-2025, 7 of 11 winning seasons; the weather family 362-334-11, +19.1u over 2010-2025. This season was replayed walk-forward: the angles were chosen on the seasons before it and fired on its games, so nothing here was scored on the games that found it. It is a replay, not a published record. 2026 is the first season we posted before kickoff.