Weekly Lines · 2022
Week 15.
16 games and 12 plays, replayed walk-forward on angles chosen from the seasons before 2022. Every number is open.
This week's plays: 3-9, -12.4u flat at -110. Season through week 15: 73-68, -4.9u flat at -110.
| Game | Market | Total | Final |
|---|---|---|---|
 SF @  SEAThu, Dec 15 20:15 ET | SEA -3 | 43 | SF 21 at SEA 13SEA -3 closed · SF covered |
 BAL @  CLESat, Dec 17 16:30 ET | CLE +2.5 | 39.5 | BAL 3 at CLE 13CLE +2.5 closed · CLE covered |
 IND @  MINSat, Dec 17 13:00 ET | MIN +3.5 | 46.5 | IND 36 at MIN 39MIN +3.5 closed · IND covered |
 MIA @  BUFSat, Dec 17 20:15 ET | BUF +7 | 44 | MIA 29 at BUF 32BUF +7 closed · MIA covered |
 ARI @  DENSun, Dec 18 16:05 ET | DEN +1.5 | 37.5 | ARI 15 at DEN 24DEN +1.5 closed · DEN covered |
 ATL @  NOSun, Dec 18 13:00 ET | NO +5 | 43.5 | ATL 18 at NO 21NO +5 closed · ATL covered |
 CIN @  TBSun, Dec 18 16:25 ET | TB -3.5 | 47 | CIN 34 at TB 23TB -3.5 closed · CIN covered |
 DAL @  JAXSun, Dec 18 13:00 ET | JAX -4 | 48.5 | DAL 34 at JAX 40JAX -4 closed · JAX covered |
 DET @  NYJSun, Dec 18 13:00 ET | NYJ +2 | 44 | DET 20 at NYJ 17NYJ +2 closed · DET covered |
 KC @  HOUSun, Dec 18 13:00 ET | HOU -14.5 | 48.5 | KC 30 at HOU 24HOU -14.5 closed · HOU covered |
 NE @  LVSun, Dec 18 16:05 ET | LV +1 | 45 | NE 24 at LV 30LV +1 closed · LV covered |
 NYG @  WASSun, Dec 18 20:20 ET | WAS +4.5 | 40.5 | NYG 20 at WAS 12WAS +4.5 closed · NYG covered |
 PHI @  CHISun, Dec 18 13:00 ET | CHI -8.5 | 48 | PHI 25 at CHI 20CHI -8.5 closed · CHI covered |
 PIT @  CARSun, Dec 18 13:00 ET | CAR +2.5 | 36.5 | PIT 24 at CAR 16CAR +2.5 closed · PIT covered |
 TEN @  LACSun, Dec 18 16:25 ET | LAC +3 | 46.5 | TEN 14 at LAC 17LAC +3 closed · push |
 LA @  GBMon, Dec 19 20:15 ET | GB +8 | 39.5 | LA 12 at GB 24GB +8 closed · GB covered |
The plays
A play is an angle with a prior record, staked by that record. The model's number alone is never a play.
The angle board mined, walk-forward record behind each
ARI @ DEN LOSS ARI +1.5 2.0u
- model likes them by 0.5+, on the road, less rest than the opponent, got blown out last week 33-16 (67%)
- model likes them by 0.5+, on the road, less rest than the opponent, low total (41 or under) 39-26 (60%)
- model likes them by 0.5+, less rest than the opponent, got blown out last week, better record 18-12 (60%)
BAL @ CLE LOSS CLE -2.5 1.0u
- model fades them by 3.0+, at home, lost last week, division game 100-64 (61%)
- model fades them by 2.0+, at home, better QB, low total (41 or under) 82-54 (60%)
IND @ MIN LOSS IND +3.5 3.0u
- model fades them by 3.0+, got blown out last week, worse record, in a dome 27-10 (73%)
- model fades them by 3.0+, underdog, got blown out last week, in a dome 16-8 (67%)
- model fades them by 2.0+, got blown out last week, worse record, in a dome 35-21 (62%)
- and 2 more angles on this side
NE @ LV LOSS NE +1 3.0u
- model likes them by 0.5+, less rest than the opponent, blew someone out last week, elite QB 26-11 (70%)
- model likes them by 1.0+, less rest than the opponent, blew someone out last week, elite QB 24-11 (69%)
- model likes them by 0.5+, on the road, less rest than the opponent, elite QB 38-20 (66%)
- and 17 more angles on this side
ATL @ NO WIN NO -5 1.0u
- model fades them by 1.0+, worse record, better coach, in a dome 66-42 (61%)
- model fades them by 0.5+, worse record, better coach, in a dome 75-48 (61%)
SF @ SEA LOSS SF -3 1.0u
- model fades them by 2.0+, on the road, blew someone out last week, better coach 82-52 (61%)
- model fades them by 1.0+, on the road, blew someone out last week, better coach 102-66 (61%)
- model fades them by 0.5+, on the road, blew someone out last week, better coach 113-75 (60%)
CIN @ TB WIN TB +3.5 1.0u
- model fades them by 0.5+, at home, worse QB, elite QB 14-8 (64%)
MIA @ BUF TOTALLOSS Under 44.0 1.0u
- under when rain in the forecast, division game 141-111 (56%)
ATL @ NO TOTALLOSS Over 43.5 1.0u
- over when on turf, home team off Monday night 90-71 (56%)
LA @ GB TOTALLOSS Over 39.5 1.0u
- over when under 40 degrees, road team travelled 1,500+ miles 32-26 (55%)
PHI @ CHI TOTALWIN Under 48.0 1.0u
- under when high total (48+), home team a big underdog 56-27 (68%)
KC @ HOU TOTALLOSS Under 48.5 1.0u
- under when high total (48+), home team a big underdog 56-27 (68%)
Read it straight. Five rules frozen 2026-08-28 before Week 1, git-timestamped, append-only. Flat 1u. Historical: the frozen card went 91-83, +6.8u over 2015-2025, 7 of 11 winning seasons; the weather family 362-334-11, +19.1u over 2010-2025. This season was replayed walk-forward: the angles were chosen on the seasons before it and fired on its games, so nothing here was scored on the games that found it. It is a replay, not a published record. 2026 is the first season we posted before kickoff.