Weekly Lines · 2022
Week 6.
14 games and 12 plays, replayed walk-forward on angles chosen from the seasons before 2022. Every number is open.
This week's plays: 4-8, -4.8u flat at -110. Season through week 6: 35-34, -3.7u flat at -110.
| Game | Market | Total | Final |
|---|---|---|---|
 WAS @  CHIThu, Oct 13 20:15 ET | CHI -1 | 38.5 | WAS 12 at CHI 7CHI -1 closed · WAS covered |
 ARI @  SEASun, Oct 16 16:05 ET | SEA -2.5 | 50 | ARI 9 at SEA 19SEA -2.5 closed · SEA covered |
 BAL @  NYGSun, Oct 16 13:00 ET | NYG -5.5 | 46 | BAL 20 at NYG 24NYG -5.5 closed · NYG covered |
 BUF @  KCSun, Oct 16 16:25 ET | KC -2.5 | 54 | BUF 24 at KC 20KC -2.5 closed · BUF covered |
 CAR @  LASun, Oct 16 16:05 ET | LA +10 | 41.5 | CAR 10 at LA 24LA +10 closed · LA covered |
 CIN @  NOSun, Oct 16 13:00 ET | NO -3 | 42.5 | CIN 30 at NO 26NO -3 closed · CIN covered |
 DAL @  PHISun, Oct 16 20:20 ET | PHI +6.5 | 42.5 | DAL 17 at PHI 26PHI +6.5 closed · PHI covered |
 JAX @  INDSun, Oct 16 13:00 ET | IND +1 | 41 | JAX 27 at IND 34IND +1 closed · IND covered |
 MIN @  MIASun, Oct 16 13:00 ET | MIA -3 | 45 | MIN 24 at MIA 16MIA -3 closed · MIN covered |
 NE @  CLESun, Oct 16 13:00 ET | CLE +2.5 | 43 | NE 38 at CLE 15CLE +2.5 closed · NE covered |
 NYJ @  GBSun, Oct 16 13:00 ET | GB +7.5 | 44.5 | NYJ 27 at GB 10GB +7.5 closed · NYJ covered |
 SF @  ATLSun, Oct 16 13:00 ET | ATL -3.5 | 46 | SF 14 at ATL 28ATL -3.5 closed · ATL covered |
 TB @  PITSun, Oct 16 13:00 ET | PIT -10 | 47 | TB 18 at PIT 20PIT -10 closed · PIT covered |
 DEN @  LACMon, Oct 17 20:15 ET | LAC +3.5 | 45.5 | DEN 16 at LAC 19LAC +3.5 closed · DEN covered |
The plays
A play is an angle with a prior record, staked by that record. The model's number alone is never a play.
The angle board mined, walk-forward record behind each
BUF @ KC - model likes them by 0.5+, less rest than the opponent, elite QB, better coach 58-37 (61%)
- model likes them by 1.0+, less rest than the opponent, elite QB, better coach 52-34 (60%)
- model likes them by 0.5+, less rest than the opponent, won last week, elite QB 61-40 (60%)
DEN @ LAC - model fades them by 2.0+, at home, better record, worse QB 109-72 (60%)
CAR @ LAR - model fades them by 1.0+, big favorite (7+), elite QB, in a dome 59-36 (62%)
- model fades them by 0.5+, big favorite (7+), elite QB, in a dome 63-42 (60%)
MIN @ MIA - model likes them by 1.0+, underdog, got blown out last week, elite QB 42-25 (63%)
- model likes them by 1.0+, got blown out last week, worse record, elite QB 32-20 (62%)
- model likes them by 0.5+, underdog, got blown out last week, elite QB 42-27 (61%)
- and 1 more angle on this side
BAL @ NYG - model likes them by 2.0+, better record, worse QB, on turf 57-38 (60%)
SF @ ATL - model fades them by 1.0+, on the road, blew someone out last week, better coach 102-66 (61%)
- model fades them by 0.5+, on the road, blew someone out last week, better coach 113-75 (60%)
JAX @ IND TOTAL- over when on turf, low total (41 or under) 200-157 (56%)
- over when low total (41 or under), early season 214-171 (56%)
BUF @ KC TOTAL- over when high total (48+), home team off Monday night 53-34 (61%)
WAS @ CHI TOTAL- over when low total (41 or under), early season 214-171 (56%)
CAR @ LA TOTAL- over when early season, road team travelled 1,500+ miles 185-150 (55%)
SF @ ATL TOTAL- over when early season, road team travelled 1,500+ miles 185-150 (55%)
MIN @ MIA TOTAL- over when early season, road team travelled 1,500+ miles 185-150 (55%)
Read it straight. Five rules frozen 2026-08-28 before Week 1, git-timestamped, append-only. Flat 1u. Historical: the frozen card went 91-83, +6.8u over 2015-2025, 7 of 11 winning seasons; the weather family 362-334-11, +19.1u over 2010-2025. This season was replayed walk-forward: the angles were chosen on the seasons before it and fired on its games, so nothing here was scored on the games that found it. It is a replay, not a published record. 2026 is the first season we posted before kickoff.