Weekly Lines · 2022
Week 16.
16 games and 10 plays, replayed walk-forward on angles chosen from the seasons before 2022. Every number is open.
This week's plays: 6-4, +3.6u flat at -110. Season through week 16: 79-72, -1.3u flat at -110.
| Game | Market | Total | Final |
|---|---|---|---|
 JAX @  NYJThu, Dec 22 20:15 ET | NYJ +2.5 | 36.5 | JAX 19 at NYJ 3NYJ +2.5 closed · JAX covered |
 ATL @  BALSat, Dec 24 13:00 ET | BAL +6.5 | 35 | ATL 9 at BAL 17BAL +6.5 closed · BAL covered |
 BUF @  CHISat, Dec 24 13:00 ET | CHI -8 | 40 | BUF 35 at CHI 13CHI -8 closed · BUF covered |
 CIN @  NESat, Dec 24 13:00 ET | NE -3 | 42 | CIN 22 at NE 18NE -3 closed · CIN covered |
 DET @  CARSat, Dec 24 13:00 ET | CAR -2.5 | 43.5 | DET 23 at CAR 37CAR -2.5 closed · CAR covered |
 HOU @  TENSat, Dec 24 14:00 ET | TEN +3 | 34 | HOU 19 at TEN 14TEN +3 closed · HOU covered |
 LV @  PITSat, Dec 24 20:15 ET | PIT +2.5 | 38.5 | LV 10 at PIT 13PIT +2.5 closed · PIT covered |
 NO @  CLESat, Dec 24 13:00 ET | CLE +3 | 32 | NO 17 at CLE 10CLE +3 closed · NO covered |
 NYG @  MINSat, Dec 24 13:00 ET | MIN +4.5 | 48 | NYG 24 at MIN 27MIN +4.5 closed · NYG covered |
 PHI @  DALSat, Dec 24 16:25 ET | DAL +4 | 48 | PHI 34 at DAL 40DAL +4 closed · DAL covered |
 SEA @  KCSat, Dec 24 13:00 ET | KC +10.5 | 50.5 | SEA 10 at KC 24KC +10.5 closed · KC covered |
 WAS @  SFSat, Dec 24 16:05 ET | SF +6.5 | 37.5 | WAS 20 at SF 37SF +6.5 closed · SF covered |
 DEN @  LASun, Dec 25 16:30 ET | LA -3 | 36.5 | DEN 14 at LA 51LA -3 closed · LA covered |
 GB @  MIASun, Dec 25 13:00 ET | MIA +3.5 | 49 | GB 26 at MIA 20MIA +3.5 closed · GB covered |
 TB @  ARISun, Dec 25 20:20 ET | ARI -7.5 | 41.5 | TB 19 at ARI 16ARI -7.5 closed · ARI covered |
 LAC @  INDMon, Dec 26 20:15 ET | IND -3.5 | 44.5 | LAC 20 at IND 3IND -3.5 closed · LAC covered |
The plays
A play is an angle with a prior record, staked by that record. The model's number alone is never a play.
The angle board mined, walk-forward record behind each
GB @ MIA - model likes them by 0.5+, on the road, less rest than the opponent, elite QB 38-20 (66%)
- model likes them by 0.5+, less rest than the opponent, elite QB, better coach 58-37 (61%)
- model likes them by 0.5+, less rest than the opponent, won last week, elite QB 61-40 (60%)
LAC @ IND - model likes them by 0.5+, favorite, on the road, less rest than the opponent 22-11 (67%)
CIN @ NE - model fades them by 0.5+, at home, worse QB, elite QB 14-8 (64%)
- model fades them by 1.0+, lost last week, worse QB, elite QB 13-8 (62%)
- model fades them by 1.0+, at home, worse QB, elite QB 12-8 (60%)
NO @ CLE - model fades them by 0.5+, underdog, less rest than the opponent, better coach 40-26 (61%)
- model fades them by 0.5+, on the road, less rest than the opponent, low total (41 or under) 35-23 (60%)
WAS @ SF - model fades them by 1.0+, on the road, less rest than the opponent, low total (41 or under) 30-17 (64%)
- model fades them by 1.0+, on the road, less rest than the opponent, worse record 41-26 (61%)
- model fades them by 0.5+, on the road, less rest than the opponent, low total (41 or under) 35-23 (60%)
- and 1 more angle on this side
DEN @ LA TOTAL- over when in a dome, low total (41 or under) 98-64 (60%)
- over when on turf, low total (41 or under) 200-157 (56%)
- over when on turf, home team off Monday night 90-71 (56%)
JAX @ NYJ TOTAL- over when on turf, low total (41 or under) 200-157 (56%)
LV @ PIT TOTAL- over when under 40 degrees, road team travelled 1,500+ miles 32-26 (55%)
SEA @ KC TOTAL- over when under 40 degrees, road team travelled 1,500+ miles 32-26 (55%)
TB @ ARI TOTAL- under when home team a big underdog, road team travelled 1,500+ miles 41-30 (58%)
Read it straight. Five rules frozen 2026-08-28 before Week 1, git-timestamped, append-only. Flat 1u. Historical: the frozen card went 91-83, +6.8u over 2015-2025, 7 of 11 winning seasons; the weather family 362-334-11, +19.1u over 2010-2025. This season was replayed walk-forward: the angles were chosen on the seasons before it and fired on its games, so nothing here was scored on the games that found it. It is a replay, not a published record. 2026 is the first season we posted before kickoff.