Weekly Lines · 2022
Week 12.
16 games and 12 plays, replayed walk-forward on angles chosen from the seasons before 2022. Every number is open.
This week's plays: 9-3, +8.7u flat at -110. Season through week 12: 62-54, +5.0u flat at -110.
| Game | Market | Total | Final |
|---|---|---|---|
 BUF @  DETThu, Nov 24 12:30 ET | DET -10 | 54 | BUF 28 at DET 25DET -10 closed · DET covered |
 NE @  MINThu, Nov 24 20:20 ET | MIN +2.5 | 42.5 | NE 26 at MIN 33MIN +2.5 closed · MIN covered |
 NYG @  DALThu, Nov 24 16:30 ET | DAL +10.5 | 45.5 | NYG 20 at DAL 28DAL +10.5 closed · NYG covered |
 ATL @  WASSun, Nov 27 13:00 ET | WAS +3.5 | 40.5 | ATL 13 at WAS 19WAS +3.5 closed · WAS covered |
 BAL @  JAXSun, Nov 27 13:00 ET | JAX -3.5 | 43 | BAL 27 at JAX 28JAX -3.5 closed · JAX covered |
 CHI @  NYJSun, Nov 27 13:00 ET | NYJ +8.5 | 36.5 | CHI 10 at NYJ 31NYJ +8.5 closed · NYJ covered |
 CIN @  TENSun, Nov 27 13:00 ET | TEN -1 | 43 | CIN 20 at TEN 16TEN -1 closed · CIN covered |
 DEN @  CARSun, Nov 27 13:00 ET | CAR -1 | 36.5 | DEN 10 at CAR 23CAR -1 closed · CAR covered |
 GB @  PHISun, Nov 27 20:20 ET | PHI +6.5 | 46 | GB 33 at PHI 40PHI +6.5 closed · PHI covered |
 HOU @  MIASun, Nov 27 13:00 ET | MIA +14 | 47 | HOU 15 at MIA 30MIA +14 closed · MIA covered |
 LAC @  ARISun, Nov 27 16:05 ET | ARI -2.5 | 48.5 | LAC 25 at ARI 24ARI -2.5 closed · ARI covered |
 LA @  KCSun, Nov 27 16:25 ET | KC +16.5 | 42 | LA 10 at KC 26KC +16.5 closed · LA covered |
 LV @  SEASun, Nov 27 16:05 ET | SEA +4 | 47.5 | LV 40 at SEA 34SEA +4 closed · LV covered |
 NO @  SFSun, Nov 27 16:25 ET | SF +9.5 | 44 | NO 0 at SF 13SF +9.5 closed · SF covered |
 TB @  CLESun, Nov 27 13:00 ET | CLE -3 | 42 | TB 17 at CLE 23CLE -3 closed · CLE covered |
 PIT @  INDMon, Nov 28 20:15 ET | IND +2.5 | 40 | PIT 24 at IND 17IND +2.5 closed · PIT covered |
The plays
A play is an angle with a prior record, staked by that record. The model's number alone is never a play.
The angle board mined, walk-forward record behind each
LAC @ ARI - model likes them by 1.0+, underdog, got blown out last week, elite QB 42-25 (63%)
- model likes them by 1.0+, got blown out last week, worse record, elite QB 32-20 (62%)
- model likes them by 0.5+, less rest than the opponent, elite QB, better coach 58-37 (61%)
- and 5 more angles on this side
CIN @ TEN - model likes them by 1.0+, favorite, on the road, less rest than the opponent 18-8 (69%)
- model likes them by 0.5+, favorite, on the road, less rest than the opponent 22-11 (67%)
- model likes them by 0.5+, on the road, less rest than the opponent, elite QB 38-20 (66%)
- and 3 more angles on this side
HOU @ MIA - model fades them by 0.5+, big underdog (7+), less rest than the opponent, worse record 28-12 (70%)
- model fades them by 0.5+, big underdog (7+), less rest than the opponent, lost last week 24-12 (67%)
- model fades them by 0.5+, big underdog (7+), less rest than the opponent, worse QB 25-14 (64%)
- and 3 more angles on this side
CHI @ NYJ - model fades them by 2.0+, at home, better QB, low total (41 or under) 82-54 (60%)
PIT @ IND - model fades them by 0.5+, worse record, in a dome, low total (41 or under) 36-23 (61%)
LA @ KC TOTAL- under when rain in the forecast, a new starting QB 113-76 (60%)
DEN @ CAR TOTAL- under when rain in the forecast, a new starting QB 113-76 (60%)
ATL @ WAS TOTAL- under when rain in the forecast, a new starting QB 113-76 (60%)
PIT @ IND TOTAL- over when in a dome, low total (41 or under) 98-64 (60%)
- over when on turf, low total (41 or under) 200-157 (56%)
BUF @ DET TOTAL- under when high total (48+), home team a big underdog 56-27 (68%)
LAC @ ARI TOTAL- over when high total (48+), home team off Monday night 53-34 (61%)
NO @ SF TOTAL- over when home team off Monday night, road team travelled 1,500+ miles 42-26 (62%)
Read it straight. Five rules frozen 2026-08-28 before Week 1, git-timestamped, append-only. Flat 1u. Historical: the frozen card went 91-83, +6.8u over 2015-2025, 7 of 11 winning seasons; the weather family 362-334-11, +19.1u over 2010-2025. This season was replayed walk-forward: the angles were chosen on the seasons before it and fired on its games, so nothing here was scored on the games that found it. It is a replay, not a published record. 2026 is the first season we posted before kickoff.