Weekly Lines · 2022
Week 18.
16 games and 13 plays, replayed walk-forward on angles chosen from the seasons before 2022. Every number is open.
This week's plays: 9-4, +5.4u flat at -110. Season through week 18: 97-80, +12.7u flat at -110.
| Game | Market | Total | Final |
|---|---|---|---|
 KC @  LVSat, Jan 7 16:30 ET | LV -9 | 51.5 | KC 31 at LV 13LV -9 closed · KC covered |
 TEN @  JAXSat, Jan 7 20:15 ET | JAX +6 | 39.5 | TEN 16 at JAX 20JAX +6 closed · TEN covered |
 ARI @  SFSun, Jan 8 16:25 ET | SF +14 | 40 | ARI 13 at SF 38SF +14 closed · SF covered |
 BAL @  CINSun, Jan 8 13:00 ET | CIN +11 | 39 | BAL 16 at CIN 27CIN +11 closed · push |
 CAR @  NOSun, Jan 8 13:00 ET | NO +3.5 | 41.5 | CAR 10 at NO 7NO +3.5 closed · CAR covered |
 CLE @  PITSun, Jan 8 13:00 ET | PIT +2.5 | 40 | CLE 14 at PIT 28PIT +2.5 closed · PIT covered |
 DAL @  WASSun, Jan 8 16:25 ET | WAS -7.5 | 40.5 | DAL 6 at WAS 26WAS -7.5 closed · WAS covered |
 DET @  GBSun, Jan 8 20:20 ET | GB +5.5 | 49 | DET 20 at GB 16GB +5.5 closed · DET covered |
 HOU @  INDSun, Jan 8 13:00 ET | IND +3 | 38 | HOU 32 at IND 31IND +3 closed · HOU covered |
 LAC @  DENSun, Jan 8 16:25 ET | DEN +6 | 38.5 | LAC 28 at DEN 31DEN +6 closed · LAC covered |
 LA @  SEASun, Jan 8 16:25 ET | SEA +5.5 | 41.5 | LA 16 at SEA 19SEA +5.5 closed · LA covered |
 MIN @  CHISun, Jan 8 13:00 ET | CHI -6.5 | 42.5 | MIN 29 at CHI 13CHI -6.5 closed · MIN covered |
 NE @  BUFSun, Jan 8 13:00 ET | BUF +8 | 44 | NE 23 at BUF 35BUF +8 closed · BUF covered |
 NYG @  PHISun, Jan 8 16:25 ET | PHI +16.5 | 42.5 | NYG 16 at PHI 22PHI +16.5 closed · NYG covered |
 NYJ @  MIASun, Jan 8 13:00 ET | MIA +3.5 | 37.5 | NYJ 6 at MIA 11MIA +3.5 closed · MIA covered |
 TB @  ATLSun, Jan 8 13:00 ET | ATL +6 | 40.5 | TB 17 at ATL 30ATL +6 closed · ATL covered |
The plays
A play is an angle with a prior record, staked by that record. The model's number alone is never a play.
The angle board mined, walk-forward record behind each
NE @ BUF WIN BUF -8 3.0u
- model likes them by 0.5+, less rest than the opponent, blew someone out last week, elite QB 26-11 (70%)
- model likes them by 1.0+, less rest than the opponent, blew someone out last week, elite QB 24-11 (69%)
- model likes them by 0.5+, less rest than the opponent, blew someone out last week, division game 30-16 (65%)
- and 11 more angles on this side
MIN @ CHI WIN CHI +6.5 1.0u
- model fades them by 3.0+, at home, got blown out last week, worse QB 43-26 (62%)
- model fades them by 3.0+, at home, lost last week, division game 100-64 (61%)
CLE @ PIT WIN CLE +2.5 2.0u
- model fades them by 0.5+, blew someone out last week, worse record, low total (41 or under) 22-11 (67%)
- model fades them by 0.5+, underdog, blew someone out last week, low total (41 or under) 15-9 (62%)
- model fades them by 0.5+, on the road, blew someone out last week, low total (41 or under) 43-28 (61%)
LAC @ DEN WIN DEN -6 1.0u
- model fades them by 3.0+, at home, lost last week, division game 100-64 (61%)
- model fades them by 2.0+, at home, better QB, low total (41 or under) 82-54 (60%)
HOU @ IND LOSS HOU +3 1.0u
- model fades them by 0.5+, worse record, in a dome, low total (41 or under) 36-23 (61%)
TEN @ JAC LOSS JAC -6 3.0u
- model likes them by 0.5+, blew someone out last week, bad QB, low total (41 or under) 16-6 (73%)
- model likes them by 1.0+, blew someone out last week, bad QB, low total (41 or under) 15-6 (71%)
- model likes them by 0.5+, less rest than the opponent, blew someone out last week, division game 30-16 (65%)
- and 2 more angles on this side
CAR @ NO LOSS NO -3.5 1.0u
- model likes them by 1.0+, better record, bad QB, on turf 20-12 (62%)
- model likes them by 1.0+, better record, bad QB, in a dome 15-9 (62%)
- model likes them by 0.5+, better record, bad QB, on turf 20-13 (61%)
- and 1 more angle on this side
LA @ SEA TOTALWIN Under 41.5 1.0u
- under when rain in the forecast, a new starting QB 113-76 (60%)
- under when rain in the forecast, division game 141-111 (56%)
ARI @ SF TOTALLOSS Under 40.0 1.0u
- under when rain in the forecast, a new starting QB 113-76 (60%)
- under when rain in the forecast, division game 141-111 (56%)
TB @ ATL TOTALWIN Over 40.5 1.0u
- over when in a dome, low total (41 or under) 98-64 (60%)
- over when on turf, low total (41 or under) 200-157 (56%)
HOU @ IND TOTALWIN Over 38.0 1.0u
- over when in a dome, low total (41 or under) 98-64 (60%)
- over when on turf, low total (41 or under) 200-157 (56%)
BAL @ CIN TOTALWIN Over 39.0 1.0u
- over when on turf, low total (41 or under) 200-157 (56%)
KC @ LV TOTALWIN Under 51.5 1.0u
- under when high total (48+), home team a big underdog 56-27 (68%)
Read it straight. Five rules frozen 2026-08-28 before Week 1, git-timestamped, append-only. Flat 1u. Historical: the frozen card went 91-83, +6.8u over 2015-2025, 7 of 11 winning seasons; the weather family 362-334-11, +19.1u over 2010-2025. This season was replayed walk-forward: the angles were chosen on the seasons before it and fired on its games, so nothing here was scored on the games that found it. It is a replay, not a published record. 2026 is the first season we posted before kickoff.