Weekly Lines · 2022
Week 11.
14 games and 9 plays, replayed walk-forward on angles chosen from the seasons before 2022. Every number is open.
This week's plays: 3-6, -2.7u flat at -110. Season through week 11: 53-51, -3.7u flat at -110.
| Game | Market | Total | Final |
|---|---|---|---|
 TEN @  GBThu, Nov 17 20:15 ET | GB +3 | 40.5 | TEN 27 at GB 17GB +3 closed · TEN covered |
 CAR @  BALSun, Nov 20 13:00 ET | BAL +13 | 42 | CAR 3 at BAL 13BAL +13 closed · CAR covered |
 CHI @  ATLSun, Nov 20 13:00 ET | ATL +3 | 48.5 | CHI 24 at ATL 27ATL +3 closed · push |
 CIN @  PITSun, Nov 20 16:25 ET | PIT -3.5 | 39 | CIN 37 at PIT 30PIT -3.5 closed · CIN covered |
 CLE @  BUFSun, Nov 20 13:00 ET | BUF +7.5 | 50.5 | CLE 23 at BUF 31BUF +7.5 closed · BUF covered |
 DAL @  MINSun, Nov 20 16:25 ET | MIN -1.5 | 48.5 | DAL 40 at MIN 3MIN -1.5 closed · DAL covered |
 DET @  NYGSun, Nov 20 13:00 ET | NYG +3 | 44 | DET 31 at NYG 18NYG +3 closed · DET covered |
 KC @  LACSun, Nov 20 20:20 ET | LAC -5.5 | 52.5 | KC 30 at LAC 27LAC -5.5 closed · LAC covered |
 LA @  NOSun, Nov 20 13:00 ET | NO +2.5 | 39.5 | LA 20 at NO 27NO +2.5 closed · NO covered |
 LV @  DENSun, Nov 20 16:05 ET | DEN +2.5 | 41.5 | LV 22 at DEN 16DEN +2.5 closed · LV covered |
 NYJ @  NESun, Nov 20 13:00 ET | NE +3.5 | 38.5 | NYJ 3 at NE 10NE +3.5 closed · NE covered |
 PHI @  INDSun, Nov 20 13:00 ET | IND -6.5 | 45.5 | PHI 17 at IND 16IND -6.5 closed · IND covered |
 WAS @  HOUSun, Nov 20 13:00 ET | HOU -3 | 41 | WAS 23 at HOU 10HOU -3 closed · WAS covered |
 SF @  ARIMon, Nov 21 20:15 ET | ARI -10 | 43.5 | SF 38 at ARI 10ARI -10 closed · SF covered |
The plays
A play is an angle with a prior record, staked by that record. The model's number alone is never a play.
The angle board mined, walk-forward record behind each
CAR @ BAL - model likes them by 3.0+, big underdog (7+), less rest than the opponent, won last week 16-8 (67%)
KC @ LAC - model likes them by 3.0+, on the road, elite QB, division game 44-26 (63%)
- model likes them by 1.0+, on the road, elite QB, division game 89-53 (63%)
- model likes them by 2.0+, on the road, elite QB, division game 57-36 (61%)
- and 1 more angle on this side
LAR @ NO - model likes them by 1.0+, underdog, elite QB, low total (41 or under) 34-16 (68%)
- model likes them by 1.0+, on the road, elite QB, low total (41 or under) 35-17 (67%)
- model likes them by 0.5+, underdog, elite QB, low total (41 or under) 35-23 (60%)
DET @ NYG - model likes them by 2.0+, favorite, worse QB, on turf 28-18 (61%)
- model likes them by 2.0+, better record, worse QB, on turf 57-38 (60%)
WAS @ HOU - model likes them by 0.5+, favorite, on the road, less rest than the opponent 22-11 (67%)
- model likes them by 0.5+, on the road, less rest than the opponent, low total (41 or under) 39-26 (60%)
SF @ ARI TOTAL- under when rain in the forecast, a new starting QB 113-76 (60%)
- under when home team a big underdog, road team travelled 1,500+ miles 41-30 (58%)
- under when rain in the forecast, division game 141-111 (56%)
WAS @ HOU TOTAL- over when in a dome, low total (41 or under) 98-64 (60%)
- over when on turf, low total (41 or under) 200-157 (56%)
LA @ NO TOTAL- over when in a dome, low total (41 or under) 98-64 (60%)
- over when on turf, low total (41 or under) 200-157 (56%)
NYJ @ NE TOTAL- over when on turf, low total (41 or under) 200-157 (56%)
Read it straight. Five rules frozen 2026-08-28 before Week 1, git-timestamped, append-only. Flat 1u. Historical: the frozen card went 91-83, +6.8u over 2015-2025, 7 of 11 winning seasons; the weather family 362-334-11, +19.1u over 2010-2025. This season was replayed walk-forward: the angles were chosen on the seasons before it and fired on its games, so nothing here was scored on the games that found it. It is a replay, not a published record. 2026 is the first season we posted before kickoff.