Weekly Lines · 2022
Week 14.
13 games and 7 plays, replayed walk-forward on angles chosen from the seasons before 2022. Every number is open.
This week's plays: 2-5, -3.5u flat at -110. Season through week 14: 70-59, +7.5u flat at -110.
| Game | Market | Total | Final |
|---|---|---|---|
 LV @  LAThu, Dec 8 20:15 ET | LA -6.5 | 42.5 | LV 16 at LA 17LA -6.5 closed · LA covered |
 BAL @  PITSun, Dec 11 13:00 ET | PIT +1.5 | 37 | BAL 16 at PIT 14PIT +1.5 closed · BAL covered |
 CAR @  SEASun, Dec 11 16:25 ET | SEA +3.5 | 44.5 | CAR 30 at SEA 24SEA +3.5 closed · CAR covered |
 CLE @  CINSun, Dec 11 13:00 ET | CIN +4.5 | 47 | CLE 10 at CIN 23CIN +4.5 closed · CIN covered |
 HOU @  DALSun, Dec 11 13:00 ET | DAL +17 | 44.5 | HOU 23 at DAL 27DAL +17 closed · HOU covered |
 JAX @  TENSun, Dec 11 13:00 ET | TEN +3 | 42 | JAX 36 at TEN 22TEN +3 closed · JAX covered |
 KC @  DENSun, Dec 11 16:05 ET | DEN -8.5 | 44.5 | KC 34 at DEN 28DEN -8.5 closed · DEN covered |
 MIA @  LACSun, Dec 11 20:20 ET | LAC -3 | 54.5 | MIA 17 at LAC 23LAC -3 closed · LAC covered |
 MIN @  DETSun, Dec 11 13:00 ET | DET +2.5 | 51.5 | MIN 23 at DET 34DET +2.5 closed · DET covered |
 NYJ @  BUFSun, Dec 11 13:00 ET | BUF +10 | 43.5 | NYJ 12 at BUF 20BUF +10 closed · NYJ covered |
 PHI @  NYGSun, Dec 11 13:00 ET | NYG -7.5 | 44.5 | PHI 48 at NYG 22NYG -7.5 closed · PHI covered |
 TB @  SFSun, Dec 11 16:25 ET | SF +3.5 | 38 | TB 7 at SF 35SF +3.5 closed · SF covered |
 NE @  ARIMon, Dec 12 20:15 ET | ARI -2 | 44 | NE 27 at ARI 13ARI -2 closed · NE covered |
The plays
A play is an angle with a prior record, staked by that record. The model's number alone is never a play.
The angle board mined, walk-forward record behind each
MIN @ DET - model fades them by 2.0+, favorite, blew someone out last week, in a dome 55-31 (64%)
JAC @ TEN - model fades them by 1.0+, on the road, got blown out last week, bad QB 24-15 (62%)
- model fades them by 2.0+, on the road, got blown out last week, bad QB 20-13 (61%)
BAL @ PIT - model fades them by 3.0+, at home, better coach, low total (41 or under) 70-40 (64%)
- model fades them by 2.0+, at home, better coach, low total (41 or under) 94-59 (61%)
- model fades them by 3.0+, at home, better coach, division game 84-53 (61%)
- and 6 more angles on this side
CAR @ SEA - model likes them by 3.0+, less rest than the opponent, won last week, on turf 32-19 (63%)
NYJ @ BUF TOTAL- under when rain in the forecast, a new starting QB 113-76 (60%)
- under when rain in the forecast, division game 141-111 (56%)
PHI @ NYG TOTAL- under when rain in the forecast, division game 141-111 (56%)
TB @ SF TOTAL- under when rain in the forecast, a new starting QB 113-76 (60%)
Read it straight. Five rules frozen 2026-08-28 before Week 1, git-timestamped, append-only. Flat 1u. Historical: the frozen card went 91-83, +6.8u over 2015-2025, 7 of 11 winning seasons; the weather family 362-334-11, +19.1u over 2010-2025. This season was replayed walk-forward: the angles were chosen on the seasons before it and fired on its games, so nothing here was scored on the games that found it. It is a replay, not a published record. 2026 is the first season we posted before kickoff.