Weekly Lines · 2022
Week 4.
16 games and 12 plays, replayed walk-forward on angles chosen from the seasons before 2022. Every number is open.
This week's plays: 5-7, -2.7u flat at -110. Season through week 4: 23-22, -2.5u flat at -110.
| Game | Market | Total | Final |
|---|---|---|---|
 MIA @  CINThu, Sep 29 20:15 ET | CIN +4 | 48.5 | MIA 15 at CIN 27CIN +4 closed · CIN covered |
 ARI @  CARSun, Oct 2 16:05 ET | CAR +1 | 44 | ARI 26 at CAR 16CAR +1 closed · ARI covered |
 BUF @  BALSun, Oct 2 13:00 ET | BAL -3 | 50 | BUF 23 at BAL 20BAL -3 closed · push |
 CHI @  NYGSun, Oct 2 13:00 ET | NYG +3 | 39 | CHI 12 at NYG 20NYG +3 closed · NYG covered |
 CLE @  ATLSun, Oct 2 13:00 ET | ATL -1 | 48 | CLE 20 at ATL 23ATL -1 closed · ATL covered |
 DEN @  LVSun, Oct 2 16:25 ET | LV +2.5 | 45.5 | DEN 23 at LV 32LV +2.5 closed · LV covered |
 JAX @  PHISun, Oct 2 13:00 ET | PHI +6.5 | 44 | JAX 21 at PHI 29PHI +6.5 closed · PHI covered |
 KC @  TBSun, Oct 2 20:20 ET | TB +1 | 46.5 | KC 41 at TB 31TB +1 closed · KC covered |
 LAC @  HOUSun, Oct 2 13:00 ET | HOU -5.5 | 45 | LAC 34 at HOU 24HOU -5.5 closed · LAC covered |
 MIN @  NOSun, Oct 2 09:30 ET | NO -4 | 42 | MIN 28 at NO 25NO -4 closed · NO covered |
 NE @  GBSun, Oct 2 16:25 ET | GB +10 | 40.5 | NE 24 at GB 27GB +10 closed · NE covered |
 NYJ @  PITSun, Oct 2 13:00 ET | PIT +3 | 41 | NYJ 24 at PIT 20PIT +3 closed · NYJ covered |
 SEA @  DETSun, Oct 2 13:00 ET | DET +3 | 48.5 | SEA 48 at DET 45DET +3 closed · SEA covered |
 TEN @  INDSun, Oct 2 13:00 ET | IND +4.5 | 43 | TEN 24 at IND 17IND +4.5 closed · TEN covered |
 WAS @  DALSun, Oct 2 13:00 ET | DAL +3 | 40.5 | WAS 10 at DAL 25DAL +3 closed · DAL covered |
 LA @  SFMon, Oct 3 20:15 ET | SF +1 | 42 | LA 9 at SF 24SF +1 closed · SF covered |
The plays
A play is an angle with a prior record, staked by that record. The model's number alone is never a play.
The angle board mined, walk-forward record behind each
CHI @ NYG LOSS CHI +3 1.0u
- model likes them by 2.0+, won last week, bad QB, on turf 33-22 (60%)
NE @ GB WIN GB -10 1.0u
- model fades them by 3.0+, at home, better coach, low total (41 or under) 70-40 (64%)
- model fades them by 2.0+, at home, better coach, low total (41 or under) 94-59 (61%)
- model fades them by 2.0+, favorite, better coach, low total (41 or under) 147-93 (61%)
- and 6 more angles on this side
JAC @ PHI LOSS JAC +6.5 1.0u
- model likes them by 1.0+, on the road, blew someone out last week, bad QB 22-14 (61%)
DEN @ LV LOSS LV -2.5 1.0u
- model fades them by 3.0+, lost last week, division game, in a dome 48-28 (63%)
- model fades them by 3.0+, at home, lost last week, in a dome 60-36 (62%)
- model fades them by 3.0+, at home, lost last week, division game 100-64 (61%)
- and 1 more angle on this side
NYJ @ PIT LOSS NYJ +3 1.0u
- model fades them by 1.0+, on the road, less rest than the opponent, low total (41 or under) 30-17 (64%)
- model fades them by 1.0+, on the road, got blown out last week, bad QB 24-15 (62%)
- model fades them by 0.5+, on the road, less rest than the opponent, low total (41 or under) 35-23 (60%)
- and 1 more angle on this side
KC @ TB WIN TB -1 1.0u
- model fades them by 0.5+, favorite, worse QB, elite QB 20-11 (64%)
- model fades them by 0.5+, at home, worse QB, elite QB 14-8 (64%)
- model fades them by 1.0+, favorite, worse QB, elite QB 18-11 (62%)
- and 2 more angles on this side
WAS @ DAL TOTALLOSS Over 40.5 1.0u
- over when in a dome, low total (41 or under) 98-64 (60%)
- over when on turf, low total (41 or under) 200-157 (56%)
- over when on turf, home team off Monday night 90-71 (56%)
- and 1 more angle on this side
CHI @ NYG TOTALLOSS Over 39.0 1.0u
- over when on turf, low total (41 or under) 200-157 (56%)
- over when on turf, home team off Monday night 90-71 (56%)
- over when low total (41 or under), early season 214-171 (56%)
NE @ GB TOTALWIN Over 40.5 1.0u
- over when low total (41 or under), early season 214-171 (56%)
ARI @ CAR TOTALLOSS Over 44.0 1.0u
- over when early season, road team travelled 1,500+ miles 185-150 (55%)
SEA @ DET TOTALWIN Over 48.5 1.0u
- over when early season, road team travelled 1,500+ miles 185-150 (55%)
MIN @ NO TOTALWIN Over 42.0 1.0u
- over when early season, road team travelled 1,500+ miles 185-150 (55%)
Read it straight. Five rules frozen 2026-08-28 before Week 1, git-timestamped, append-only. Flat 1u. Historical: the frozen card went 91-83, +6.8u over 2015-2025, 7 of 11 winning seasons; the weather family 362-334-11, +19.1u over 2010-2025. This season was replayed walk-forward: the angles were chosen on the seasons before it and fired on its games, so nothing here was scored on the games that found it. It is a replay, not a published record. 2026 is the first season we posted before kickoff.