Weekly Lines · 2022
Week 8.
15 games and 6 plays, replayed walk-forward on angles chosen from the seasons before 2022. Every number is open.
This week's plays: 2-4, -1.4u flat at -110. Season through week 8: 41-41, -4.4u flat at -110.
| Game | Market | Total | Final |
|---|---|---|---|
 BAL @  TBThu, Oct 27 20:15 ET | TB +2 | 46 | BAL 27 at TB 22TB +2 closed · BAL covered |
 ARI @  MINSun, Oct 30 13:00 ET | MIN +4 | 48.5 | ARI 26 at MIN 34MIN +4 closed · MIN covered |
 CAR @  ATLSun, Oct 30 13:00 ET | ATL +4.5 | 41 | CAR 34 at ATL 37ATL +4.5 closed · CAR covered |
 CHI @  DALSun, Oct 30 13:00 ET | DAL +10.5 | 43 | CHI 29 at DAL 49DAL +10.5 closed · DAL covered |
 DEN @  JAXSun, Oct 30 09:30 ET | JAX +1 | 41 | DEN 21 at JAX 17JAX +1 closed · DEN covered |
 GB @  BUFSun, Oct 30 20:20 ET | BUF +10.5 | 47 | GB 17 at BUF 27BUF +10.5 closed · GB covered |
 LV @  NOSun, Oct 30 13:00 ET | NO -1 | 48.5 | LV 0 at NO 24NO -1 closed · NO covered |
 MIA @  DETSun, Oct 30 13:00 ET | DET -3.5 | 52 | MIA 31 at DET 27DET -3.5 closed · MIA covered |
 NE @  NYJSun, Oct 30 13:00 ET | NYJ -3 | 40 | NE 22 at NYJ 17NYJ -3 closed · NE covered |
 NYG @  SEASun, Oct 30 16:25 ET | SEA +3 | 44.5 | NYG 13 at SEA 27SEA +3 closed · SEA covered |
 PIT @  PHISun, Oct 30 13:00 ET | PHI +11 | 43 | PIT 13 at PHI 35PHI +11 closed · PHI covered |
 SF @  LASun, Oct 30 16:25 ET | LA -1 | 42 | SF 31 at LA 14LA -1 closed · SF covered |
 TEN @  HOUSun, Oct 30 16:05 ET | HOU -1 | 39 | TEN 17 at HOU 10HOU -1 closed · TEN covered |
 WAS @  INDSun, Oct 30 16:25 ET | IND +3 | 40.5 | WAS 17 at IND 16IND +3 closed · WAS covered |
 CIN @  CLEMon, Oct 31 20:15 ET | CLE -3 | 45 | CIN 13 at CLE 32CLE -3 closed · CLE covered |
The plays
A play is an angle with a prior record, staked by that record. The model's number alone is never a play.
The angle board mined, walk-forward record behind each
CIN @ CLE - model likes them by 1.0+, on the road, elite QB, division game 89-53 (63%)
- model likes them by 2.0+, on the road, elite QB, division game 57-36 (61%)
- model likes them by 0.5+, on the road, elite QB, division game 96-62 (61%)
LV @ NO - model fades them by 3.0+, better QB, in a dome, high total (48+) 29-14 (67%)
- model fades them by 3.0+, better QB, on turf, high total (48+) 45-25 (64%)
- model fades them by 2.0+, favorite, blew someone out last week, in a dome 55-31 (64%)
- and 5 more angles on this side
WAS @ IND TOTAL- over when in a dome, low total (41 or under) 98-64 (60%)
- over when on turf, low total (41 or under) 200-157 (56%)
TEN @ HOU TOTAL- over when in a dome, low total (41 or under) 98-64 (60%)
- over when on turf, low total (41 or under) 200-157 (56%)
CAR @ ATL TOTAL- over when in a dome, low total (41 or under) 98-64 (60%)
- over when on turf, low total (41 or under) 200-157 (56%)
NE @ NYJ TOTAL- over when on turf, low total (41 or under) 200-157 (56%)
Read it straight. Five rules frozen 2026-08-28 before Week 1, git-timestamped, append-only. Flat 1u. Historical: the frozen card went 91-83, +6.8u over 2015-2025, 7 of 11 winning seasons; the weather family 362-334-11, +19.1u over 2010-2025. This season was replayed walk-forward: the angles were chosen on the seasons before it and fired on its games, so nothing here was scored on the games that found it. It is a replay, not a published record. 2026 is the first season we posted before kickoff.