Weekly Lines · 2022
Week 5.
16 games and 12 plays, replayed walk-forward on angles chosen from the seasons before 2022. Every number is open.
This week's plays: 8-4, +3.6u flat at -110. Season through week 5: 31-26, +1.1u flat at -110.
| Game | Market | Total | Final |
|---|---|---|---|
 IND @  DENThu, Oct 6 20:15 ET | DEN +3.5 | 42 | IND 12 at DEN 9DEN +3.5 closed · IND covered |
 ATL @  TBSun, Oct 9 13:00 ET | TB +10.5 | 46 | ATL 15 at TB 21TB +10.5 closed · ATL covered |
 CHI @  MINSun, Oct 9 13:00 ET | MIN +10 | 44 | CHI 22 at MIN 29MIN +10 closed · CHI covered |
 CIN @  BALSun, Oct 9 20:20 ET | BAL +3 | 47.5 | CIN 17 at BAL 19BAL +3 closed · CIN covered |
 DAL @  LASun, Oct 9 16:25 ET | LA +5.5 | 42 | DAL 22 at LA 10LA +5.5 closed · DAL covered |
 DET @  NESun, Oct 9 13:00 ET | NE +3 | 46.5 | DET 0 at NE 29NE +3 closed · NE covered |
 HOU @  JAXSun, Oct 9 13:00 ET | JAX +7 | 44 | HOU 13 at JAX 6JAX +7 closed · HOU covered |
 LAC @  CLESun, Oct 9 13:00 ET | CLE -1 | 47 | LAC 30 at CLE 28CLE -1 closed · LAC covered |
 MIA @  NYJSun, Oct 9 13:00 ET | NYJ -3 | 46 | MIA 17 at NYJ 40NYJ -3 closed · NYJ covered |
 NYG @  GBSun, Oct 9 09:30 ET | GB +8.5 | 42 | NYG 27 at GB 22GB +8.5 closed · NYG covered |
 PHI @  ARISun, Oct 9 16:25 ET | ARI -5.5 | 48.5 | PHI 20 at ARI 17ARI -5.5 closed · ARI covered |
 PIT @  BUFSun, Oct 9 13:00 ET | BUF +14 | 44 | PIT 3 at BUF 38BUF +14 closed · BUF covered |
 SEA @  NOSun, Oct 9 13:00 ET | NO +5.5 | 45.5 | SEA 32 at NO 39NO +5.5 closed · NO covered |
 SF @  CARSun, Oct 9 16:05 ET | CAR -6 | 40 | SF 37 at CAR 15CAR -6 closed · SF covered |
 TEN @  WASSun, Oct 9 13:00 ET | WAS -1 | 43 | TEN 21 at WAS 17WAS -1 closed · TEN covered |
 LV @  KCMon, Oct 10 20:15 ET | KC +7.5 | 51.5 | LV 29 at KC 30KC +7.5 closed · LV covered |
The plays
A play is an angle with a prior record, staked by that record. The model's number alone is never a play.
The angle board mined, walk-forward record behind each
CIN @ BAL WIN CIN +3 1.0u
- model likes them by 1.0+, on the road, elite QB, division game 89-53 (63%)
- model likes them by 2.0+, on the road, elite QB, division game 57-36 (61%)
- model likes them by 0.5+, on the road, elite QB, division game 96-62 (61%)
HOU @ JAC WIN JAC -7 1.0u
- model fades them by 2.0+, better record, bad QB, division game 27-16 (63%)
- model fades them by 1.0+, better record, bad QB, division game 37-23 (62%)
- model fades them by 2.0+, at home, bad QB, division game 35-23 (60%)
- and 1 more angle on this side
DAL @ LAR WIN LAR -5.5 1.0u
- model fades them by 1.0+, worse record, better QB, in a dome 56-36 (61%)
- model fades them by 1.0+, got blown out last week, worse record, in a dome 41-27 (60%)
SEA @ NO LOSS NO -5.5 1.0u
- model fades them by 3.0+, at home, lost last week, in a dome 60-36 (62%)
- model fades them by 1.0+, worse record, better coach, in a dome 66-42 (61%)
- model fades them by 0.5+, worse record, better coach, in a dome 75-48 (61%)
- and 1 more angle on this side
SF @ CAR LOSS SF -6 1.0u
- model fades them by 1.0+, on the road, less rest than the opponent, low total (41 or under) 30-17 (64%)
- model fades them by 2.0+, less rest than the opponent, better coach, low total (41 or under) 32-19 (63%)
- model fades them by 1.0+, on the road, blew someone out last week, low total (41 or under) 38-23 (62%)
- and 12 more angles on this side
ATL @ TB WIN TB -10.5 1.0u
- model fades them by 3.0+, at home, better coach, division game 84-53 (61%)
- model fades them by 3.0+, at home, lost last week, division game 100-64 (61%)
- model fades them by 3.0+, at home, elite QB, division game 40-26 (61%)
DAL @ LA TOTALLOSS Over 42.0 1.0u
- over when on turf, home team off Monday night 90-71 (56%)
SF @ CAR TOTALWIN Over 40.0 1.0u
- over when low total (41 or under), early season 214-171 (56%)
- over when early season, road team travelled 1,500+ miles 185-150 (55%)
PHI @ ARI TOTALLOSS Over 48.5 1.0u
- over when early season, road team travelled 1,500+ miles 185-150 (55%)
LAC @ CLE TOTALWIN Over 47.0 1.0u
- over when early season, road team travelled 1,500+ miles 185-150 (55%)
SEA @ NO TOTALWIN Over 45.5 1.0u
- over when early season, road team travelled 1,500+ miles 185-150 (55%)
NYG @ GB TOTALWIN Over 42.0 1.0u
- over when early season, road team travelled 1,500+ miles 185-150 (55%)
Read it straight. Five rules frozen 2026-08-28 before Week 1, git-timestamped, append-only. Flat 1u. Historical: the frozen card went 91-83, +6.8u over 2015-2025, 7 of 11 winning seasons; the weather family 362-334-11, +19.1u over 2010-2025. This season was replayed walk-forward: the angles were chosen on the seasons before it and fired on its games, so nothing here was scored on the games that found it. It is a replay, not a published record. 2026 is the first season we posted before kickoff.